Week 12 NFL: ATS recap of every game


It was another wild NFL betting weekend, and there are still games to be played, including a Tuesday night showdown between Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Here is a recap of every game this week from a betting perspective, in case you missed any of them:

Houston Texans (-3, 52.5) at Detroit Lions

Adrian Peterson turned back the clock with a 1-yard TD run for the Lions and then J.J. Watt did the same with a 19-yard INT return for the Texans, but then Deshaun Watson took over. Watson (17-for-25, 318 yards, 4 TDs) threw first-half TD passes to RBs C.J. Prosise and Duke Johnson for a 23-14 halftime lead. Then, after the teams traded FGs in the third quarter, he hit WR Will Fuller V for 40-yard and 34-yard TD passes in just over two minutes time to blow the game open and put it Over the total.

Final score: Texans 41, Lions 25

ATS winner: Texans

Total: Over 52.5

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 46)

The final score is misleading as this game was close through the first three quarters with Washington only leading 20-16. RB Antonio scored his second and third TDs of the game to put the Football Team ahead 34-16 (and put the game Over the betting total). Washington, which also cashed for money-line bettors at 125, completed a season sweep and moved into first place at 4-7 in the NFC Least (later to be matched by the New York Giants on Sunday with the 3-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night). The Cowboys’ loss eliminated 90 contestants in the Circa Survivor as contest as the most-picked team in the special “Thanksgiving Week” that only included two games after the Ravens-Steelers game was postponed.

Final score: Football Team 41, Cowboys 16

ATS winner: Football Team

Total: Over 46

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5, 53) at Atlanta Falcons

The Raiders’ offense looked lost in the first half, but were only trailing 16-3 at halftime as it was looking like a field-goal fest as Younghoe Koo kicked three first-half FGs. However, Atlanta LB Deion Jones picked off Derek Carr and ran it back 67 yards for a TD early in the third quarter to break the game open. The Raiders never threatened as they turned the ball over five times and only managed 243 yards for the game despite facing a prevent defense. With the Raiders managing only two FGs -- and the Falcons settling for two more Koo FGs in the second half to give him five on the game -- the game fell short of the Over/Under. The Falcons easily cashed for money-line bettors at + 160.

Final score: Falcons 43, Raiders 6

ATS winner: Falcons

Total: Under 53

Arizona Cardinals (-1, 50.5) at New England Patriots

The Cardinals opened as 2.5-point favorites and it was bet down to -1 by kickoff, and the game could have gone either way just like a pick-’em game is expected to be. The Cardinals led 10-0 after the first quarter, but the Patriots’ defense kept them in the game even though the offense managed only 179 yards. New England’s perennial RB-by-committee was led this week by James White scoring two rushing TDs to put the Pats ahead 17-10 late in the third quarter. The Cardinals re-rallied to tied the game 17-17 on Kenyan Drake’s 1-yard TD run with 8:02 left in regulation and had a chance to take the lead, but Zane Gonzalez missed a 45-yard FG with 1:47 left. Cam Newton then led a 7-play, 33-yard drive (aided by an unnecessary roughness penalty on Arizona’s Isaiah Simmons) to set up Nick Folk’s game-winning 50-yard FG as time expired for the win as + 100 underdogs on the money line.

Final score: Patriots 20, Cardinals 17

ATS winner: Patriots

Total: Under 50.5

New York Giants (-6.5, 45) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Giants were the most-picked team in Circa Survivor for Week 12, but it wasn’t easy, especially after losing QB Daniel Jones to a hamstring injury. The Bengals, playing their first game this season without star rookie QB Joe Burrow, were competitive the whole game. The Giants didn’t get over the spread -- or ahead by more than one score -- until Graham Gano’s fourth FG put them ahead 19-10 with 3:54 to play. But New York backers who thought they were going to luck into a cover were disappointed when QB Brandon Allen led the Bengals on a 72-yard TD drive capped by a 1-yard TD pass to Tee Higgins to get back in the back door. Nonetheless, the Giants’ win moved them into a first-place tie with Washington in the NFC Least at 4-7, pending the 3-6-1 Eagles’ Monday night date with the Seahawks.

