Week 10 college football power ratings and game spreads

By Adam Burke  (VSiN.com) 

October 31, 2022 07:50 PM
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MACTION IS BACK! The return of the MAC to Tuesday and Wednesday nights is something that we can all rally around and we have the potential for a real barnburner on Tuesday night between Buffalo and Ohio. We’ve also got some excellent games on Saturday, specifically in the SEC with Alabama vs. LSU and Georgia vs. Tennessee.

Now that we’re into November, there are a lot of things that cannot be quantified that will be part of the equation. There are already eight teams eliminated from having enough wins to be considered for a bowl game. We’ve seen coaches fired already, but more of them are going to be let go in the coming weeks. We’re also going to see some teams play more freshmen and sophomores in hopes of seeing what they’ve got for next season. Coaches may also need to throw players a bone to keep them from transferring.

It can be really hard to follow all of those developments, but one that shouldn’t be hard to follow is when a quarterback at a major program like Utah is not going to start. Virtually nobody knew that Cam Rising was going to be sidelined. Utah still won the game, but failed to cover. The NCAA doesn’t require the same transparency as other sports with regards to injury. Some coaches are an open book. Others are a diary with a complicated lock.

With regards to my process for updating power ratings, it is particularly challenging because the most important part of what I do is to compare my line with the closing line. The Utes line didn’t really have a lot of time to move because the shocking announcement about Rising didn’t really show up until right before kickoff. In another instance, we had a pretty good idea that Dequan Finn wasn’t going to play for Toledo, which drove that line down. But, I can’t very well adjust Toledo assuming Finn doesn’t play next week. That’s where the box score study and some early-week asterisks come into play.

The Rising incident won’t be the last. We’ll see a lot of teams tinkering with the QB position, especially as nagging injuries mount and the focus shifts to next season. You just have to stay on your toes as much as you can.

Here are my Week 10 Power Ratings:

Rank

Team

Conference

PR

HFA

1

Georgia

SEC

98.5

3.5

2

Ohio State

Big Ten

97.5

3.5

3

Alabama

SEC

95.5

3.5

4

Tennessee

SEC

92

2.5

5

Michigan

Big Ten

89

3

6

Oregon

Pac-12

87.5

3

7

TCU

Big 12

86.5

2

8

Texas

Big 12

85

2

9

USC

Pac-12

84

2

10

LSU

SEC

83

2.5

11

Clemson

ACC

82.5

3.5

12

Utah

Pac-12

82.5

3.5

13

Kansas State

Big 12

82

2

14

UCLA

Pac-12

81.5

2

15

Baylor

Big 12

80.5

2

16

Florida State

ACC

80.5

2

17

Ole Miss

SEC

80.5

2

18

Penn State

Big Ten

79

2.5

19

Arkansas

SEC

78.5

2

20

Kentucky

SEC

77

2

21

Minnesota

Big Ten

77

2

22

Oklahoma

Big 12

77

3.5

23

Wake Forest

ACC

77

2.5

24

Illinois

Big Ten

76.5

1.5

25

Oklahoma State

Big 12

76.5

3

26

Notre Dame

Independent

76

3.5

27

Louisville

ACC

75.5

2

28

North Carolina

ACC

75.5

2

29

UCF

AAC

75.5

3.5

30

Texas Tech

Big 12

75

2

31

Washington

Pac-12

75

2

32

Texas A&M

SEC

74.5

3.5

33

Boise State

Mountain West

74

2.5

34

Cincinnati

AAC

74

3.5

35

Mississippi State

SEC

74

2.5

36

Syracuse

ACC

73.5

2

37

Washington State

Pac-12

73.5

3

38

Florida

SEC

73

3

39

Oregon State

Pac-12

73

2

40

Purdue

Big Ten

73

2

41

Fresno State

Mountain West

72.5

2.5

42

Maryland

Big Ten

72.5

2

43

West Virginia

Big 12

72.5

2.5

44

Wisconsin

Big Ten

72.5

2

45

East Carolina

AAC

72

1.5

46

South Alabama

Sun Belt

72

2

47

James Madison

Sun Belt

71.5

2

48

Appalachian State

Sun Belt

71

3.5

49

Iowa State

Big 12

71

2.5

50

Troy

Sun Belt

71

2

51

Kansas

Big 12

70.5

1

52

Air Force

Mountain West

70

2.5

53

Auburn

SEC

70

3

54

Iowa

Big Ten

70

3

55

NC State

ACC

70

3

56

Toledo

MAC

70

2.5

57

Tulane

AAC

70

3

58

Missouri

SEC

69.5

2.5

59

Pitt

ACC

69.5

2

60

South Carolina

SEC

68.5

2

61

Arizona State

Pac-12

68

2.5

62

California

Pac-12

68

2

63

San Jose State

Mountain West

68

2

64

SMU

AAC

68

3.5

65

UAB

Conference USA

68

3.5

66

Arizona

Pac-12

67.5

2

67

UTSA

Conference USA

67

2

68

Miami (FL)

