WEEK 10 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRENDS

By Bruce Marshall  () 

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at APPALACHIAN STATE App State is 5-2 ATS this year and 18-5-1 vs. spread since late 2017. GSU on a bit of an uptick too (4-0-1 vs. line last five). App has won SU last five meetings, covering four. Mounties 10-1 vs. spread last 11 away from Boone. Tech edge — App, based on team and series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at BAYLOR

WVU beginning to struggle, with no wins or covers last three. Bears are 7-0 SU but only 4-3 vs. line, and Matt Rhule 1-3 laying double digits in 2019. Rhule 2-7 as Waco chalk since 2017 (1-2 TY). Tech edge — Slight to WVU, based on extended trends.

NAVY at CONNECTICUT

Midshipmen 5-2 vs. line TY, now on 9-1 spread run since late 2018. Huskies a bit better 4-4 vs. line TY but still 6-14 vs. points since LY, 7-17 last 24 vs. spread at Pratt & Whitney. Tech edge — Navy, based on team trends.

NC STATE at WAKE FOREST

Wolfpack struggling, just 1-5 vs. line last six TY. No covers last five away from Raleigh. Home team 10-2 vs. spread last 12 meetings. Tech edge — Wake, based on team and series trends.

LIBERTY at UMASS

Flames have won five of last six SU and have covered four of last six TY. UMass 1-7 vs. spread in 2019 for Walt Bell. Tech edge — Liberty, based on recent trends.

OLD DOMINION at FIU

Road team is 7-1 vs. line in ODU games TY (Monarchs 3-1 vs. line away). Butch Davis just 2-8 last 10 as home chalk. Road team 2-0-1 vs. spread last three meetings. Tech edge — Slight to ODU, based on team trends.

TROY at COASTAL CAROLINA

Trojans only 2-5 vs. line TY but have won and covered big last two vs. Coastal. Chants no covers last six at home vs. FBS opposition. Tech edge — Troy, based on team and series trends.

PITTSBURGH at GEORGIA TECH

Pitt has covered first three on road this season,

and Panthers have covered last six as visitors. GT might be rallying with a push and cover last two after eight straight spread Ls, but still just 2-7 vs. number last nine at home. Tech edge — Pitt, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at PURDUE

Cornhuskers have no covers last five or seven of eight TY. Meanwhile, Jeff Brohm has covered three of last four, and Boilermakers have covered four of last five meetings. Tech edge — Purdue, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at CENTRAL FLORIDA

Knights have cooled a bit with 1-4 spread mark last five after 13 -4 spread run. UCF still 7-4 vs. spread last 11 at Orlando, however. Cougs just 4-9 vs. line last 13 away from home. Tech edge — UCF, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MARYLAND

Jim Harbaugh has destroyed Maryland, winning and covering big the last four meetings. But Wolves 1-7 vs. line last eight laying points away from Ann Arbor. Terps have actually covered four of last five as hosts (3-1 TY) but 3-6 as dogs since LY (1-1 for Mike Locksley TY) and just 2-4 last six vs. line in 2019. Tech edge —Slight to Michigan, based on series trends.

NORTHWESTERN at INDIANA

Pat Fitzgerald dog marks taking a bit of a hit TY, but on road the Wildcats have been better (17-2 last 19 as dogs away from Evanston). Hoosiers

8-1 as Bloomington chalk since ’17 for Tom “Mr. Intensity” Allen. Tech edge — Slight to NU, based on team trends.

AKRON at BOWLING GREEN

Zips an imperfect 0-8 vs. line this season, Falcons not much better at 2-6. Road dog has won and covered last three meetings. Tech edge — Slight to BGSU, based on Akron woes.

RUTGERS at ILLINOIS

Rutgers has failed to cover six of last seven this

season. Road team, however, has covered last

three meetings in series. Lovie Smith not so bad 5-6 as chalk with Illini (1-2 TY) and has covered four of five vs. line at Champaign-Urbana in 2019. Tech edge — Illinois, based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at EAST CAROLINA

Luke Fickell 5-2 vs. line TY, including 2-0 as road chalk. ECU, however, has covered three of last four this season as Pirates make some progress (at least before last week) under Mike Houston. Home team has won and covered last three meetings. Tech edge — Slight to Cincy, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at SYRACUSE

BC has 11-3-1 dog mark last 15 in role for Steve Addazio, and Eagles have covered four of last five TY. Road team has covered last three meetings. Tech edge — BC, based on recent and series trends.

