Week 11 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

November 20, 2021 04:30 PM
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Fifteen games are on the board for Week 11, as the Broncos and Rams enjoy a week off. The other 30 teams will be on the field of battle, starting with Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday and ending with Giants vs. Buccaneers on Monday.

There are a lot of quarterback injuries and other issues to follow as the week goes along, but for now, let’s check out some betting trends and see how they factor into the handicaps for this week’s games.

New England Patriots (-6.5, 47) at Atlanta Falcons

The surging Patriots have won four in a row and five of their last six as they take on the Falcons. New England is coming off of its best performance of the season against the Browns and will hope to move to 7-4 SU and ATS. The Patriots have split the totals down the middle in their 10 games to this point.

Atlanta is 4-5 SU and ATS and a win would make things fairly interesting in terms of the Falcons’ hopes at making a run for one of the NFC Wild Card spots. Atlanta is 5-4 to the Over this season.

Trends:

  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • Patriots are 5-1 SU in their previous six games.
  • Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Falcons.
  • Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven Thursday games.
  • Under is 12-2 in the Patriots' last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Patriots' previous six games overall.

 

  • Falcons are 2-4 ATS in their last six games when playing at home against the Patriots.
  • Falcons are 1-5 SU in their previous six games at home.
  • Falcons are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing as the underdog.
  • Under is 5-0 in the Falcons' previous five Thursday games.

More Patriots and Falcons Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-11, 43.5)

There are a lot of QB questions with this game. The Lions could use Tim Boyle, as Jared Goff missed practice time this week with an injured oblique. The Browns could also turn to their backup, as Case Keenum took some first-team reps this week in place of Baker Mayfield, who is dealing with a ton of injuries.

The Lions are 0-8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS after covering in last week’s tie against the Steelers. The game was the sixth Under out of nine contests for Detroit on the year. The Browns were blown out to fall back to .500 at 5-5 and also lost against the spread to drop to 4-5-1. The Browns are 6-4 to the Over on their game totals.

Trends:

  • Lions are 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the Browns.
  • Lions are 0-5-1 SU in their previous six games on the road.
  • Lions are 4-1 SU in their last five games when playing on the road against the Browns.
  • Lions are 0-5 ATS in their previous five games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Lions' last four road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Lions' previous seven games overall.

 

  • Browns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Browns are 2-4 SU in their previous six games.
  • Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

More Lions and Browns Trends

 

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The 49ers scored a very nice upset win over the Rams last week to improve to 4-5 on the season. San Francisco is still just 3-6 ATS, but the Niners do appear to be moving in the right direction. They are 5-4 to the Over to this point.

The Jaguars did not follow up their win against the Bills with another victory, but did cover the spread in the loss against the Colts. Jacksonville is 2-7 SU, but 4-5 ATS with last week’s AFC South battle. Jacksonville also had yet another Under to move to 7-2 in that department.

Trends:

  • 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • 49ers are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Jaguars.
  • 49ers are 4-1 SU in their previous five games on the road.
  • 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.
  • 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games following an ATS win.
  • Over is 6-1 in the 49ers' last seven games following a SU win.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the 49ers' previous eight games as a road favorite.

 

  • Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Jaguars are 2-10 SU in their previous 12 games at home.
  • Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ previous four games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four games as an underdog.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ previous four games against a team with a losing record.

More 49ers and Jaguars Trends

 

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7, 49.5)

It wasn’t pretty, but the Colts won last week to climb back to .500 at 5-5. Indianapolis failed to cover and dropped to 6-4 in that department, but had been rather kind to bettors this season prior to that game against Jacksonville. The Colts are 6-4 to the Over.

Buffalo won and covered last week to improve to 6-3 in both departments. The Bills are 6-0 ATS when they win and 0-3 ATS when they lose. The Bills have played five games Under the total out of their nine data points thus far.

Trends:

  • Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Colts are 4-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • Colts are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against the Bills.
  • Colts are 1-4 SU in their previous five games when playing on the road against the Bills.
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.
  • Colts are 8-2 ATS in their previous 10 road games.
  • Over is 10-1 in the Colts' last 11 games against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 6-1 in the Colts' previous seven road games.

 

  • Bills are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.
  • Bills are 10-1 SU in their previous 11 games at home.
  • Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games when playing at home against the Colts.
  • Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their previous 10 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Bills' last five home games.

More Colts and Bills Trends

 

Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 44.5) at New York Jets

The Jets made something of a surprising announcement this week that Joe Flacco would start in place of injured Zach Wilson and backup QB Mike White. It would appear that the Jets might be afraid of a quarterback controversy if White plays well just as Wilson is set to return.

The Jets are just 2-7 SU and ATS, as their two outright wins against Tennessee and Cincinnati are the team’s only covers this season. The Over is 6-3 for the Jets through nine games. The Dolphins are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS, with a 6-4 mark to the Under.

