Week 11 college football power ratings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

November 7, 2022 04:22 PM
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Normally nine data points would be enough to make some definitive statements about nearly all 131 FBS teams, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this season. The Group of Five conferences have an “anybody can beat anybody” sort of feel to them this season, as we’ve seen teams look great one week and then look unrecognizable the next.

Injuries continue to mount and coaches keep getting fired, but the parity in the smaller conferences has been my biggest challenge from a power ratings standpoint. There are a lot of instances in which I’ll be very impressed with a team, but then they’ll follow it up with a dud and the market will react heavily. Beauty is also in the eye of the beholder, as some teams get more credit for their good performances than others.

Last week’s slate also featured a few games that had windy conditions and impacted a team’s performance in a big way. Ohio State couldn’t throw the ball and didn’t come anywhere close to scoring 38 points, let alone covering the 38-point spread. Purdue is a pass-first offense that was also playing in suboptimal conditions. Those weren’t the only ones, but the weather won’t be the same every week, so it can be tricky to figure out how much to hold extreme weather against a team and how much to think about the lack of versatility.

With each passing week, we’re also going to have some no-shows. Teams that can’t make a bowl, teams that don’t care for a coach and teams that just don’t have a lot of leadership or character may pack it in. It is very tough to tell if it was just a bad performance or a symptom of a bigger sickness. Just something to keep in mind as we go forward.

Here are my Week 11 Power Ratings:

Rank

Team

Conference

PR

HFA

1

Georgia

SEC

99.5

3.5

2

Ohio State

Big Ten

95.5

3.5

3

Alabama

SEC

93.5

3.5

4

Michigan

Big Ten

91

3

5

Tennessee

SEC

89.5

2.5

6

Oregon

Pac-12

87.5

3

7

Texas

Big 12

87.5

2

8

TCU

Big 12

85

2

9

USC

Pac-12

84

2

10

LSU

SEC

83

2.5

11

Utah

Pac-12

82.5

3.5

12

UCLA

Pac-12

81.5

2

13

Baylor

Big 12

80.5

2

14

Florida State

ACC

80.5

2

15

Kansas State

Big 12

80.5

2

16

Ole Miss

SEC

80.5

2

17

Clemson

ACC

80

3.5

18

Penn State

Big Ten

79

2.5

19

Louisville

ACC

77.5

2

20

Arkansas

SEC

77

2

21

Minnesota

Big Ten

77

2

22

Oklahoma

Big 12

77

3.5

23

Illinois

Big Ten

76.5

1.5

24

Mississippi State

SEC

76

2.5

25

Notre Dame

Independent

76

3.5

26

North Carolina

ACC

75.5

2

27

UCF

AAC

75.5

3.5

28

Florida

SEC

75

3

29

Texas Tech

Big 12

75

2

30

Washington

Pac-12

75

2

31

Kentucky

SEC

74.5

2

32

Wake Forest

ACC

74.5

2.5

33

Wisconsin

Big Ten

74.5

2

34

Cincinnati

AAC

74

3.5

35

Iowa State

Big 12

73.5

2.5

36

Kansas

Big 12

73.5

1

37

Washington State

Pac-12

73.5

3

38

Oregon State

Pac-12

73

2

39

Fresno State

Mountain West

72.5

2.5

40

Maryland

Big Ten

72.5

2

41

Oklahoma State

Big 12

72.5

3

42

Boise State

Mountain West

72

2.5

43

East Carolina

AAC

72

1.5

44

Iowa

Big Ten

72

3

45

NC State

ACC

72

3

46

South Alabama

Sun Belt

72

2

47

Tulane

AAC

72

3

48

Pitt

ACC

71.5

2

49

Syracuse

ACC

71.5

2

50

Texas A&M

SEC

71.5

3.5

51

Missouri

SEC

71

2.5

52

Purdue

Big Ten

70

2

53

Toledo

MAC

70

2.5

54

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

69.5

3.5

55

James Madison

Sun Belt

69.5

2

56

Troy

Sun Belt

69.5

2

57

UTSA

Conference USA

69

2

58

West Virginia

Big 12

68.5

2.5

59

Arizona State

Pac-12

68

2.5

60

BYU

Independent

68

2

61

SMU

AAC

68

3.5

62

Air Force

Mountain West

67.5

2.5

63

Arizona

Pac-12

67.5

2

64

Auburn

SEC

67

3

65

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

67

2

66

Liberty

Independent

67

3.5

67

South Carolina

SEC

67

2

68

California

Pac-12

66.5

2

69

Houston

AAC

66

2

70

Michigan State

Big Ten

66

2

71

Stanford

Pac-12

66

2

72

Western Kentucky

Conference USA

66

2

73

Duke

ACC

65.5

2

74

Marshall

Sun Belt

65.5

2

75

Memphis

AAC

65.5

3.5

76

San Jose State

Mountain West

65.5

2

77

UAB

Conference USA

65

3.5

78

Miami (FL)