BUFFALO at EASTERN MICHIGAN

Lance Leipold just 1-5 vs. spread last six away from home but has covered three of last four TY. EMU no covers first two at home this season and has not been as tough vs. line at home (5-6-1 since 2017 vs. points) as on road last few years. Tech edge — Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA

For all the Mack Brown hullabaloo at Chapel Hill, Heels just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 vs. spread last six TY. Cavs have won and covered last two in series, though only 1-5 last six vs. spread TY. Tech edge — Slight to UVa, based on series trends.

BYU at UTAH STATE

Utags have won and covered big in series last two years. But Cougars 9-3 last 12 as dogs, 10-2 last 12 as road dogs. Utags, however, 8-1-1

vs. line last 10 at Logan. Tech edge — Slight to Utags, based on team and recent series trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at NOTRE DAME

Dog team has actually covered in last eight Virginia Tech games (7-0 TY). Hokies 2-0 as dogs this term but only 2-5 vs. spread overall. Brian Kelly 4-1 vs. line last five at South Bend. Tech edge — Slight to ND, based on team trends.

OREGON at USC

Trojans 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line at home this season, but Ducks 4-1 as visiting chalk for Mario Cristobal. Clay Helton 2-1 as dog TY after 2-10 mark previous 12 in role. Tech edge — Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

COLORADO at UCLA

Buffs 3-9 vs. line last 12 as true visitor. But CU has covered five of last six vs. Bruins. UCLA no covers five of last seven at home but has won and covered two in row for first time under Chip Kelly.

Tech edge — CU, based on series trends.

KANSAS STATE at KANSAS

Bill Snyder owned this series and won all 10 vs. KU after his return in 2009, though Jayhawks have covered last three meetings. K-State no covers last 10 as Big 12 chalk. Tech edge — KU, based on team and recent series trends.

TEXAS STATE at UL-LAFAYETTE

Jake Spavital just one cover in 2019 (1-5-1) for

Bobcats, who have lost and failed to cover last

six vs. ULL. Ragin’ Cajuns 13-2-2 vs. spread last

regular-season games. Tech edge — ULL, based on team and series trends.

VANDERBILT at SOUTH CAROLINA

Will Muschamp has owned Derek Mason, won and covered last three meetings, and SC has won and covered last four vs. Vandy. Gamecocks 10-0 SU run in series. Commodores stopped seven-game spread skid with recent win vs. Mizzou. Tech edge — SC, based on series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Jim McElwain is hot as CMU on 6-1 spread run and 7-2 vs. line TY. Chips have also covered last five in series. Tech edge — CMU, based on recent and series trends.

MARSHALL at RICE

Doc Holliday and Herd 3-7 last 10 as road chalk, also just 6-14 last 20 on board. Tech edge — Rice, based on MU negatives.

UNLV at COLORADO STATE

Rebels 1-6 vs. line last seven on Mountain West road, no covers last three vs. CSU. Mike Bobo just 2-7 as home chalk in new stadium since 2017 but on current 4-1 spread run. Tech edge — CSU, based on team and series trends.

SMU at MEMPHIS

Tigers have covered nine in a row vs. AAC foes at Liberty Bowl. Memphis has also won and covered last five vs. SMU. Ponies, however, are 6-2 vs. line TY. Tech edge — Memphis, based on team and series trends.

TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at TEXAS A&M Jimbo Fisher has covered five straight and Aggies six straight as non-SEC host. A&M 8-2 as DD chalk since LY (both L’s vs. Arkansas). Roadrunners 3-10 last 13 as DD dogs since LY (0-4 TY). Tech edge — A&M, based on team trends.

