Week 10 NFL Betting Trends

By Reid Fowler  (DK Nation) 

November 11, 2021 09:10 PM
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The Week 10 slate features 14 games, as the Bears, Bengals, Texans and Giants enjoy the bye week. Action begins with a big road favorite on Thursday and ends with a small road favorite on Monday.

From Ravens vs. Dolphins to Rams vs. 49ers, here are some betting trends for this week’s card.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 46.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Ravens are laying a hefty road number here against the Dolphins with a questionable tag for Tua Tagovailoa and a Baltimore offense that should feast on a bad Miami defense. The Ravens are 6-2 going into this week, but just 3-5 ATS, as they’ve played some really close game. The Over is 5-3 for Baltimore on the year.

Miami is just 2-7 SU on the season with a 3-6 ATS mark. The Under is 5-4 in Miami’s nine games, due in large part to an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.

Trends:

  • Ravens are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.
  • Ravens are 9-0 ATS in their previous nine games vs. the Dolphins.
  • Ravens are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their previous six Thursday games.
  • Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Under is 5-1 in Ravens’ previous six road games.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in Ravens’ last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.

 

  • Dolphins are 1-7 SU in their previous eight games.
  • Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when playing at home vs. the Ravens.
  • Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 home games.
  • Dolphins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
  • Under is 9-2-1 in Dolphins' previous 12 Thursday games.

More Ravens and Dolphins Trends

 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47.5)

The Colts are a heavy favorite to climb back to .500 with Sunday’s game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville won for just the second time this season with last week’s 9-6 victory over the Bills. It was also just the third ATS win in eight tries for the Jags. Jacksonville enters this game 6-2 to the Under.

The Colts are 4-5 on the season, but 6-3 ATS, as they’ve been very good to bettors this season. They’re also on some extra rest after playing Thursday against the Jets. Indy is 6-3 to the Over on the season and faces a second straight double-digit favorite role.

Trends:

  • Jaguars are 1-7 SU in their last eight games when playing on the road vs. the Colts.
  • Jaguars are 4-8 ATS in their previous 12 games.
  • Jaguars are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Indianapolis.
  • Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their previous six road games against a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 6-1 in Jaguars' last seven games overall.

 

  • Colts are 4-2 SU in their previous six games.
  • Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • Colts are 7-1 SU in their previous eight games when playing at home vs. Jacksonville.
  • Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • Colts are 4-0 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 8-2 in the previous 10 meetings in Indianapolis.

More Jaguars and Colts Trends

 

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2, 45.5)

The Browns and Patriots enter this one at Gillette Stadium with identical 5-4 records, so this game could have some huge implications for the AFC playoff picture with that extra Wild Card spot. The Browns are 4-4-1 ATS and the Patriots are 5-4 ATS, so both teams have played close to expectation so far.

They’re also quite similar with totals, as the Browns are 5-4 to the Over and the Patriots are 5-4 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road.
  • Browns are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight games vs. the Patriots.
  • Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 4-0 in Browns' previous four against a team with a winning record.

 

  • Patriots are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • Patriots are 4-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • New England is 1-4 SU in their last five games at home.
  • New England is 5-0 SU in their previous five games when playing at home vs. the Browns.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Patriots' last four home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Patriots' previous five games overall.

More Browns and Patriots Trends

 

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 54.5)

The excitement over Cooper Rush’s win against the Vikings was tempered with last week’s ugly loss at the hands of the Denver Broncos. The Cowboys still come into this game 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS, as we have no more unbeaten ATS teams in the NFL this season. Dallas is 5-3 to the Over through eight games.

Atlanta is 4-4 SU and ATS, but the Falcons have been playing better of late and Matt Ryan seems to be settling in nicely to the Art Smith system. The Falcons are also 5-3 to the Over, but are trending up offensively.

Trends:

  • Falcons are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games.
  • Falcons are 4-2 ATS in their previous six games.
  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Dallas.
  • Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their previous 16 road games.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Falcons' last five against a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 4-1 in the Falcons' previous five games overall.

 

  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games overall.
  • Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games following an ATS loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cowboys' last five games as a favorite.

More Falcons and Cowboys Trends

 

Buffalo Bills (-12.5, 47.5) at New York Jets

After losing as a massive double-digit favorite last week, the Bills will try again this week against the Jets. This line has crept down a little bit for Buffalo, who comes into the game 5-3 SU and ATS, which is not quite what we expected at this point in the season. The Under is 5-3, also not quite what we expected.