ACC

64

2.5

79

Nebraska

Big Ten

64

1.5

80

North Texas

Conference USA

64

2

81

Tulsa

AAC

64

2

82

Virginia

ACC

64

3

83

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

63

2.5

84

Georgia State

Sun Belt

62.5

2

85

Indiana

Big Ten

62

2

86

Louisiana

Sun Belt

61.5

3

87

Georgia Tech

ACC

61

2

88

Ohio

MAC

61

2

89

Buffalo

MAC

60.5

3.5

90

San Diego State

Mountain West

60.5

2

91

Utah State

Mountain West

60

2

92

Army

Independent

59.5

3

93

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

59.5

2

94

UNLV

Mountain West

59.5

1

95

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

59

2

96

Old Dominion

Sun Belt

59

2

97

Louisiana-Monroe

Sun Belt

58

2

98

Rutgers

Big Ten

58

1.5

99

Vanderbilt

SEC

58

1

100

Wyoming

Mountain West

58

2.5

101

Kent State

MAC

57

2.5

102

Navy

AAC

57

2

103

Northwestern

Big Ten

57

2

104

Rice

Conference USA

57

1

105

Virginia Tech

ACC

57

2

106

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

56.5

2.5

107

Texas State

Sun Belt

56.5

1.5

108

Ball State

MAC

56

2

109

Florida Atlantic

Conference USA

56

3

110

Eastern Michigan

MAC

55.5

2

111

Miami (OH)

MAC

55.5

3

112

Colorado

Pac-12

55

2

113

Boston College

ACC

54

2

114

Central Michigan

MAC

54

2.5

115

Louisiana Tech

Conference USA

54

2

116

Temple

AAC

54

2

117

Bowling Green

MAC

53

1

118

UConn

Independent

52.5

1

119

Northern Illinois

MAC

52

2

120

UTEP

Conference USA

52

1

121

South Florida

AAC

50

2

122

Colorado State

Mountain West

48

1.5

123

Nevada

Mountain West

47.5

3

124

Western Michigan

MAC

47.5

2

125

Charlotte

Conference USA

46.5

2

126

Hawaii

Mountain West

46

2

127

New Mexico State

Independent

45.5

2

128

Akron

MAC

44.5

1

129

New Mexico

Mountain West

44

1

130

FIU

Conference USA

43.5

2

131

UMass

Independent

37

1.5

Here are my Week 11 PR Adjustments:

Up: Ohio +2.5, Central Michigan +2.5, Bowling Green +2.5, Coastal Carolina +3, Army +1.5, Virginia +2, Michigan +2, NC State +2, Georgia Tech +3, Iowa +2, Louisville +2, Pitt +2, Kansas +3, Liberty +3, Wisconsin +2, Texas +2.5, Missouri +1.5, BYU +2, Colorado State +1.5, Louisiana Tech +2.5, Florida +2, Tulane +2, Georgia State +2, Vanderbilt +2.5, Mississippi State +2, Iowa State +2.5, Utah State +3, UTSA +2, North Texas +2.5, Georgia Southern +2, UL Monroe +2.5, Georgia +1, Akron +3, UNLV +2, Duke +2

Down: Northern Illinois -3.5, Western Michigan -2.5, App State -1.5, Air Force -2.5, Rutgers -4, Wake Forest -2.5, Purdue -3, James Madison -2, Syracuse -2, Oklahoma State -4, Arkansas -1.5, Kansas State -1.5, Kentucky -2.5, Ohio State -2, Boise State -2, San Jose State -2.5, Middle Tennessee -2, Texas A&M -3, Troy -1.5, Southern Miss -3, South Carolina -1.5, Auburn -3, West Virginia -4, New Mexico -5, UAB -3, Texas State -2, UTEP -2, Clemson -2.5, USF -3, Tennessee -2.5, Eastern Michigan -2, Virginia Tech -3, Miami (FL) -2.5, Cal -1.5, TCU -1.5, FIU -2, Alabama -2

Injury: Oklahoma State -6 (if Sanders out), Toledo -5 (if Finn out), UAB -4 (if Hopkins out), UCF -4 (if Plumlee out), Tulsa -6 (if Brin out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Syracuse -5 (if Shrader out), Minnesota -4 (if Morgan out)

Some notes on the biggest movers:

New Mexico -5: I’ve had New Mexico rated too high relative to the market, so it was time for a big correction. They’ve been really bad relative to expectation as one of the worst ATS teams in the country. ATS performance relative to expectation seems to be a driving force for power ratings adjustments and that’s a change I’ll make for next season.

Oklahoma State -4: Spencer Sanders was a bit of a surprise absence for the Cowboys last weekend, but this team has put forth a couple duds in a row. To be honest, this may not be enough with the current state of the team, but we’ll see if a good head coach like Mike Gundy can right the ship and if Sanders returns.

West Virginia -4: This is a horrible defense and now the offense is on the fritz as well after an awful performance from JT Daniels against Iowa State.

Rutgers -4: I’m still not low enough on Rutgers relative to the market, but this is a pretty big move at this time of the year.

