Normally nine data points would be enough to make some definitive statements about nearly all 131 FBS teams, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this season. The Group of Five conferences have an “anybody can beat anybody” sort of feel to them this season, as we’ve seen teams look great one week and then look unrecognizable the next.
Injuries continue to mount and coaches keep getting fired, but the parity in the smaller conferences has been my biggest challenge from a power ratings standpoint. There are a lot of instances in which I’ll be very impressed with a team, but then they’ll follow it up with a dud and the market will react heavily. Beauty is also in the eye of the beholder, as some teams get more credit for their good performances than others.
Last week’s slate also featured a few games that had windy conditions and impacted a team’s performance in a big way. Ohio State couldn’t throw the ball and didn’t come anywhere close to scoring 38 points, let alone covering the 38-point spread. Purdue is a pass-first offense that was also playing in suboptimal conditions. Those weren’t the only ones, but the weather won’t be the same every week, so it can be tricky to figure out how much to hold extreme weather against a team and how much to think about the lack of versatility.
With each passing week, we’re also going to have some no-shows. Teams that can’t make a bowl, teams that don’t care for a coach and teams that just don’t have a lot of leadership or character may pack it in. It is very tough to tell if it was just a bad performance or a symptom of a bigger sickness. Just something to keep in mind as we go forward.
Here are my Week 11 Power Ratings:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Conference
|
PR
|
HFA
|
|
1
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
99.5
|
3.5
|
|
2
|
Ohio State
|
Big Ten
|
95.5
|
3.5
|
|
3
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
93.5
|
3.5
|
|
4
|
Michigan
|
Big Ten
|
91
|
3
|
|
5
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
89.5
|
2.5
|
|
6
|
Oregon
|
Pac-12
|
87.5
|
3
|
|
7
|
Texas
|
Big 12
|
87.5
|
2
|
|
8
|
TCU
|
Big 12
|
85
|
2
|
|
9
|
USC
|
Pac-12
|
84
|
2
|
|
10
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
83
|
2.5
|
|
11
|
Utah
|
Pac-12
|
82.5
|
3.5
|
|
12
|
UCLA
|
Pac-12
|
81.5
|
2
|
|
13
|
Baylor
|
Big 12
|
80.5
|
2
|
|
14
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
80.5
|
2
|
|
15
|
Kansas State
|
Big 12
|
80.5
|
2
|
|
16
|
Ole Miss
|
SEC
|
80.5
|
2
|
|
17
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
80
|
3.5
|
|
18
|
Penn State
|
Big Ten
|
79
|
2.5
|
|
19
|
Louisville
|
ACC
|
77.5
|
2
|
|
20
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
77
|
2
|
|
21
|
Minnesota
|
Big Ten
|
77
|
2
|
|
22
|
Oklahoma
|
Big 12
|
77
|
3.5
|
|
23
|
Illinois
|
Big Ten
|
76.5
|
1.5
|
|
24
|
Mississippi State
|
SEC
|
76
|
2.5
|
|
25
|
Notre Dame
|