The Jets are 2-6 SU and ATS on the year, but 1-1 SU and ATS under Mike White, who gets the start in place of the still-healing Zach Wilson. The Jets are 5-3 to the Over and have scored a bunch of points while allowing a bunch of points the last two games.

Trends:

  • Bills are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games.
  • Bills are 10-5 SU in their previous 15 games vs. the Jets.
  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against the AFC East.
  • Bills are 5-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bills' previous four against a team with a losing record.

 

  • NY Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games when playing at home vs. Buffalo.
  • Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.
  • Jets are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a home underdog.
  • Over is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games overall.

More Bills and Jets Trends

 

New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3, 45)

This line has gotten the attention of a lot of people, as the Titans enter the game 7-2 SU and ATS with some huge wins over Kansas City, Buffalo and the Rams. The Saints, by comparison, seem like an easier opponent to handle, but the line is right on the key number of a field goal.

New Orleans is having a fine season without future Hall of Famer Drew Brees at the helm. The Saints are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS through eight games, with four Overs and four Unders. The Titans are 5-4 to the Over.

Trends:

  • Saints are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Saints are 2-5 SU in their previous seven games vs. the Titans.
  • Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
  • Saints are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games following a SU loss.
  • Over is 5-1 in Saints' last games following a SU loss.
  • Over is 4-1 in Saints' previous five games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games as a road underdog.

 

  • Titans are 5-0 SU in their previous five games.
  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Titans' last five home games.
  • Over is 7-2 in Titans' previous nine against a team with a winning record.

More Saints and Titans Trends

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 51.5) at Washington Football Team

The Buccaneers and Washington are both off the bye this week, a situation that has not been great for teams to this point. Teams off of the bye are 3-9 ATS. This will be the second game with both teams off the bye. The Cowboys beat the Vikings 20-17 as an underdog with Dak Prescott sidelined.

Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU, but just 3-5 ATS on the season. Both marks are still better than Washington’s, as the Football Team is 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Tampa Bay is 5-3 to the Over and Washington has split the eight games down the middle.

Trends:

  • Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Buccaneers are 4-1 SU in their previous five games this season.
  • Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
  • Buccaneers are 10-2 SU in their previous 12 games on the road.
  • Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
  • Over is 7-3 in Buccaneers' previous 10 games as a road favorite.

 

  • Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
  • Washington is 1-6 SU in their previous seven games at home.
  • Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
  • Washington is 0-5 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog.

More Buccaneers and Washington Trends

 

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 43)

The Lions are winless heading to Heinz Field to take on the Steelers. Detroit is 0-8, but has covered four games to this point. The Steelers are 5-3 SU, but 3-5 ATS. Both teams are 5-3 to the Under.

Pittsburgh is on short rest here after narrowly beating a different NFC North team on Monday Night Football. The Bears gave the Steelers all they could handle. Will the desperate Lions be able to do the same?

Trends:

  • Lions are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Lions are 0-5 SU in their previous five games vs. the Steelers.
  • Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
  • Under is 5-1 in the Lions' previous six games overall.

 

  • Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • Steelers are 4-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home.
  • Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games following a SU win.
  • Steelers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.
  • Over is 4-0 in Steelers' last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

More Lions and Steelers Trends

 

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 53)

The Vikings have been in enhanced COVID protocols this week as they prepare to head west to take on the Chargers. Minnesota is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS and you have to wonder about the remainder of the season with a loss here. Another defeat gives the Vikings a very minuscule shot at the playoffs.

The Chargers, meanwhile, would improve their playoff hopes greatly with a win. They are 5-3 SU and ATS on the season. Minnesota is 4-4 on totals, while the Chargers come in at 5-3 to the Under.

Trends:

  • Vikings are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games.
  • Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games.
  • Vikings are 4-2 SU in their last six games vs. the Chargers.
  • Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their previous five road games against a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 6-0 in Vikings' last six road games.

 

  • Chargers are 9-3 SU in their previous 12 games.
  • Chargers are 4-2 ATS in their last six games this season.
  • Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games as a favorite.
  • Under is 5-2 in Chargers' last seven home games.

More Vikings and Chargers Trends

 

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10, 44)

The Panthers will not have Sam Darnold in this game. They could have Cam Newton ready to go or it could be PJ Walker. Whatever the case, the Panthers are getting double-digits in the desert this week. Carolina is 4-5 SU and ATS, but has dropped five of the last six games.

Carolina is 7-2 to the Under, so we’ll see if the Panthers defense can hold the Cardinals offense in check. Arizona is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. The Cardinals are 5-4 to the Under, but that has more to do with how well their defense has played than the success of opponents in holding the offense down.

