WEEK 12 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS

By Bruce Marshall  () 

BOWLING GREEN at MIAMI (OHIO)

BG maintaining the roughly 33% ATS mark for coach Scot Loeffler (3-6 TY) that it had for the preceding Jinks/Pelini era (11-25 vs. spread 2016-18). Chuck Martin’s Miami again closing fast, now 20-7 vs. spread in last half of regular season since 2015 (3-0 TY). Road team, however, has covered last three meetings. Tech edge — Miami, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at TOLEDO

NIU was 12-4 as visiting dog from 2013-18, 2-2 this year in role for Thomas Hammock. Home team 2-0-1 vs. spread last three meetings. Home teams are 7-1-1 vs. line in Toledo games TY. Rockets 3-1-1 at Glass Bowl vs. spread. Tech edge — Slight to Toledo, based on team and recent series trends.

BUFFALO at KENT STATE

Bulls surging with four spread W’s in a row and have won and covered last two in series. Tech edge — Buffalo, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH

Mack Brown 3-1 as dog TY, Heels 12-4-1 as dogs since late 2017. Pitt 2-3 vs. spread at Heinz Field TY, Pat Narduzzi 12-18-1 vs. spread as host since 2015. Heels 6-0 SU, 5-1 vs. line last six meetings. Tech edge — UNC, based on team and series trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at MARSHALL

Bulldogs have won last eight SU TY, 6-1 vs. spread last seven in 2019. Skip Holtz 17-6-1 as dog since 2014 (1-1 TY). Herd 0-5 vs. spread at home TY, no covers last six as host. Tech edge — La Tech, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE

Jeff Tedford 23-11-3 vs. line with Fresno since 2017, though 3-5-1 TY. Bulldogs 2-1 as road dogs TY, 8-1 as dogs away from home since 2017. Aztecs just

2-9 vs. line at home since LY. Dog team has covered last three in series. Tech edge — Fresno, based on team and series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at KANSAS STATE K-State 7-2 vs. line TY for Chris Klieman, Wildcats 9-2 vs. spread since late 2018. Mounties 3-7-2 ATS since late 2018. Tech edge — KSU, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH

Hokies stirring a bit with covers in four of last five TY. Jackets 2-6-1 vs. line in debut for Geoff Collins, 0-4 at home. Paul Johnson had covered last three in series for GT, however. Tech edge — VT, based on recent trends.

TULANE at TEMPLE

Green Wave on 6-1 spread uptick, 8-2 vs. points last 10 since late 2018. However, Owls 4-1 vs. spread at home TY. Tech edge — Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.

INDIANA at PENN STATE

Hoosiers on 5-1 SU and spread uptick this year, covered last four as Big Ten road dogs. James Franklin no covers last three at Happy Valley TY. Tech edge — Indiana, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA

Bearcats 3-1 as visiting chalk since LY, though USF has covered last four in series. USF just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 at Tampa after Temple loss. Tech edge — Slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at DUKE

Orange sagging this season, no covers last five or seven of last eight in 2019. David Cutcliffe just 7-9-1 as chalk since 2017. Tech edge — Duke, based on recent ’Cuse woes.

OHIO STATE at RUTGERS

Buckeyes on eight-game cover streak, Rutgers 0-6 vs. spread in Big Ten this year. OSU has won and covered all five in series since Scarlet Knights joined Big Ten, no margin less than 32. Last three years combined score

166-3. Last four years 215 -10! Tech edge — OSU, based on team and series trends.

LOUISVILLE at NC STATE

Louisville only 2-4 vs. spread last six TY, but Scott Satterfield teams still 18-7-1 vs. line at Appalachian State and with Cardinals since late 2017. Wolfpack on 1-7 spread skid TY. Tech edge — Louisville, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at IOWA

Floyd of Rosedale. Gophers on quite a roll, 11-0 SU since late 2018, covered six in a row. Iowa, however, has won last four Floyds and 2-0-1 vs. line in those. Kirk Ferentz 7-4 as home chalk since LY and has won SU in last eight Floyd fights at Iowa City. Tech edge — Iowa, based on series trends.

