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WEEK 11 NFL TRENDS

By Bruce Marshall  () 

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers on 6-1 spread run last seven this season. Browns no covers four of last five and 2-6-1 vs. line TY. Steelers 8-1 spread mark as dogs since last year. Browns 3-1-1 vs. line last five meetings, four of last five Over as well. Tech edge — Steelers and slight to Over, based on recent and totals trends.

DALLAS at DETROIT

Lions no covers last four this year, also Over 6-3 this season. Dallas 5-2-1 vs. spread last eight away, Over 7-3 last 10 regular-season games. Tech edge — Cowboys and Over, based on recent and totals trends.

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY

Sean Payton has won and covered six of last seven. Saints 9-3 vs. line last 12 away. These teams have split SU and vs. spread last four seasons, and Saints won first meeting. Bucs 7-1 as home dogs since 2017, also on 8-2 Over run since late LY. Tech edge — Over and slight to Saints, based on totals and team trends.

ATLANTA at CAROLINA

Panthers 5-2 SU and ATS last seven this year. Falcons 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. spread last seven TY, though off upset win at New Orleans. Panthers also on 7-3 Over run since late 2018. However, Falcons have won and covered last three and six of last seven meetings. Tech edge — Slight to Panthers and Over, based on recent and totals trends.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS

Jaguars 3-1 vs. line as visitors TY, also surprising 7-0-1 vs. spread last eight in this series. Unders 4-1 last five in series, though Colts on 7-3 Over run since late LY. Tech edge — Jags, based on series trends.

DENVER at MINNESOTA

Vic Fangio has covered four of last five, but Vikings on 14-3-1 home chalk run. Broncos also 15-3 Under since mid-2018 (6-3 Under TY), Minnesota Under 18-10-1 since late 2017. Tech edge — Under, based on totals trends.

NY JETS at WASHINGTON

Jets 3-6 ATS in Adam Gase’s first season. Redskins also 3-6 vs. spread. Washington on 7-3 Under run since late LY. Tech edge — Slight to Under, based on totals trends.

BUFFALO at MIAMI

Dolphins on 5-0 spread uptick, though Bills 3-1 vs. spread away TY. Bills Under 8-3 since late last year, but two of those Overs came vs. Dolphins. Tech edge — Dolphins, based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE

Texans 3-1 as dogs this year, 6-2 last eight in role. Houston 8-2 -1 last 11 away from home. Ravens 2-7-1 last 10 vs. spread at M&T Bank Stadium (1-3 TY). Tech edge — Texans, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO

Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals 5-1 vs. line last six TY, also 8-1 SU last nine in series, 8-3 vs. spread last 11 vs. SF. Niners just 3-4 ATS in last seven after Monday vs. Seahawks.

Tech edge — Cards, based on series trends.

NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA

Of course, Super Bowl LII rematch. Eagles 2-1 as dogs TY and 3-3 since LY. Bill Belichick only 4-5 vs. spread last nine as visitor, also Under 14-4 last 18 in regular season, 4-4 vs. line last eight after a regular-season loss. Tech edge — Under, based on totals trends.

CINCINNATI at OAKLAND

Raiders have covered three in a row and five of six after win over Chargers. Also Over 6-1 last seven TY. Bengals, however, actually 7-1 vs. spread last eight as true visitors and Under 7-0-1 last eight away from home. Tech edge — Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at LA RAMS

Bears won 15-6 on a Sunday night last December at Soldier Field. Chicago 1-4 SU and vs. line last five TY. Chicago also Under 13-3 since mid-2018. Rams 2-6-1 vs. spread last nine in regular season at Coliseum, also Under 8-3 last 11 since late 2018. Tech edge — Under, based on totals trends.

KANSAS CITY vs. LA CHARGERS (at Mexico City)

Philip Rivers only 2-3 vs. line away from home TY as the road mark begins to flatten, though still 9-5-1 last 15 as a dog. Chiefs have covered four of last five meetings. Chargers also Under 9-3 last

12 regular-season games, KC Over 13-5 last 18 since late 2018. Tech edge — Chiefs, based on series trends.

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