ARMY at AIR FORCE

Army has cooled vs. line, dropping last five and six of eight this season. Falcons have lost last two SU in series but 4-1-1 last six vs. West Point. Force covered last three vs. non-MW at home and on current three-game win and cover streak. Tech edge — Air Force, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA

Beavers are surging, covering five of last six TY and have covered all three on road. Kevin Sumlin 2-6 vs. line TY and no covers last three as chalk. Tech edge — OSU, based on recent trends.

UAB at TENNESSEE

Vols 0-2 as chalk TY, 2-9 vs. line in role since 2017. Also no covers last five and 1-7 last eight vs. spread against non-SEC FBS foes. UAB covering again (three in a row and five of six), and Bill Clark 13-6 as dog with Blazers. Tech edge — UAB, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI at AUBURN

Gus Malzahn has covered eight of last nine since late 2018. But Ole Miss has covered three of last four TY. Road team has covered last five meetings. Tech edge — Slight to Ole Miss, based on series trends.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA

Kirby Smart only 3-5 ATS last eight since late LY, though has covered four of last six away from Athens. Dan Mullen on 7-3 upswing vs. line. Bulldogs have won and covered last two meetings, but Gators took preceding three. Tech edge — Slight to Florida, based on team trends.

TCU at OKLAHOMA STATE

Frogs 1-5 vs. spread last six as Big 12 visitors. TCU also on 5-11 skid vs. line in regular-season play. Gary Patterson 3-3 as dog since LY.

Mike Gundy did have six covers in a row until dropping two of last three. Frogs beat OSU last two years, but Cowboys 4-3 vs. line last seven in series. Tech edge — Slight to OSU, based on team trends.

UTEP at NORTH TEXAS

How about this: UTEP 5-2 vs. line last 7 away. Miners covered four of last five in series. UNT on 2-12 spread skid. Tech edge — UTEP, based on team and series trends.

TULSA at TULANE

Road team 7-1 vs. spread in Tulsa games TY, though Tulane 4-0 vs. line at home TY. Green Wave won and covered last two vs. Golden Hurricane. Tech edge — Tulane, based on recent series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS

Hogs yet to win an SEC game outright for Chad Morris (0-12 SU), though Joe Moorhead no covers last four or five of last six TY, plus MSU

1-8 last nine vs. line away from Starkville. Tech edge — Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at CHARLOTTE 49ers have cooled with no covers four of last five TY. Rick Stockstill 4-1 vs. spread last five on C-USA road and has covered three of last four in series. Tech edge — MTSU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at WESTERN KENTUCKY

Hilltoppers have covered last five and six of last seven this season. However, Lane Kiffin has covered his last six on road. Owls 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. Tech edge — Slight to FAU, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at UL-MONROE

Red Wolves just 3-6 last nine vs. spread. But they have covered five of last seven as visitors. Series has been all Ark State, winning and covering last nine. Matt Viator on 6-15 spread skid since late 2017. Tech edge — Ark State, based on series and team trends.

MIAMI at FLORIDA STATE

Road team has covered last five meetings. Willie Taggart 8-12 vs. spread with Seminoles. Tech edge — Miami, based on series and team trends.

NEW MEXICO at NEVADA

Jay Norvell 8-2 vs. spread last 10 vs. Mountain West foes at Reno. Bob Davie on 10-23 spread skid since late 2016 (though not as bad at 6-7 last 13 as road dog). Tech edge — Nevada, based on team trends.

UTAH at WASHINGTON

Huskies won and covered both LY, though Utes 5-2 vs. spread last seven as visitors. Utah 21-9-1 vs. line away since 2014. Washington 3-1 as home chalk TY after 1-5 mark in role LY. Tech edge — Utah, especially if dog, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at SAN JOSE STATE Spartans are scrappy, 8-3 last 11 as DD dogs, though Boise 7-2 vs. spread last nine on MW road. Broncos 37-17 as visiting chalk since 2009. Tech edge — Slight to Boise, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at HAWAII

Jeff Tedford only 2-4-1 vs. line TY after 20-6-2 last two seasons. But Fresno still 13-4-2 vs. line away since 2017. Bulldogs 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series. Hawaii just 2-9-1 vs. spread last 12 as MW host. Tech edge — Fresno, based on team and series trends.

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