WAKE FOREST at CLEMSON

Dave Clawson 10-3 as road dog since 2016, 15-8-1 overall as dog since 2016. Wake has covered four of last five meetings, though Clemson won 63-3 LY. Dabo Swinney 6-1 vs. spread in ACC TY, 12-1-1 vs. line last 14 league games. Tech edge — Slight to Wake, based on extended series trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BALL STATE

Jim McElwain 7-1 vs. spread last eight TY. Ball has covered five of last six after WMU result. But Cards just 3-6 vs. spread last nine at Muncie. Tech edge — CMU, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN

ULM on 3-8 spread skid since late 2018 but has covered last three vs. Eagles dating to 2014. Warhawks better lately on road, however, where they are 4-3 vs. line last seven. Eagles no covers last three Sun Belt games at home. Tech edge — Slight to ULM, based on team and series trends.

MASSACHUSETTS at NORTHWESTERN UMass 1-9 vs. line TY and no covers in five on road. Cats, however, no covers last six at Evanston, and Pat Fitzgerald no covers last eight as chalk. Tech edge — Slight to NU, based on UMass woes.

TROY at TEXAS STATE

Chip Lindsey just 3-6 vs. spread in Troy debut, though Jake Spavital just 1-7-1 vs. spread in his TSU debut. Trojans have covered three of last four meetings, though not LY. Bobcats 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven as Sun Belt hosts. Tech edge — Slight to Troy, based on team and series trends.

NEW MEXICO at BOISE STATE

Bob Davie has had some success vs. Boise, covering five of last seven meetings, including last three on blue carpet. Lobos only 10-24 last 34 vs. line since late 2016. Broncos 19-37 as blue-carpet chalk since late 2010. Tech edge — Slight to UNM, based on extended series trends.

UCLA at UTAH

Chip Kelly and Bruins rallying with wins and covers in last three TY. Utes, however, have won and covered last five in 2019 and have won and covered last three in this series. Tech edge — Slight to Utah, based on recent series trends.

AIR FORCE at COLORADO STATE

Rams rallying with covers last three and five of last

six. Dog team has covered last five meetings. Tech edge — Slight to CSU, based on recent trends.

WYOMING at UTAH STATE

Craig Bohl on 11-3 spread uptick, 5-1 last six vs. line away. Wyoming has covered last three in series. Utags 2-4 vs. spread last six this season. Tech edge — Wyo, based on team and series trends.

APPALACHIAN STATE at GEORGIA STATE App State 6-3 vs. line TY and 19-6-1 since late 2017 vs. spread. Mountaineers 5-2 vs. spread last seven on Sun Belt road. GSU 3-0-1 as dog TY. Road team 3-0-1 vs. line last four meetings. Tech edge — Slight to App, based on team trends.

NAVY at NOTRE DAME

Navy on 10- 2 spread uptick, still an outside shot at New Year’s Six bowl. Midshipmen

4-1 last five as dogs and 6-3-1 in role since LY. Navy has covered last three in series and has covered 12 of last 14 at South Bend. Tech edge — Navy, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA STATE at OREGON STATE

Herm Edwards only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 since late 2018. Sun Devils have won and covered last two meetings. Beavers 6-2 vs. spread last eight TY after loss to Washington. Tech edge — Slight to OSU, based on recent trends.

USC at CALIFORNIA

Bears snapped 14-game SU losing streak to USC in LY’s 15-14 win at Coliseum. Underdog team 8-1 vs. line in Cal games TY, 12-2-1 last 15 since late LY. Tech edge — Slight to Cal, based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at OREGON

Wildcats 3-1 SU and ATS last four regular-season meetings, though Ducks won 2014 Pac-12 title game. But Kevin Sumlin no covers last four and seven of nine TY (2-3 as dog). Ducks 2-3 vs. spread at Autzen TY and 5-7 last 12 vs. spread at home. Tech edge — Slight to UO, based on recent trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at ARKANSAS STATE Coastal 3-1 vs. line away TY, though just 5-4 vs. spread. ASU 4-1 vs. points last five as Sun Belt host. Red Wolves big wins and covers vs. Chants last two years. Tech edge — Ark State, based on series trends.

TEXAS-EL PASO at UAB

Miners 6-3 vs. spread last nine on road. Blazers 11-1-1 vs. points at Legion Field vs. FBS foes since returning in 2017. Tech edge — UAB, based on team trends.