Independent
|
76
|
3.5
|
|
26
|
North Carolina
|
ACC
|
75.5
|
2
|
|
27
|
UCF
|
AAC
|
75.5
|
3.5
|
|
28
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
75
|
3
|
|
29
|
Texas Tech
|
Big 12
|
75
|
2
|
|
30
|
Washington
|
Pac-12
|
75
|
2
|
|
31
|
Kentucky
|
SEC
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
32
|
Wake Forest
|
ACC
|
74.5
|
2.5
|
|
33
|
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten
|
74.5
|
2
|
|
34
|
Cincinnati
|
AAC
|
74
|
3.5
|
|
35
|
Iowa State
|
Big 12
|
73.5
|
2.5
|
|
36
|
Kansas
|
Big 12
|
73.5
|
1
|
|
37
|
Washington State
|
Pac-12
|
73.5
|
3
|
|
38
|
Oregon State
|
Pac-12
|
73
|
2
|
|
39
|
Fresno State
|
Mountain West
|
72.5
|
2.5
|
|
40
|
Maryland
|
Big Ten
|
72.5
|
2
|
|
41
|
Oklahoma State
|
Big 12
|
72.5
|
3
|
|
42
|
Boise State
|
Mountain West
|
72
|
2.5
|
|
43
|
East Carolina
|
AAC
|
72
|
1.5
|
|
44
|
Iowa
|
Big Ten
|
72
|
3
|
|
45
|
NC State
|
ACC
|
72
|
3
|
|
46
|
South Alabama
|
Sun Belt
|
72
|
2
|
|
47
|
Tulane
|
AAC
|
72
|
3
|
|
48
|
Pitt
|
ACC
|
71.5
|
2
|
|
49
|
Syracuse
|
ACC
|
71.5
|
2
|
|
50
|
Texas A&M
|
SEC
|
71.5
|
3.5
|
|
51
|
Missouri
|
SEC
|
71
|
2.5
|
|
52
|
Purdue
|
Big Ten
|
70
|
2
|
|
53
|
Toledo
|
MAC
|
70
|
2.5
|
|
54
|
Appalachian State
|
Sun Belt
|
69.5
|
3.5
|
|
55
|
James Madison
|
Sun Belt
|
69.5
|
2
|
|
56
|
Troy
|
Sun Belt
|
69.5
|
2
|
|
57
|
UTSA
|
Conference USA
|
69
|
2
|
|
58
|
West Virginia
|
Big 12
|
68.5
|
2.5
|
|
59
|
Arizona State
|
Pac-12
|
68
|
2.5
|
|
60
|
BYU
|
Independent
|
68
|
2
|
|
61
|
SMU
|
AAC
|
68
|
3.5
|
|
62
|
Air Force
|
Mountain West
|
67.5
|
2.5
|
|
63
|
Arizona
|
Pac-12
|
67.5
|
2
|
|
64
|
Auburn
|
SEC
|
67
|
3
|
|
65
|
Coastal Carolina
|
Sun Belt
|
67
|
2
|
|
66
|
Liberty
|
Independent
|
67
|
3.5
|
|
67
|
South Carolina
|
SEC
|
67
|
2
|
|
68
|
California
|
Pac-12
|
66.5
|
2
|
|
69
|
Houston
|
AAC
|
66
|
2
|
|
70
|
Michigan State
|
Big Ten
|
66
|
2
|
|
71
|
Stanford
|
Pac-12
|
66
|
2
|
|
72
|
Western Kentucky
|
Conference USA
|
66
|
2
|
|
73
|
Duke
|
ACC
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
74
|
Marshall
|
Sun Belt
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
75
|
Memphis
|
AAC
|
65.5
|
3.5
|
|
76
|
San Jose State
|
Mountain West
|
65.5
|
2
|
|
77
|
UAB
|
Conference USA
|
65
|
3.5
|
|
78
|
Miami (FL)
|
ACC
|
64
|
2.5
|
|
79
|
Nebraska
|
Big Ten
|
64
|
1.5
|
|
80
|
North Texas
|
Conference USA
|
64
|
2
|
|
81
|
Tulsa
|
AAC
|
64
|
2
|
|
82
|
Virginia
|
ACC
|
64
|
3
|
|
83
|
Georgia Southern
|
Sun Belt
|
63
|
2.5
|
|
84
|
Georgia State
|
Sun Belt
|
62.5
|
2
|
|
85
|
Indiana
|
Big Ten
|
62
|
2
|
|
86
|
Louisiana
|
Sun Belt
|
61.5
|
3
|
|
87
|
Georgia Tech
|
ACC
|
61
|
2
|
|
88
|
Ohio
|
MAC
|
61
|
2
|
|
89
|
Buffalo
|
MAC
|
60.5
|
3.5
|
|
90
|
San Diego State
|
Mountain West
|
60.5
|
2
|
|
91
|
Utah State
|
Mountain West
|
60
|
2
|
|
92
|
Army
|
Independent
|
59.5
|
3
|
|
93
|
Southern Miss
|
Sun Belt
|
59.5
|
2
|
|
94
|
UNLV
|
Mountain West
