Week 11 NFL capsules

ARIZONA CARDINALS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

 

This Thursday night showdown features division rivals with identical records trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won four of their last five. Last week Arizona shocked Buffalo 32-30 on a last-second Hail Mary, although the Cardinals failed to cover as 3-point favorites. The Seahawks (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) started the season 5-0 but have struggled over the last month. They have lost three of their last four, including a 23-16 loss to the Rams last week in which they failed to cover as 3-point dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed from a 3.5- to a 5.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are backing the road dog, which has dropped the Cardinals to + 3. Arizona has value as a divisional dog (30-22, 58% ATS this season), prime-time dog (20-11 ATS, 65% ATS) and short road dog + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66% ATS). Road divisional dogs with line moves in their favor are 14-7 ATS (67%) this season. Pros are also looking at a higher-scoring game. They’ve hit the Over and steamed the total up from 56 to 58.

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at CLEVELAND BROWNS

 

At first glance, this nonconference matchup looks lopsided. The Eagles (3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) are below .500 and just got embarrassed by the Giants 27-17, losing straight up as 4.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Browns (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) are more than holding their own in the loaded AFC North and are fighting for a playoff spot. Cleveland just beat Houston 10-7, though failing to cover as a 4.5-point home favorite. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public looks at the won-lost records and picks the Browns at home laying a short spread. However, this line has fallen from Browns -3.5 to -3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the Eagles getting the hook (+ 3.5), forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line down to the key number of 3. The Eagles have value as short road dogs + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66%). We’ve also seen some respected money on this Under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 46. The forecast calls for 15-mph winds at the Dawg Pound. 

 

ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

 

These NFC South rivals are riding winning streaks. The Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) got off to a putrid 0-5 start but have gone 3-1 over their last four games, most recently beating the Broncos 34-27 and covering as 4.5-point favorites. The Saints (7-2, 4-5 ATS) have ripped off six straight wins and just took down the 49ers 27-13, covering as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7-point favorite. But we’ve seen a massive adjustment with the news that Drew Brees will miss this game due to injury and Jameis Winston will start. The quarterback switch, along with some sharp Falcons money, has dropped this line down to Saints -4.5. The Falcons have value as road divisional dogs with a line move in their favor (14-7 ATS, 67% this season). Atlanta also has a rest advantage coming off a bye, with New Orleans on regular rest. Sharp action has also hit this Under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 50.5. 

 

DETROIT LIONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

 

This NFC matchup pits non-division opponents trending in different directions. After a 1-3 start, the Lions (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) have won three of their last five, including a 30-27 win over Washington last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. After an impressive 3-2 start, the Panthers (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) have fallen on hard times and lost five straight, most recently getting crushed by the Bucs 46-23 and failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. However, it has dropped to 1.5 and gone off the board at some shops as we await word on the status of injured Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater. If he can't go, former XFL star P.J. Walker would get the nod, which would likely drop this line close to a pick-’em. Lead ref Ron Torbert has historically favored road teams (60% ATS). 

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at HOUSTON TEXANS

 

This AFC game features below-.500 non-divisional foes looking to keep their seasons alive and get back into the playoff race. The Patriots (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) were left for dead at 2-5 but have rebounded to win two straight, most recently upsetting the Ravens 23-17 on Sunday night as 7-point underdogs. The Texans (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) have the third-worst record in the AFC, and their only wins have come against the Jaguars. Last week the Texans fell to the Browns 10-7, though they covered as 4.5-point underdogs. This line opened with the Texans listed as 2.5-point home favorites. But after their impressive win over the Ravens, the Patriots are getting hammered by Pro and Joe money, flipping New England to a 2.5-point favorite. We have since seen some buyback on the Texans at an inflated + 2.5, dropping the line to 2. Houston will have value as a buy-low contrarian dog with a massively inflated line.

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

 

This AFC David-vs.-Goliath mismatch pits one of the best teams in the NFL against one of the worst. The Steelers (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) are the only undefeated team. Pittsburgh crushed Cincinnati 36-10 last week, easily covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Jaguars (1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS), who have lost eight straight, most recently falling to the Packers 24-20 but covering as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 10-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout and has no worries about laying the big number with the Steelers. Despite this lopsided betting, we’ve seen the line remain frozen at -10. At times it has briefly dipped to -9.5. This signals some liability on the Jaguars at home getting big points. Double-digit dogs are 8-6 ATS this season (57%). Home double-digit dogs are 4-0 ATS. We’ve also seen some Over money hit this total, pushing the number up from 46 to 47.5. The Steelers are 5-3-1 to the Over and the Jaguars 5-4 to the Over. 

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS at WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

 

This nonconference contest features cellar-dwellers with a combined record of 4-13-1. The Bengals (2-6-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) have been quite profitable this season, losing at a high rate but covering the vast majority of their games — except last week, when they got crushed by the Steelers 36-10 and failed to cover as 6.5-point dogs. Washington (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) hasn’t won or covered much this season. Last week Washington fell to Detroit 30-27, failing to cover as a 2.5-point dog. This line opened at a pick-’em. Respected money has come in on Alex Smith at home over visiting rookie Joe Burrow, pushing this line up to Washington -1.5. Washington has value as a buy-low bad ATS team against a sell-high good ATS team. If you’re wary of laying the points in what could be a close game, Washington is about -125 on the moneyline. Sharps have hit this Over, pushing the total up slightly from 46 to 46.5. The Bengals are 6-3 to the Over. Washington is 4-4-1.

