INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS
This “Thursday Night Football” matchup features AFC South rivals coming off opposite Week 9 performances. The Colts (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) let down the sharps last week, moving from three-point dogs to one-point favorites against the Ravens and then losing straight up 24-10 at home. The Titans (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are coming off a 24-17 win over the Bears, covering as six-point home favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the Titans. Despite this lopsided betting, the line has tumbled from Titans -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros grabbing the points with Indianapolis. The Colts have value as buy-low road divisional dogs off a loss and a contrarian play in a heavily bet prime-time game. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 35-15 ATS (70%) this season. Prime-time dogs are 18-9 ATS (67%). Road teams with line moves in their favor are 43-25 ATS (63%). We’ve also seen some smart money hit this Under, dropping it from 49.5 to 49. Prime-time Unders are 18-9 (67%) this season.
WASHINGTON AT DETROIT LIONS
This NFC game features struggling teams with a combined record of 5-11. Washington (2-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is coming off a disappointing 23-20 defeat to the Giants, losing outright as a three-point home favorite. Similarly, the Lions (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost two straight and just got crushed by the Vikings 34-20, failing to cover as three-point road dogs. This line remains off the board as we await the announcement of who will start at quarterback for both teams. Washington’s Kyle Allen left the last game with an ankle injury and will miss the rest of the season. Alex Smith will likely start in his place. Matthew Stafford left the Lions’ last game with a concussion and will need to clear protocol to play. Washington will likely have value as a short road dog. Washington is -35 in point differential, while the Lions are -43.
HOUSTON TEXANS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS
This AFC showdown features non-division foes looking to get back on track. The Texans (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS) got off to a putrid 0-4 start but have been more competitive over the last month, going 2-2 and most recently beating the Jaguars 27-25 last week but failing to cover as 6.5-point road favorites. The Browns (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) raced to an impressive 4-1 start but have struggled lately, going 1-2 over their last three games. Most recently the Browns fell to the Raiders 16-6, losing outright as one-point home favorites. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Pros immediately hit the Browns, pushing the line up to -3. The Browns -3 is juiced up to -120, signaling a possible further move up to -3.5. You would expect some buyback on the Texans if the hook shows up (+ 3.5). Houston has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70% this season). Lead ref Ron Torbert has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). Cleveland has a rest advantage coming off a bye. We’ve seen a little smart money hit the Under, dropping the total from 54 to 53.5. The weather could be a factor as the forecast calls for 15- to 20-mph winds.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
These nonconference foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Jaguars (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost seven straight after shocking the Colts on opening day. However, Jacksonville showed some life with rookie Jake Luton under center, falling to Houston 27-25 but covering as a 6.5-point home dog. The Packers (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) sit comfortably atop the NFC North and just crushed the 49ers 34-17 on Thursday night, easily covering as six-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a hefty 14-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout and is thinking about laying the points. However, we’ve seen this line fall slightly from Green Bay -14 to -13.5. This signals some respected money hitting the Jaguars at the key number of + 14, causing a half-point adjustment in their favor. Green Bay has a rest advantage, having last played Thursday, compared with the Jaguars playing Sunday. Pro money has hammered this Under, dropping the total from 53 to 52. The forecast calls for 15- to 20-mph winds at Lambeau.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT NEW YORK GIANTS
This NFC East grudge match has big playoff implications as both teams are fighting for the top spot in a tight divisional race. The Eagles (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) have gotten hot lately, rebounding from an awful start to win two straight. Philadelphia most recently crushed Dallas 23-9, covering as a 10-point home favorite. The Giants (2-7 SU, 6-3 ATS) have a poor record but have been incredibly kind to bettors, covering two-thirds of their games. New York is coming off a 23-20 win over Washington, winning outright as a three-point road dog. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a three- or 3.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Philly. However, we’ve seen some sharp buyback and liability on the Giants at the key number of + 3.5. Many books have dropped back to 3 or are heavily juicing up the Giants + 3.5. New York has value as a divisional dog and a contrarian play in a heavily lopsided game. Divisional dogs are 29-16 ATS (64%) this season. Philadelphia has a rest advantage coming off a bye. We’ve seen heavy steam hit this Over, pushing the total up from 42 to 44. These teams met about a month ago. The Eagles won 22-21, but the Giants covered as five-point road dogs.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS
This NFC South matchup features teams looking to avenge tough Week 9 losses. The Bucs (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) are coming off an embarrassing 38-3 blowout to the Saints on “Sunday Night Football,” losing straight up as three-point home favorites. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak. The Panthers (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) battled hard in Kansas City, losing 33-31 but covering as 10-point road dogs. It marked the fourth straight loss for Carolina. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a six-point road favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Panthers, driving this line down from Carolina + 6 to + 4.5. Divisional dogs like Carolina are 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS (81%) as a dog in his career, including 5-2 ATS this season. We’ve also seen some smart money hit this Over, pushing it up from 48.5 to 50.5.
DENVER BRONCOS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
This AFC West game looks lopsided on paper. The Broncos (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) have lost two of their last three, including a 34-27 loss to the Falcons last week in which they failed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. The Raiders (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) have played well as of late, winning two straight and three of four. Las Vegas is coming off a 31-26 victory over the Chargers, covering as a one-point road favorite. This line opened with Vegas listed as a four-point home favorite. Bets are relatively split, but we’ve sharp action hit the Raiders, pushing the line up from Vegas -4 to -5. The Broncos have value as inflated road divisional dogs. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 35-15 ATS (70%) this season. Divisional dogs are 29-16 ATS (64%). We’ve also seen some pro money hit this Over, pushing this total up from 50.5 to 52. Both teams have been highly profitable to the Over, with the Broncos 5-3 and the Raiders 7-1.