Final score: Giants 19, Bengals 17

ATS winner: Bengals

Total: Under 45

Cleveland Browns (-7, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Browns had a balanced attack as they racked up 459 yards with Baker Mayfield throwing for 258 yards and 2 TDs (including eight passes to WR Jarvis Landry for 143 yards and one of those TDs) and Nick Chubb rushing for 144 yards and another TD. However, the lowly Jaguars, with journeyman QB Mike Glennon starting at TD, stuck around the whole game and got within the spread on James Robinson’s 4-yard TD with 2:14 left (the TD also put the game Over the total), aided by a controversial roughing the passer penalty. However, the two-point conversion failed and the Browns were able to run out the clock.

Final score: Browns 27, Jaguars 25

ATS winner: Jaguars

Total: Over 48.5

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 50)

The Vikings led 10-7 at halftime, but Carolina’s Jeremy Chinn returned a fumble 17 yards for a TD and then miraculously returned another fumble 28 yards for another TD just 10 seconds later (believed to be the first time a defensive player has scored TDs on back-to-back plays from scrimmage). The Panthers led 24-13 after Joey Slye’s 40-yard FG with 11:31 to play, but Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins hit Justin Jefferson with a 10-yard TD pass to pull the Vikings within 24-21 after the two-point conversion. Vikings WR Chad Beebe muffed a punt to set up another Slye FG to put the Panthers ahead 27-21 -- and then redeemed himself by catching the go-ahead 10-yard TD pass from Cousins with :46 left (also put the game Over the total). But this wild game wasn’t over until Slye missed a 54-yard FG wide left with :01 on the clock.

Final score: Vikings 28, Panthers 27

ATS winner: Panthers

Total: Over 50

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 51.5)

Titans RB Derrick Henry carried the load again with 178 yards rushing and 3 TDs as the Titans took a one-game lead in the AFC South. The game was actually tied 14-14 after Jacoby Brissett’s 1-yard TD run early in the second quarter, but Henry scored his second and third TDs of the game to lead the Titans to a commanding 35-14 halftime lead as the game total almost went Over in the first 30 minutes. The Titans coasted from there and, even when the Colts pulled within 38-26 in the hopes of a miracle comeback, A.J. Brown returned the ensuing onside kick 42 yards for a TD to wrap up the upset at + 130 on the money line.

Final score: Titans 45, Colts 26

ATS winner: Titans

Total: Over 51.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-4, 51.5)

Josh Allen only threw for 157 yards (WR Cole Beasley threw another on a trick play), but he ran for another and had the Bills mostly in control of this game as they led 17-6 at halftime and 24-14 entering the fourth quarter. However, three second-half turnovers by Buffalo kept the Chargers in the game and the point spread was still in doubt with more than three minutes to play after a Tyler Bass FG extended the Bills’ lead to 27-17. Needing to get two scores to pull out the victory -- or at least a TD to cover for L.A. backers -- the Chargers didn’t get any due to a combination of time-management errors (and it didn’t help as coach Anthony Lynn wasted timeouts earlier in the second half) and poor play-calling, even though Justin Herbert hit a Hail Mary on 4th-and-27 with :45 to play.

Final score: Bills 27, Chargers 17

ATS winner: Bills

Total: Under 51.5

Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 46) at New York Jets

Sam Darnold returned for the Jets and led a 9-play, 55-yard opening drive that ended with Sergio Castillo’s 38-yard FG to take an early 3-0 lead, but that was it for the New York highlights as they only gained 260 yards total for the game and didn’t score again. Ryan Fitzpatrick started for Miami in place of injured Tua Tagovailoa and threw for 257 yards and two TDs as the Dolphins dominated the rest of the way. The Under was never in doubt.

