Week 11 NFL best bets: Picks, odds for every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

November 21, 2021 07:39 AM
USATSI_17166456

Welcome to another exciting weekend in the NFL.

Our VSiN experts -- Adam Burke, Dave Tuley, Will Hill, Wes Reynolds and Matt Youmans, along with Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus -- combine to give their opinions on every Sunday game in Week 11.

Note: Lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday night.

Here are our Week 11 best bets:

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-11.5, 43.5)

Tuley: Earlier this week in Point Spread Weekly, I picked the Lions + 10, but that was before Jared Goff missed Wednesday’s practice and might not be able to start Sunday. The Lions are fresh off an ugly 16-16 tie against the Steelers, but the Lions did cover after closing as 6-point road underdogs due to Ben Roethlisberger being out. The advance line on this game last week was Browns -10, and most books reposted it at the same number, though some oddsmakers lowered it to 9.5 after the Week 10 results. I think it should have been lowered even more as the Browns had an even worse performance.

Detroit is 5-4 ATS despite their 0-8-1 record and has been competitive in most games. They should have a few wins, most notably against the Browns’ AFC North division mates in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Hopefully the Lions aren’t due for another down week (note: they’ve alternated ATS wins and losses in all nine games and are “due” for a loss), but I’m willing to take that chance.

Pick: Lions + 11.5

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 46) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Brown: After a brutal start to his NFL career, Trevor Lawrence has settled in as a quarterback capable of, at least, making the right decisions and reads within the confines of this Jaguars offense. His biggest improvement has been his turnover play rate, as he has only four such plays in the past six games. Defenses also haven’t taken advantage of his errant throws recently, which plays into previous research showing that turnover-worthy play percentage is the best way to predict future interceptions in a given matchup. Nonetheless, a turnover-worthy play doesn’t always lead to an interception, which is why this prop category consistently shows value if the right price is offered. 

Lawrence has not only been careful with the football, but he’s also hesitant to push the ball downfield. His 8.24-yard average depth of target (aDot) ranks 15th among starting quarterbacks. Although it’s not ideal to be a short aDot passer, it does help specifically within this prop category. 

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