BUFFALO BILLS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
This nonconference showdown features two of the league’s up-and-coming teams. The Bills (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak and just came off a huge upset of the Seahawks, winning 44-34 as three-point home dogs. The Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) just saw their three-game winning streak snapped as they fell to the Dolphins 34-31, losing straight up as six-point home favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the streaking Bills. However, we’ve seen some books rise to -2 despite this heavy Bills betting. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, with pros buying low on Arizona and selling high on the trendy dog Bills in a possible letdown spot after a big win. Pros are banking on a shootout and absolutely love this Over. The total has been steamed up from 54 to 56. The Bills are 7-2 to the Over, while the Cardinals are 5-2-1 to the Under.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
This nonconference matchup features teams trending in completely opposite directions. The Chargers (2-6 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) have lost two straight, most recently falling to the Raiders 31-26 and failing to cover as one-point dogs. It marked another agonizing ending for a team that has blown a plethora of fourth-quarter leads. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) are flying high and have won four straight. They are 2-0 with Tua Tagovailoa at QB and just upset the Cardinals 34-31, winning outright as six-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Pros and Joes seem to agree on Miami, as the juice on the Dolphins -2.5 is rising to -120, signaling liability and a possible move up to -3. The Chargers have value as a contrarian bet and short road dogs + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70% this season). One advantage for Miami is the lead official, Jerome Boger. He is the best home-team referee in the NFL (home teams 56% ATS). We’ve also seen some respected money hit the Under, dropping the total from 49 to 47.5. The forecast calls for 10- to 15-mph winds in Miami.
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
At first glance, this AFC North game looks incredibly lopsided. The Bengals (2-5-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) have the eighth-worst record in the NFL but have actually been one of the best teams to bet on in terms of covering the number. Cincinnati is coming off an impressive upset win over the Titans 31-20, winning outright as a seven-point home dog. The Steelers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) remain the only undefeated team in the league. Pittsburgh just beat Dallas 24-19, though failing to cover as a big 14-point road favorite. This line opened with the Steelers listed as 10-point favorites. Smart money jumped on the Bengals early, dropping this line to -7.5. Then the game went off the board when it was announced several Steelers, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, had been placed on the COVID-19 list. Be sure to monitor how this line moves and who is available. The Bengals will have value as road division dogs and have extra rest and time to game-plan as they are coming off a bye.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Both NFC West rivals have struggled in recent weeks. Both are 1-2 in their last three games and looking to rebound from tough road losses. The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) lost to the Bills in a shootout, falling 44-34 and losing outright as three-point road favorites. The Rams (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just got humbled in South Beach, falling to the Dolphins 28-17 and losing straight up as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a two-point home favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Seahawks as short road dogs, as we’ve seen this line tumble from Seattle + 2 to + 1.5. The Seahawks have value as divisional dogs (29-16 ATS, 64% this season) and short road dogs + 6 or less (35-15 ATS, 70%). Russell Wilson is 27-13 ATS (68%) as a dog in his career. The Rams will have a rest and game-plan advantage as they are coming off a bye. The total is 55.5. The Seahawks have been profitable to the Over (6-2), while the Rams have been a big Under team (6-2).
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
This late-afternoon NFC game looks like a mismatch on paper. The 49ers (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) have fallen on hard times thanks to a barrage of injuries. San Francisco has lost two straight, most recently losing to the Packers 34-17 and failing to cover as a six-point home dog. The Saints (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) are riding high and have won five straight, including an impressive 38-3 thrashing of the Bucs, easily winning outright as three-point road dogs. This line opened with the Saints listed as nine-point home favorites. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with New Orleans. This lopsided betting pushed the line up to -9.5. That’s when we saw some 49ers money show up, which dropped the line back to 9. The 49ers have value as contrarian road dogs and a buy-low team off a loss against a team off a big win. San Francisco also has a distinct rest advantage, having last played Thursday while the Saints played Sunday night. The total has dipped slightly from 51 to 50, signaling some respected Under money.
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This “Sunday Night Football” matchup features AFC teams coming off big bounce-back wins in Week 9. The Ravens (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) beat the sharps last week, taking down the Colts 24-10 despite heavily respected money hitting Indianapolis (+ 3 to -1). The Patriots (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a four-game losing streak with a come-from-behind 30-27 victory over the Jets, though failing to cover as nine-point road favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as 6.5-point road favorites. The public sees an easy win and cover by Baltimore and is rushing to the window to lay the points. This heavily lopsided action pushed the line up from Ravens -6.5 to -7.5. But then we saw some sharp buyback on the Pats getting the hook (+ 7.5), which has dropped this line back to 7. New England has value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Prime-time dogs are 19-9 ATS (68%) this season. We’ve also seen a flood of respected money hit this Over, driving the total up from 41 to 43. Overs are cashing at a 54% clip this season.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT CHICAGO BEARS
This “Monday Night Football” showdown features division rivals trending in opposite directions. After getting off to a disappointing 1-5 start, the Vikings (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) have rebounded and won two straight, most recently crushing the Lions 34-20 and easily covering as three-point home favorites. The Bears (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) started a red-hot 5-1 but have been in a tailspin, losing three straight. Chicago fell to Tennessee 24-17 last week, failing to cover as a six-point road dog. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the streaking Vikings and happy to fade the struggling Bears on a short spread. The Vikings -2.5 is heavily juiced up, signaling a possible move to -3. Look for buyback on Chicago at the key number of + 3. The Bears have buy-low value as divisional dogs and a contrarian play in a heavily bet prime-time game. Divisional dogs are 29-16 ATS (64%) this season. Prime-time dogs are 19-9 ATS (68%). The total is 45. The Vikings have been profitable to the Over (6-2), but the Bears have been a big Under team (6-3).