Trends:

  • Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games vs. Arizona.
  • Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.
  • Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 road games.
  • Under is 10-2 in the Panthers' last 12 games overall.

 

  • Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.
  • Cardinals are 2-5 SU in their last seven games when playing at home vs. the Panthers.
  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games following a SU win.
  • Under is 4-0 in the Cardinals' last four games as a favorite.

More Panthers and Cardinals Trends

 

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3, 49.5)

The Seahawks will get Russell Wilson back. It remains to be seen if Aaron Rodgers gets the green light after testing positive for COVID-19. Slowly, but surely, we’ve seen the line drop a little bit since Rodgers won’t be able to go through practice until Saturday.

Seattle is just 3-5 SU, but 5-3 ATS. With Wilson back, this amounts to a must-win type of game for the postseason hopes. The Packers are 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS and have some cushion in the poor NFC North Division if need be. Both teams have been good under bets, with Seattle 6-2 and Green Bay 7-2.

Trends:

  • Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 11-3 ATS in their previous 14 games as a road underdog.
  • Seahawks are 2-5 SU in their last seven games.
  • Seahawks are 0-5-1 ATS in their previous six games vs. the Packers.
  • Under is 4-0 in Seahawks' last 4 road games.
  • Under is 14-3 in Seahawks’ previous 17 games overall.

 

  • Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
  • Packers are 5-0 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-0 in Packers’ last 4 games as a favorite.

More Seahawks and Packers Trends

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-3, 45)

Last week’s huge win for Denver could be a building block this week against another NFC East foe. The Eagles are in town, bringing a 3-6 SU record and a 4-5 ATS mark into the Mile High City. Philadelphia is 5-4 to the Over and is teetering on the brink of being pushed completely out of playoff contention.

The Broncos are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS through nine games. With the parity in the AFC West, they are not in a bad spot at all. Denver is 7-2 to the Under going into this one with a pretty low total by present-day NFL standards.

Trends:

  • Eagles are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games.
  • Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their previous five games vs. the Broncos.
  • Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • Eagles are 2-4 SU in their previous six games when playing on the road vs. the Broncos.
  • Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 5-2 in the Eagles' previous seven games overall.

 

  • Broncos are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Broncos are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home.

More Eagles and Broncos Trends

 

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 51.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday Night Football has huge implications in the AFC West and the playoff picture with the Chiefs taking on the Raiders. Kansas City is a short road favorite in this one, even though the Chiefs continue to have issues with covering spreads. KC is just 2-7 ATS this season to go along with a 5-4 SU record.

The Raiders are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS, so they’ve largely played to expectation this season. Last week’s loss to the Giants was a tough setback, but Las Vegas played well enough to win. The Chiefs are 5-4 to the Under and the Raiders have split their eight games right down the middle.

Trends:

  • Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Chiefs are 6-1 SU in their previous seven games vs. Las Vegas.
  • Chiefs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win.
  • Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their previous four against the AFC West.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs’ last four games overall.
  • Under is 4-0 in Chiefs' previous four games as a favorite.

 

  • Raiders are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Raiders are 6-3 SU in their previous nine games.
  • Raiders are 1-5 SU in their last six games when playing at home vs. Kansas City.
  • Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog.
  • Over is 10-0-1 in the Raiders' last 11 games as a home underdog.
  • Home team is 7-2 ATS in their previous nine meetings.

More Chiefs and Raiders Trends 

 

Los Angeles Rams (-4, 49.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams play a real opponent with a pulse for the second week in a row, as they’ll visit the 49ers on Monday Night Football. The Rams faced the Titans last week and got hit with a reality check after playing the Giants, Lions and Texans the three weeks prior to that.

The Rams are now 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS. They are 5-3-1 to the Over on the season and have their bye week after this game. The 49ers are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS, so they have not been kind to backers. The Over is 5-3 in San Francisco games.

Trends:

  • Rams are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
  • Rams are 4-1 SU in their previous five games.
  • Rams are 5-1 SU in their last six games on the road.
  • Rams are 1-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.
  • Rams are 1-4 SU in their previous five games vs. San Francisco.
  • Over is 4-1-1 in the Rams' last six road games.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Rams' previous five games overall.
  • Under is 6-2 in Rams' last eight games following a SU loss.

 

  • 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.
  • 49ers are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • 49ers are 0-8 SU in their previous eight games at home.
  • Over is 4-0 in the 49ers' last four home games against a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 4-1 in 49ers' previous five Monday games.

More Rams and 49ers Trends

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