|
59.5
|
1
|
|
95
|
Arkansas State
|
Sun Belt
|
59
|
2
|
|
96
|
Old Dominion
|
Sun Belt
|
59
|
2
|
|
97
|
Louisiana-Monroe
|
Sun Belt
|
58
|
2
|
|
98
|
Rutgers
|
Big Ten
|
58
|
1.5
|
|
99
|
Vanderbilt
|
SEC
|
58
|
1
|
|
100
|
Wyoming
|
Mountain West
|
58
|
2.5
|
|
101
|
Kent State
|
MAC
|
57
|
2.5
|
|
102
|
Navy
|
AAC
|
57
|
2
|
|
103
|
Northwestern
|
Big Ten
|
57
|
2
|
|
104
|
Rice
|
Conference USA
|
57
|
1
|
|
105
|
Virginia Tech
|
ACC
|
57
|
2
|
|
106
|
Middle Tennessee
|
Conference USA
|
56.5
|
2.5
|
|
107
|
Texas State
|
Sun Belt
|
56.5
|
1.5
|
|
108
|
Ball State
|
MAC
|
56
|
2
|
|
109
|
Florida Atlantic
|
Conference USA
|
56
|
3
|
|
110
|
Eastern Michigan
|
MAC
|
55.5
|
2
|
|
111
|
Miami (OH)
|
MAC
|
55.5
|
3
|
|
112
|
Colorado
|
Pac-12
|
55
|
2
|
|
113
|
Boston College
|
ACC
|
54
|
2
|
|
114
|
Central Michigan
|
MAC
|
54
|
2.5
|
|
115
|
Louisiana Tech
|
Conference USA
|
54
|
2
|
|
116
|
Temple
|
AAC
|
54
|
2
|
|
117
|
Bowling Green
|
MAC
|
53
|
1
|
|
118
|
UConn
|
Independent
|
52.5
|
1
|
|
119
|
Northern Illinois
|
MAC
|
52
|
2
|
|
120
|
UTEP
|
Conference USA
|
52
|
1
|
|
121
|
South Florida
|
AAC
|
50
|
2
|
|
122
|
Colorado State
|
Mountain West
|
48
|
1.5
|
|
123
|
Nevada
|
Mountain West
|
47.5
|
3
|
|
124
|
Western Michigan
|
MAC
|
47.5
|
2
|
|
125
|
Charlotte
|
Conference USA
|
46.5
|
2
|
|
126
|
Hawaii
|
Mountain West
|
46
|
2
|
|
127
|
New Mexico State
|
Independent
|
45.5
|
2
|
|
128
|
Akron
|
MAC
|
44.5
|
1
|
|
129
|
New Mexico
|
Mountain West
|
44
|
1
|
|
130
|
FIU
|
Conference USA
|
43.5
|
2
|
|
131
|
UMass
|
Independent
|
37
|
1.5
|
Here are my Week 11 PR Adjustments:
Up: Ohio +2.5, Central Michigan +2.5, Bowling Green +2.5, Coastal Carolina +3, Army +1.5, Virginia +2, Michigan +2, NC State +2, Georgia Tech +3, Iowa +2, Louisville +2, Pitt +2, Kansas +3, Liberty +3, Wisconsin +2, Texas +2.5, Missouri +1.5, BYU +2, Colorado State +1.5, Louisiana Tech +2.5, Florida +2, Tulane +2, Georgia State +2, Vanderbilt +2.5, Mississippi State +2, Iowa State +2.5, Utah State +3, UTSA +2, North Texas +2.5, Georgia Southern +2, UL Monroe +2.5, Georgia +1, Akron +3, UNLV +2, Duke +2
Down: Northern Illinois -3.5, Western Michigan -2.5, App State -1.5, Air Force -2.5, Rutgers -4, Wake Forest -2.5, Purdue -3, James Madison -2, Syracuse -2, Oklahoma State -4, Arkansas -1.5, Kansas State -1.5, Kentucky -2.5, Ohio State -2, Boise State -2, San Jose State -2.5, Middle Tennessee -2, Texas A&M -3, Troy -1.5, Southern Miss -3, South Carolina -1.5, Auburn -3, West Virginia -4, New Mexico -5, UAB -3, Texas State -2, UTEP -2, Clemson -2.5, USF -3, Tennessee -2.5, Eastern Michigan -2, Virginia Tech -3, Miami (FL) -2.5, Cal -1.5, TCU -1.5, FIU -2, Alabama -2
Injury: Oklahoma State -6 (if Sanders out), Toledo -5 (if Finn out), UAB -4 (if Hopkins out), UCF -4 (if Plumlee out), Tulsa -6 (if Brin out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Syracuse -5 (if Shrader out), Minnesota -4 (if Morgan out)