ACC

66.5

2.5

69

BYU

Independent

66

2

70

Houston

AAC

66

2

71

Michigan State

Big Ten

66

2

72

Stanford

Pac-12

66

2

73

Western Kentucky

Conference USA

66

2

74

Marshall

Sun Belt

65.5

2

75

Memphis

AAC

65.5

3.5

76

Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

64

2

77

Liberty

Independent

64

3.5

78

Nebraska

Big Ten

64

1.5

79

Tulsa

AAC

64

2

80

Duke

ACC

63.5

2

81

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

62.5

2

82

Indiana

Big Ten

62

2

83

Rutgers

Big Ten

62

1.5

84

Virginia

ACC

62

3

85

Louisiana

Sun Belt

61.5

3

86

North Texas

Conference USA

61.5

2

87

Georgia Southern

Sun Belt

61

2.5

88

Buffalo

MAC

60.5

3.5

89

Georgia State

Sun Belt

60.5

2

90

San Diego State

Mountain West

60.5

2

91

Virginia Tech

ACC

60

2

92

Arkansas State

Sun Belt

59

2

93

Old Dominion

Sun Belt

59

2

94

Eastern Michigan

MAC

58.5

2

95

Middle Tennessee

Conference USA

58.5

2.5

96

Ohio

MAC

58.5

2

97

Texas State

Sun Belt

58.5

1.5

98

Army

Independent

58

3

99

Georgia Tech

ACC

58

2

100

Wyoming

Mountain West

58

2.5

101

UNLV

Mountain West

57.5

1

102

Kent State

MAC

57

2.5

103

Navy

AAC

57

2

104

Northwestern

Big Ten

57

2

105

Rice

Conference USA

57

1

106

Utah State

Mountain West

57

2

107

Ball State

MAC

56

2

108

Florida Atlantic

Conference USA

56

3

109

Louisiana-Monroe

Sun Belt

55.5

2

110

Miami (OH)

MAC

55.5

3

111

Northern Illinois

MAC

55.5

2

112

Vanderbilt

SEC

55.5

1

113

Colorado

Pac-12

55

2

114

Boston College

ACC

54

2

115

Temple

AAC

54

2

116

UTEP

Conference USA

54

1

117

South Florida

AAC

53

2

118

UConn

Independent

52.5

1

119

Central Michigan

MAC

51.5

2.5

120

Louisiana Tech

Conference USA

51.5

2

121

Bowling Green

MAC

50.5

1

122

Western Michigan

MAC

50

2

123

New Mexico

Mountain West

49

1

124

Nevada

Mountain West

47.5

3

125

Charlotte

Conference USA

46.5

2

126

Colorado State

Mountain West

46.5

1.5

127

Hawaii

Mountain West

46

2

128

FIU

Conference USA

45.5

2

129

New Mexico State

Independent

45.5

2

130

Akron

MAC

41.5

1

131

UMass

Independent

37

1.5

Here are the Week 10 adjustments:

Up: Southern Miss + 1.5, Utah + 1, FIU + 2.5, East Carolina + 1.5, Illinois + 2, Missouri + 2, Tennessee + 5, Penn State + 1, Louisville + 3, Virginia + 1, Minnesota + 2.5, South Alabama + 2, Oklahoma + 2, Colorado + 3, Charlotte + 2, Fresno State + 6 (Haener return), UCLA + 1.5, Oregon + 1.5, Baylor + 2, Florida + 2, Hawaii + 2, Nevada + 2, Kansas State + 1.5, North Carolina + 2, Arkansas + 1.5, UConn + 2, Florida State + 2, Miami (OH) + 3 (Gabbert return), Temple + 2, Middle Tennessee + 2, San Diego State + 2.5, UCF + 2, Central Michigan + 2, NC State + 2, Iowa + 2, Kansas + 1.5, Alabama + 2

Down: BYU -1.5, Nebraska -1, Boston College -3.5, South Carolina -4, Kentucky -2.5, Georgia Tech -2, Ohio State -1, Wake Forest -2, Syracuse -2, Miami (FL) -1, Cincinnati -2.5, Pitt -2, Arkansas State -2, Iowa State -3.5, Arizona State -2, Rice -2, Stanford -3, Texas Tech -2.5, Navy -4 (QB Lavatai OFY), Wyoming -2, San Jose State -2.5, UTEP -2, Northern Illinois -1, Rutgers -3, Oklahoma State -2, New Mexico -2.5, LSU -2