GEORGIA at AUBURN

Kirby Smart 3-0 vs. line away TY, 6-0 last six vs. spread in regular season away from Athens, counting LY’s SEC title game. Smart has also won and covered last two vs. Gus Malzahn, and Bulldogs 5-1 SU and vs. line last six meetings. Malzahn, however, is 8-2 vs. line last 10 since late 2018 and has covered both as a dog this season. Tech edge — Slight to Georgia, based on series trends.

LOUISIANA at SOUTH ALABAMA

Ragin’ Cajuns keep rollin’ and now 8- 1 vs. line TY after Coastal romp, 16-2-2 vs. spread last 20 regular-season games for Billy Napier. USA a bit better lately with covers in four of last five. Tech edge — ULL, based on recent trends.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE

Mike Gundy had crucified KU three meetings before LY, when OSU did not cover huge price in 55-40 win. Les Miles 2-1 as road dog this year and 3-1 last four vs. spread. Gundy on 8-2 spread uptick since late LY and 10-4-1 last 15 as DD chalk. Tech edge — Slight to OSU, based on team trends.

TEXAS at IOWA STATE

Tom Herman 14-4 as dog since 2015 at Houston and Texas. ISU only 3-6 as home chalk since LY, and Matt Campbell 0-3 vs. line against Longhorns. Tech edge — Texas, based on team trends.

TCU at TEXAS TECH

Tech has covered three of last four meetings, and Red Raiders 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at Lubbock (3-1 TY). Gary Patterson 0-3 vs. line on Big 12 road TY, 1-6 last seven in role. Tech edge — Texas Tech, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR

Lincoln Riley 0-3-1 vs. spread last four as Big 12 visitor. Sooners have covered three of last four meetings vs. Bears, though Matt Rhule 9-2 last 11 as a dog. Tech edge — Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at HOUSTON

Memphis 1-3 vs. line last four TY, no covers last three on American road. UH has covered as double-digit dog last two TY, but Tigers have covered last four meetings. Tech edge — Slight to Memphis, based on series trends.

KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT

Derek Mason on 1-9 spread skid since late 2018, 3-8 vs. line last 11 as SEC host. Mark Stoops has won last three SU vs. Commodores and 7-4 vs. line last 11 since late LY. Tech edge — UK, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MICHIGAN

Mark Dantonio no covers last five or six of last seven TY, 2-10 last 12 vs. spread in regular season. MSU 0-3 as dog TY and just 4-7 in formerly good role since 2017, but Dantonio 10-1 vs. spread last 11 in series. Jim Harbaugh has covered five of last six TY. Tech edge — Slight to MSU, based on extended series trends.

FLORIDA at MISSOURI

Dan Mullen on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2018. He’s 15-8 vs. spread with Gators since LY, 4-2 vs. spread as SEC visitor. Mizzou no covers last four TY but has won and covered big last two in series. Tech edge — Slight to Florida, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at UNLV

Tony Sanchez 6-11 vs. spread since late 2016 at Sam Boyd. Nick Rolovich has covered three of last four as MW visitor. Tech edge — Hawaii, based on recent trends.

RICE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE

Owls no covers last four or six of last eight TY. Rice was 6-2 as road dog for Mike Bloomgren before dropping last two in role. MTSU 7-2 last nine as C-USA host. Tech edge — Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO Roadrunners 2-11 vs. line last 13 at Alamodome vs. FBS foes. Tech edge — USM, based on team trends.

ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE

Joe Moorhead 3-7 vs. line since late 2018. MSU 0-3 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since Moorhead arrived LY. Nick Saban 4-1 last five vs. line as SEC visitor. Tech edge — Bama, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA

Scott Frost no covers last six this year, 1-8 overall vs. line. Paul Chryst 12-4 as visiting chalk with Badgers since 2015, and Badgers have beaten Huskers six in a row SU (4-2 vs. line). Tech edge — Wisconsin, based on recent and series trends.

LSU at MISSISSIPPI

Tigers have covered two of last three after facing Bama. LSU has covered last five away from Baton Rouge, and Ed Orgeron 3-0 SU and vs. line against Rebels. Ole Miss 5-1 vs. line L6 TY. Tech edge — Slight to LSU, based on series trends.

STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE David Shaw has no covers last five away from Farm and is 2-3 as dog since LY after Shaw 12-4-1 previously in role. Mike Leach has won last three and covered last four meetings. Tech edge — WSU, based on team and series trends.

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