Some notes on the biggest movers:
New Mexico -5: I’ve had New Mexico rated too high relative to the market, so it was time for a big correction. They’ve been really bad relative to expectation as one of the worst ATS teams in the country. ATS performance relative to expectation seems to be a driving force for power ratings adjustments and that’s a change I’ll make for next season.
Oklahoma State -4: Spencer Sanders was a bit of a surprise absence for the Cowboys last weekend, but this team has put forth a couple duds in a row. To be honest, this may not be enough with the current state of the team, but we’ll see if a good head coach like Mike Gundy can right the ship and if Sanders returns.
West Virginia -4: This is a horrible defense and now the offense is on the fritz as well after an awful performance from JT Daniels against Iowa State.
Rutgers -4: I’m still not low enough on Rutgers relative to the market, but this is a pretty big move at this time of the year.
Coastal Carolina, Akron, Liberty, Georgia Tech, Utah State +3: I’m far more inclined to move teams down significantly than move them up at this stage of the season. These were my biggest increases for a variety of reasons, but I’m looking more for teams to quit than suddenly figure a lot of things out.
Here are my Week 11 spreads:
|
Date
|
Away
|
Home
|
My Line
|
|
11/8
|
Eastern Michigan
|
Akron
|
+10
|
|
|
Ohio
|
Miami Ohio
|
+2.5
|
|
|
Ball State
|
Toledo (w/ Finn)
|
-16.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11/9
|
Northern Illinois
|
Western Michigan
|
+2.5
|
|
|
Buffalo
|
Central Michigan
|
+4
|
|
|
Kent State
|
Bowling Green
|
+3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11/10
|
Tulsa (w/ Brin)
|
Memphis
|
-5
|
|
|
Georgia Southern
|
Louisiana
|
-1.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11/11
|
East Carolina
|
Cincinnati
|
-4.5
|
|
|
Colorado
|
USC
|
-31
|
|
|
Fresno State
|
UNLV
|
+12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11/12
|
North Carolina
|
Wake Forest
|
-1.5
|
|
|
Florida State
|
Syracuse (w/ Shrader)
|
+7
|
|
|
Liberty
|
UConn
|
+13.5
|
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
Duke
|
-10.5
|
|
|
Notre Dame
|
Navy (N – Baltimore)
|
+19
|
|
|
Oklahoma
|
West Virginia
|
+6
|
|
|
Pitt
|
Virginia
|
+4.5
|
|
|
Indiana
|
Ohio State
|
-37
|
|
|
Missouri
|
Tennessee
|
-21
|
|
|
Maryland
|
Penn State
|
-9
|
|
|
Boston College
|
NC State
|
-21
|
|
|
South Carolina
|
Florida
|
-11
|
|
|
Vanderbilt
|
Kentucky
|
-18.5
|
|
|
Nebraska
|
Michigan
|
-30
|
|
|
Miami FL
|
Georgia Tech
|
+1
|
|
|
Louisville
|
Clemson
|
-6
|
|
|
Kansas (w/ Daniels)
|
Texas Tech
|
-3.5
|
|
|
SMU
|
USF
|
+16
|
|
|
Southern Miss
|
Coastal Carolina
|
-9.5
|
|
|
UL Monroe
|
Georgia State
|
-6.5
|
|
|
App State
|
Marshall
|
+2
|
|
|
James Madison
|
Old Dominion
|
+8.5
|
|
|
UCF (w/ Plumlee)
|
Tulane
|
+0.5
|
|
|
Northwestern
|
Minnesota
|
-22