Trends:

  • Dolphins are 2-7 SU in their last nine games.
  • Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their previous six games against the Jets.
  • Dolphins are 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the Jets.
  • Dolphins are 1-5 SU in their previous six games on the road.
  • Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Dolphins' previous four games against the AFC.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Dolphins’ last seven against the AFC East.

 

  • Jets are 2-8 ATS in their previous 10 games.
  • Jets are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Jets are 3-9 SU in their previous 12 games at home.
  • Jets are 0-5 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-0 in the Jets' last four games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Jets' previous five games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Over is 6-0 in the Jets' last six games as an underdog.

More Dolphins and Jets Trends

 

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43)

The Panthers had the unlikeliest win in Week 10, knocking off the Cardinals out in the desert. That win bumped Carolina back to 5-5 on the season both straight up and against the spread. The Panthers are 7-3 to the Under, as the defense is typically the star of the show.

Washington also scored a pretty unlikely win, knocking off the Buccaneers at home. That outright upset win was just the second cover of the season for Washington. The Football Team is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS. The Under is 5-4 in Washington’s games this season.

Trends:

  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games against the Panthers.
  • Washington is 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Panthers.
  • Washington is 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog.
  • Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Washington ‘s previous four games as an underdog.

 

  • Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Panthers are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games.
  • Panthers are 4-1 SU in their last five games when playing at home against the Football Team.
  • Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games as a home favorite.
  • Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Panthers' previous seven games following an ATS win.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Panthers' last six games following a SU win.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Panthers' previous six home games.

More Washington and Panthers Trends

 

Baltimore Ravens (-5, 44.5) at Chicago Bears

The Ravens suffered quite a setback against the Dolphins last Thursday night. Baltimore has not been kind to bettors this season, going just 3-6 ATS with a 6-3 SU record. The Over is 5-4 in Baltimore’s nine games, which is surprisingly low given how poorly the defense has played.

The Under is 6-3 in Chicago’s nine games this season, so maybe that is a sign of things to come in this one. The Bears are coming off of the bye this week with a 3-6 SU record and a 4-5 ATS after a close loss on Monday Night Football to the Steelers to end Week 9.

Trends:

  • Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Ravens are 12-4 SU in their previous 16 games.
  • Ravens are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against the Bears.
  • Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games as a favorite.
  • Ravens are 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 6-1 in the Ravens’ last seven road games.

 

  • Bears are 1-4 SU in their previous five games.
  • Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games as a home underdog.

More Ravens and Bears Trends

 

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2, 43)

The Eagles might be the most polarizing team in the betting markets right now, as some influential bettors really like Philadelphia and others in the industry are wondering why. Philadelphia is 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS going into Sunday’s game against the Saints. The Eagles have split their totals down the middle at 5-5.

New Orleans lost last week to the Titans, but did cover the spread to improve to 5-4 in that department. The Saints are 5-4 SU and also 5-4 in totals, meaning that they have played five Overs and four Unders through 10 weeks.

Trends:

  • Saints are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Saints are 5-10 ATS in their previous 15 games against the Eagles.
  • Saints are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Eagles.
  • Saints are 4-0 ATS in their previous four games following a SU loss.
  • Over is 5-1 in the Saints' last six games overall.

 

  • Eagles are 0-5 SU in their previous five games at home.
  • Eagles are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games as a home favorite.
  • Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 7-1 in the Eagles' previous eight games as a home favorite.

More Saints and Eagles Trends

 

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10, 44.5)

The AFC’s top team is a double-digit favorite for this week’s divisional battle against the Texans. The Titans are 8-2 SU and have been great for bettors with a 7-3 ATS mark thus far. The Over is 6-4 in Tennessee’s 10 games. This is the biggest favorite role of the season for the Titans.

The Texans have been a double-digit dog several times, so this is nothing new for Houston. This is a team that is 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS on the campaign, most of which has been played by Davis Mills. The Texans are off of the bye and Tyrod Taylor is healthy, so we’ll see what happens here. Five of Tennessee’s nine games have gone under.

Trends:

  • Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Texans are 0-8 SU in their previous eight games.
  • Texans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against the Titans.
  • Texans are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games against the Titans.
  • Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.
  • Texans are 0-4 ATS in their previous four road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Texans’ last four road games.

 

  • Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Titans are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Titans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
  • Titans are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games overall.
  • Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South.
  • Over is 11-2 in the Titans' last 13 games against a team with a losing record.

More Texans and Titans Trends

 

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 47.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Packers and Vikings meet in this NFC North rivalry game on Sunday. The Packers are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS, having won eight straight games started by Aaron Rodgers. Even with the Rodgers and Davante Adams tandem, eight of Green Bay’s 10 games have gone Under the total.

The Vikings are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS, but they’ve played a lot of games that could have gone either way. Minnesota is 5-4 to the Under, so maybe we could be looking at a low-scoring affair in the Twin Cities here.