Coastal Carolina, Akron, Liberty, Georgia Tech, Utah State +3: I’m far more inclined to move teams down significantly than move them up at this stage of the season. These were my biggest increases for a variety of reasons, but I’m looking more for teams to quit than suddenly figure a lot of things out.

Here are my Week 11 spreads:

Date

Away

Home

My Line

11/8

Eastern Michigan

Akron

+10

 

Ohio

Miami Ohio

+2.5

 

Ball State

Toledo (w/ Finn)

-16.5

 

 

 

 

11/9

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

+2.5

 

Buffalo

Central Michigan

+4

 

Kent State

Bowling Green

+3

 

 

 

 

11/10

Tulsa (w/ Brin)

Memphis

-5

 

Georgia Southern

Louisiana

-1.5

 

 

 

 

11/11

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-4.5

 

Colorado

USC

-31

 

Fresno State

UNLV

+12

 

 

 

 

11/12

North Carolina

Wake Forest

-1.5

 

Florida State

Syracuse (w/ Shrader)

+7

 

Liberty

UConn

+13.5

 

Virginia Tech

Duke

-10.5

 

Notre Dame

Navy (N – Baltimore)

+19

 

Oklahoma

West Virginia

+6

 

Pitt

Virginia

+4.5

 

Indiana

Ohio State

-37

 

Missouri

Tennessee

-21

 

Maryland

Penn State

-9

 

Boston College

NC State

-21

 

South Carolina

Florida

-11

 

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-18.5

 

Nebraska

Michigan

-30

 

Miami FL

Georgia Tech

+1

 

Louisville

Clemson

-6

 

Kansas (w/ Daniels)

Texas Tech

-3.5

 

SMU

USF

+16

 

Southern Miss

Coastal Carolina

-9.5

 

UL Monroe

Georgia State

-6.5

 

App State

Marshall

+2

 

James Madison

Old Dominion

+8.5

 

UCF (w/ Plumlee)

Tulane

+0.5

 

Northwestern

Minnesota

-22

 

Purdue

Illinois

-8

 

Texas State

South Alabama

-17.5

 

Rutgers

Michigan State

-10

 

Temple

Houston

-14

 

Kansas State

Baylor

-2

 

UMass

Arkansas State

-24

 

Rice

Western Kentucky

-11

 

Stanford

Utah

-20

 

Arizona State

Washington State

-8.5

 

Cal

Oregon State

-8.5

 

Washington

Oregon

-15.5

 

Arizona

UCLA

-16

 

San Jose State

San Diego State

+3

 

TCU

Texas

-4.5

 

Texas A&M

Auburn

+1.5

 

Army

Troy

-12

 

Alabama

Ole Miss

+11

 

Iowa State

Oklahoma State

-2

 

Wisconsin

Iowa

-0.5

 

LSU

Arkansas

+4

 

Georgia

Mississippi State

+21

 

New Mexico

Air Force

-26

 

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-12.5

 

North Texas

UAB (w/ Hopkins)

-4.5

 

Louisiana Tech

UTSA

-17

 

Wyoming

Colorado State

+8.5

 

FAU

FIU

+10.5

 

Boise State

Nevada

+21.5

 

Utah State

Hawaii

+12

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Maryland +12.5 (+9.5) vs. Penn State: Maryland is a team that needs to throw the ball to be successful, but last week’s weather prohibited Taulia Tagovailoa from doing that. Penn State rolled Indiana as I expected, but I happen to think Maryland’s a decent team when at full strength. I’d love to catch a 13 here, especially since this line jumped a bit after open.

UL Monroe +14 (+6.5) vs. Georgia State: This is easily my biggest discrepancy for Week 11. I think the Warhawks are really playing well all things considered. Georgia State has bounced back from a tough non-conference slate, but 14 points is a lot for a team that doesn’t have a great defense.

Temple +19.5 (+14) vs. Houston: The Owls still aren’t a good team, but they found their offensive stride against USF last week and have played competitively in their two most recent losses to Tulsa and Navy. Maybe I’m not giving Houston enough credit for their body of work, but this feels a few points high.

Cal +13 (+8.5) vs. Oregon State: I looked at these two teams a lot trying to figure out what I’m missing. Oregon State has not been the same team since QB Chance Nolan went out, even though his numbers aren’t really any better than Ben Gulbranson’s. Blowing out Colorado is one thing. Blowing out a competitive Cal team is another. I couldn’t get to double digits with my line here.

TCU +7 (+4.5) vs. Texas: I actually did some mental gymnastics to even get this line to this point, but I think a lot of people are actively looking to bet against TCU. They’ve faced a lot of backup QBs, been on the right side of turnover variance and have covered some numbers that they shouldn’t have. Last week, they had a punt return touchdown and cashed in on two short fields in the fourth quarter when Texas Tech went for it on fourth down. I think 7 is too high.

Be sure to tune into Tuesday’s edition of the College Football Podcast with host Tim Murray and some of my musings and ramblings. Rate, review, subscribe!

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