|
|
|
Purdue
|
Illinois
|
-8
|
|
|
Texas State
|
South Alabama
|
-17.5
|
|
|
Rutgers
|
Michigan State
|
-10
|
|
|
Temple
|
Houston
|
-14
|
|
|
Kansas State
|
Baylor
|
-2
|
|
|
UMass
|
Arkansas State
|
-24
|
|
|
Rice
|
Western Kentucky
|
-11
|
|
|
Stanford
|
Utah
|
-20
|
|
|
Arizona State
|
Washington State
|
-8.5
|
|
|
Cal
|
Oregon State
|
-8.5
|
|
|
Washington
|
Oregon
|
-15.5
|
|
|
Arizona
|
UCLA
|
-16
|
|
|
San Jose State
|
San Diego State
|
+3
|
|
|
TCU
|
Texas
|
-4.5
|
|
|
Texas A&M
|
Auburn
|
+1.5
|
|
|
Army
|
Troy
|
-12
|
|
|
Alabama
|
Ole Miss
|
+11
|
|
|
Iowa State
|
Oklahoma State
|
-2
|
|
|
Wisconsin
|
Iowa
|
-0.5
|
|
|
LSU
|
Arkansas
|
+4
|
|
|
Georgia
|
Mississippi State
|
+21
|
|
|
New Mexico
|
Air Force
|
-26
|
|
|
Charlotte
|
Middle Tennessee
|
-12.5
|
|
|
North Texas
|
UAB (w/ Hopkins)
|
-4.5
|
|
|
Louisiana Tech
|
UTSA
|
-17
|
|
|
Wyoming
|
Colorado State
|
+8.5
|
|
|
FAU
|
FIU
|
+10.5
|
|
|
Boise State
|
Nevada
|
+21.5
|
|
|
Utah State
|
Hawaii
|
+12
|
Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:
Maryland +12.5 (+9.5) vs. Penn State: Maryland is a team that needs to throw the ball to be successful, but last week’s weather prohibited Taulia Tagovailoa from doing that. Penn State rolled Indiana as I expected, but I happen to think Maryland’s a decent team when at full strength. I’d love to catch a 13 here, especially since this line jumped a bit after open.
UL Monroe +14 (+6.5) vs. Georgia State: This is easily my biggest discrepancy for Week 11. I think the Warhawks are really playing well all things considered. Georgia State has bounced back from a tough non-conference slate, but 14 points is a lot for a team that doesn’t have a great defense.
Temple +19.5 (+14) vs. Houston: The Owls still aren’t a good team, but they found their offensive stride against USF last week and have played competitively in their two most recent losses to Tulsa and Navy. Maybe I’m not giving Houston enough credit for their body of work, but this feels a few points high.
Cal +13 (+8.5) vs. Oregon State: I looked at these two teams a lot trying to figure out what I’m missing. Oregon State has not been the same team since QB Chance Nolan went out, even though his numbers aren’t really any better than Ben Gulbranson’s. Blowing out Colorado is one thing. Blowing out a competitive Cal team is another. I couldn’t get to double digits with my line here.
TCU +7 (+4.5) vs. Texas: I actually did some mental gymnastics to even get this line to this point, but I think a lot of people are actively looking to bet against TCU. They’ve faced a lot of backup QBs, been on the right side of turnover variance and have covered some numbers that they shouldn’t have. Last week, they had a punt return touchdown and cashed in on two short fields in the fourth quarter when Texas Tech went for it on fourth down. I think 7 is too high.
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