Trends:

  • Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Packers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games on the road.
  • Packers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Vikings.
  • The under is 7-0 in the Packers’ previous seven games.
  • Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Packers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five road games.

 

  • Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
  • Vikings are 1-7 ATS in their previous eight home games.
  • Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • The underdog is 9-4 ATS in their previous 13 meetings.

More Packers and Vikings Trends

 

Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The favorite for this game has waffled back and forth, as the game is lined a pick-em or -1 either way in the 4 p.m. ET timeslot. The Bengals and Raiders are both 5-4 SU on the season and are effectively the same in the ATS department. Cincinnati is 4-4-1 and Las Vegas is 4-5, depending on the closing number.

The Bengals are 5-4 to the Under and the Raiders are 5-4 to the Over. With nearly identical records on the season, you can see why this game is lined as a coin flip with juice.

Trends:

  • Bengals are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games against the Raiders.
  • Bengals are 4-15-1 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
  • Bengals are 2-15 SU in their previous 17 games when playing on the road against the Raiders.
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a SU loss.
  • Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.

 

  • Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog.
  • Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Raiders are 2-4 SU in their last six games.
  • Over is 11-0-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games as a home underdog.

More Bengals and Raiders Trends

 

Arizona Cardinals (-2, 48) at Seattle Seahawks

The Cardinals look to be welcoming back Kyler Murray here as they play the Seahawks right before their lone bye week of the season. Arizona suffered a setback last week with the loss to the Panthers to fall to 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. The Cardinals have been one of the best teams for bettors so far this season.

Russell Wilson came back last week and got shut out by the Packers. It was the first time ever that Wilson had been shut out as a starting quarterback. The loss dropped Seattle to 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS. The Seahawks are 7-2 to the Under, but have played a few of their games with Geno Smith at quarterback.

Trends:

  • Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Cardinals are 8-2 SU in their previous 10 games.
  • Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Seahawks.
  • Cardinals are 2-4 SU in their previous six games against the Seahawks.
  • Under is 7-0 in the Cardinals’ last seven games as a road favorite.

 

  • Seahawks are 4-2 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Seahawks are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
  • Seahawks are 1-4 SU in their previous five games at home.
  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing at home against the Cardinals.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record.

More Cardinals and Seahawks Trends

 

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)

The Cowboys and Chiefs bring two high-powered offenses to the table, which is why this game features the highest total on the board. The Cowboys are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS after getting back to their winning ways in last week’s 43-3 win over the Falcons. The game did stay under the total, though, so the Cowboys are just 5-4 to the Over on the season.

Kansas City won and covered in a road favorite role last week against the Raiders to improve to 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS. The Chiefs have not covered many numbers lately, but they did there and seem to be figuring some things out lately, especially on defense. The 10 KC games have been split 5-5 in the totals department.

Trends:

  • Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Cowboys are 5-2 SU in their previous seven games against the Chiefs.
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Cowboys' last seven games as an underdog.

 

  • Chiefs are 4-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
  • Chiefs are 5-2 SU in their previous seven games this season.
  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their previous five games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five games as a favorite.

More Cowboys and Chiefs Trends

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 47)

There were a lot of questions throughout the week as to whether or not Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph would be behind center for the Steelers. As a result, a few sportsbooks didn’t even have a line up on this game and others had very low limits.

In any event, the Steelers are 5-3-1 SU on the season after last week’s tie against the Lions and just 3-6 ATS. The Chargers are 5-4 SU and 5-4 ATS through nine games. Both teams are 6-3 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Steelers are 4-0-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • Steelers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against Chargers.
  • Steelers are 10-3 SU in their previous 13 games against Chargers.
  • Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Steelers’ previous six games following an ATS loss.

 

  • Chargers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • Chargers are 9-4 SU in their previous 13 games.
  • Under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight games as a home favorite.
  • Under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ previous eight home games.

More Steelers and Chargers Trends

 

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 49.5)

The Buccaneers were one of last week’s surprise losers, falling as almost a double-digit favorite to Washington. Tampa Bay is a double-digit favorite this week for Monday Night Football against the Giants. The Bucs are 6-3 SU, but just 3-6 ATS going into MNF. The Over is 5-4 in their nine games.

The Giants are 3-6 SU, but 5-4 ATS on the season. The Under is 5-3-1 in their games. New York is on all sorts of rest after being on a bye last week.

Trends:

  • Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Giants are 4-9 SU in their previous 13 games.
  • Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Buccaneers.
  • Giants are 7-2 SU in their previous nine games against the Buccaneers.
  • Giants are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
  • Giants are 5-2 ATS in their previous seven Monday games.

 

  • Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Buccaneers are 14-3 SU in their previous 17 games.
  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 6-2 in the Buccaneers’ previous eight Monday games.

More Giants and Buccaneers Trends

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