 

TENNESSEE TITANS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

 

These AFC playoff hopefuls are looking to bounce back from disappointing losses. After an impressive 5-0 start, the Titans (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) have stumbled and lost three of four, including a 34-17 loss to the Colts on Thursday night as 1-point home dogs. Similarly, the Ravens (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) have lost two of their last three, most recently falling to the Patriots 23-17 on Sunday night, losing outright as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 7-point home favorite. Wise guys seem to think this line is a bit high and have pounced on the Titans, which has dropped this line to 6.5. Tennessee has value as a road team with a line move in its favor (46-32 ATS, 59% this season). The Titans also have a rest advantage, as they last played Thursday compared with the Ravens playing Sunday night. Pro money is leaning on a higher-scoring game, and we’ve seen this total rise from 47.5 to 49. The Titans have been great to the Over (6-2-1), while the Ravens have been an Under team (6-3). 

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS at DENVER BRONCOS

 

These AFC opponents are trending in completely different directions. The Dolphins (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) have been one of the best teams to bet on this season. Miami has won five straight (3-0 under Tua Tagovailoa) and just took down the Chargers 29-21, easily covering as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Broncos (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) have lost two straight and three of four, most recently falling to Las Vegas 37-12 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point road favorite, and respected money has hammered the Dolphins, pushing the line up to -3 or -3.5. Denver’s Drew Lock is questionable with a rib injury. If he can’t go, Brett Rypien will likely start, which could drive up this line even higher. Road teams with a line move in their favor have gone 46-32 ATS (59%) this season. Lead ref Land Clark has favored road teams historically (58% ATS). 

 

NEW YORK JETS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

 

These AFC cellar-dwellers own two of the worst records in football and are fighting for a top draft pick. The Jets (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL, though they battled hard in a 30-27 loss to the Patriots their last time out and covered as 9.5-point home underdogs. The Chargers (2-7 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 29-21, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as 9.5-point home favorites. Pros and Joes know the Jets are bad but seem to agree that this line is a bit too high, dropping the line from Chargers -9.5 to -8.5. The Jets have value as a road team with a line move in its favor (46-32 ATS. 59% this season). New York also has a rest advantage coming off a bye with the Chargers are on regular rest. Lead referee Craig Wrolstad has historically favored road teams (57% ATS). The total has ticked up slightly from 46.5 to 47. The Chargers are 6-3 to the Over, and the Jets are 5-4 to the Under. 

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

 

This nonconference showdown between division leaders is one of the most intriguing games of the week. The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the pesky Jaguars 24-20, although Green Bay failed to cover as a big 13.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three of their last four, including an impressive 34-17 win over the Titans as 1-point favorites Thursday night. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the Packers, yet we’ve seen a massive adjustment toward Indianapolis, with sharp money flipping the Colts from dogs to 2.5-point favorites. The Colts have value as contrarian favorites in a “fade the trendy dog” situation. Indianapolis has a rest advantage, having last played Thursday, while the Packers are on regular rest. We’ve also seen pro money hit this Over, pushing the total up from 49 to 51.5.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

 

These NFC opponents are trending in completely opposite directions. The Cowboys (2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS) have lost four straight. If the draft were held today, they would own the third pick. However, Dallas did battle hard its last time out, falling to the Steelers 24-19 but covering easily as a 14-point home dog. Conversely, the Vikings (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS) are one of the hottest teams in football, bouncing back from a 1-5 start to win three straight and get back into the playoff conversation. Minnesota just beat the Bears 19-13 on Monday night, covering as a 3-point road favorite. This line opened with the Vikings listed as 8.5-point home favorites. Sharp money sees some buy-low value on the road dog, which has dropped the Cowboys from + 8.5 to + 7.5. Dallas has a rest advantage coming off a bye. Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday. Dallas is also a buy-low bad ATS team against a good ATS team. Pro money has gotten down hard on this Under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 48. Lead ref Bill Vinovich has historically favored road teams (57%) and Unders (59%). 

 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

 

This Sunday night showdown features divisional rivals riding prolonged winning streaks. The Chiefs (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) have the second-best record in the NFL and have won four straight, most recently beating the Panthers 33-31 but failing to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Raiders (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won three straight and just crushed the Broncos 37-12, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs, who are also rested off a bye. However, despite this lopsided support, the line has fallen from Chiefs -7 to -6.5. Some shops are even down to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders, with pros grabbing the points with the home dogs. Las Vegas has value as a divisional dog and a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Prime-time dogs are 20-11 ATS (65%) this season. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 five weeks ago as 10.5-point dogs.

 

LOS ANGELES RAMS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

 

Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday night showdown featuring two of the NFC’s top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. The Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public has no issue laying the short spread with the Bucs after a blowout win. Despite this lopsided support, the line has stayed at 3.5, signaling a line freeze and liability on the Rams. The next move is key. If it falls to 3, that will signal pros grabbing the hook with Los Angeles. If it reverses course and rises to 4, that likely means sharp buyback is hitting Tampa. The Rams have value as short road dogs + 6 or less (37-19 ATS, 66% this season) and prime-time dogs (20-11 ATS, 65%). Pro money has also hit the Under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 47.5. Prime-time Unders are 20-11 (65%) this season.

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