Final score: Dolphins 20, Jets 3

ATS winner: Dolphins

Total: Under 46

New Orleans Saints (-17.5, 36.5) at Denver Broncos

This was the most talked-about point spread of the week as the Saints were 6-point road favorites until Saturday’s announcement that the Broncos’ three rostered QBs were unable to play due to COVID protocols. The line went back on the betting boards and Saints -13.5 and it quickly went to -14 and continued to steam all the way to -17.5 by kickoff. The Broncos opened the game in the “wildcat” formation with RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman taking direct snaps while WR-turned-emergency QB Kendall Hinton only completed 1 of 9 passes for 13 yards and threw two INTs. Despite the lopsided final score, the Denver defense actually kept the Broncos in the game as they were only trailing 7-0 with just over two minutes left in the first half until a low direct snap got away from Lindsay and was recovered by Kwon Alexander to set up Saints QB Taysom Hill’s second rushing TD. Hinton’s INT then set up a New Orleans FG to make it 17-0 (staying Under the low first-half total of 18 points). In fact, it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that the Saints finally got over the inflated point spread when RB Latavius Murray’s 36-yard TD run put them ahead 24-3. Murray. The game stayed Under the low total of 36.5 points, though Murray’s insurance TD with 6:03 to play actually put it Over the even lower second-half total of 14.5 

Final score: Saints 31, Broncos 3

ATS winner: Saints

Total: Under 36.5

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, 44.5)

The injury-riddled 49ers came in with a three-game losing streak, but pulled the 200 money-line upset to keep their playoff hopes alive by sweeping the Rams for the second straight year. They looked like the better team most of the game as Robbie Gould’s 46-yard FG game the 49ers a 17-3 lead with 4:30 left in the third quarter, but a 41-yard FG by Matt Gay, a 20-yard fumble return by Troy Hill and a 1-yard TD run by Cam Akers gave the Rams 17 unanswered points and a 20-17 lead with 14:17 left in regulation. However, the 49ers re-rallied as Gould tied the game 20-20 with 3:11 to play and then hit a 42-yard game-winning FG as time expired. The game stayed Under the betting total despite two defensive TDs.

Final score: 49ers 23, Rams 20

ATS winner: 49ers

Total: Under 44.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 56.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill stole the show with TD receptions of 75 and 44 yards as he had 203 receiving yards in the first quarter alone (third-most receiving yards in a quarter) on the way to having 269 yards on 13 receptions and all three of Patrick Mahomes’ three TD passes. The Chiefs led 20-7 at halftime and extended the lead to 27-10 on the third Mahomes-to-Hill TD pass with seven minutes left in the third quarter, but Tom Brady rallied the Bucs with a 31-yard TD pass to Mike Evans with 12:44 to play and then a 7-yard TD pass to Evans to get within the spread at 27-24 with 4:10 left. The Chiefs picked up three first downs to run out the clock and secure the victory.

Final score: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24

ATS winner: Buccaneers

Total: Under 56.5

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 44.5)

Aaron Rodgers threw TD passes to WR Davante Adams, TE Mercedes Lewis and WR Allen Lazard on the Packers’ first three drives and then Preston Smith returned a fumble for another 14-yard TD as the Packers jumped out to a 27-3 lead. The Bears’ offense also moved the ball with Mitchell Trubisky getting the start for the first time since Week 3, but the Packers won the turnover battle 3-0 to keep the Bears from keeping up. In the third quarter, Rodgers threw his fourth TD pass to TE Robert Tonyan and Jamaal Williams added a 13-yard TD to extend the Packers’ lead to 41-10 and put the game Over the betting total. The Bears scored two fourth-quarter TDs to actually get within a TD and a two-point conversion of getting a back-door cover for earlier Chicago backers who got + 8.5 to + 9.5 with 3:21 remaining, but Adams recovered the ensuing onsides kick and Rodgers picked up two first downs to put the Packers into victory formation.

Final score: Packers 41, Bears 25

ATS winner: Packers

Total: Over 44.5

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