Injury: Toledo -5 (if Finn out), UAB -4 (if Hopkins out), Utah -5 (if Rising out), Kansas State (-3 if Martinez out), UCF -4 (if Plumlee out), SMU -8 (if Mordecai out; Stone OFY) Tulsa -5 (if Brin out), Kansas -6 (if Daniels out), Utah State -3 (if Legas out), James Madison -6 (if Centeio out)

Some notes on the biggest adjustments:

Tennessee + 5: Tennessee obviously appears to be the real deal. That was a dominant performance offensively and defensively against a pretty good Kentucky team. I still have Georgia a little bit more of a favorite than the market, but have certainly given the Vols their due.

South Carolina -4: Another ghastly offensive performance from the Gamecocks may not allow me to fade them in future weeks as I talked about on our College Football Podcast. South Carolina has had some great special teams this season, but the offense is extremely inefficient. This team is -0.68 yards per play in SEC action. It’s been a lot of smoke and mirrors and last week’s loss to Missouri was a prime example of the regression likely to come.

Boston College -3.5: Losing by double digits to UConn is noticeable for any team. Doing so as a member of a Power Five conference makes it that much worse.

Iowa State -3.5: So, it seems that I’ve gone a little too far with Iowa State based on this week’s line, but the Cyclones made Oklahoma’s defense look good last week. Iowa State is 0-5 in Big 12 play and it’s clear that the losses of Breece Hall and others have caught up with this team.

Injuries: Fresno State went up six points with the return of Jake Haener; Navy went down four points with the loss of Tai Lavatai for the season. Plenty of QBs remain in the spotlight this week.

Here are my Week 10 spreads:

Date

Away

Home

My Line

11/1

Ball State

Kent State

-3.5

 

Buffalo

Ohio

PK

 

 

 

 

11/2

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-6

 

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

+ 0.5

 

 

 

 

11/3

UTEP

Rice

-4

 

App State

Coastal Carolina

+ 5

 

 

 

 

11/4

Duke

Boston College

+ 7.5

 

UMass

UConn

-16.5

 

Oregon State

Washington

-4

 

 

 

 

11/5

Air Force

Army (N – Arlington)

+ 12

 

UNC

Virginia

+ 10.5

 

Michigan

Rutgers

+ 25.5

 

Wake Forest

NC State

+ 4

 

Florida State

Miami (FL)

+ 11.5

 

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

-4

 

Iowa

Purdue

-5

 

Penn State

Indiana

+ 15

 

James Madison (w/ Centeio)

Louisville

-6

 

Syracuse

Pitt

+ 2

 

Oklahoma State

Kansas (w/ Daniels)

+ 5

 

Navy

Cincinnati

-20.5

 

USF

Temple

-3

 

Minnesota

Nebraska

+ 11.5

 

Marshall

Old Dominion

+ 4.5

 

Liberty

Arkansas

-15.5

 

Michigan State

Illinois

-12

 

Maryland (w/ Tagovailoa)

Wisconsin

-2

 

Texas

Kansas State

+ 1

 

Baylor

Oklahoma

PK

 

Kentucky

Missouri

+ 5

 

Ohio State

Northwestern

+ 38.5

 

Western Kentucky

Charlotte

+ 17.5

 

Oregon

Colorado

+ 30.5

 

BYU

Boise State

-10.5

 

Arizona

Utah

-18.5

 

Colorado State

San Jose State

-23.5

 

Hawaii

Fresno State

-29

 

Washington State

Stanford

+ 5.5

 

Cal

USC

-18

 

Middle Tennessee

Louisiana Tech

+ 5

 

UCLA

Arizona State

+ 11

 

Florida

Texas A&M

-5

 

Tulane

Tulsa (w/ Brin)

+ 4

 

Houston

SMU (w/ Mordecai)

-5.5

 

Troy

Louisiana

+ 6.5

 

Georgia State

Southern Miss

-4

 

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

+ 12

 

Auburn

Mississippi State

-6.5

 

Tennessee

Georgia

-10

 

Texas Tech

TCU

-11.5

 

UCF

Memphis

+ 6.5

 

West Virginia

Iowa State

-1

 

New Mexico

Utah State (w/ Legas)

-10

 

UTSA

UAB (w/ Hopkins)

-4.5

 

Alabama

LSU

+ 10

 

FIU

North Texas

-18

 

South Alabama

Georgia Southern

+ 8.5

 

Texas State

UL Monroe

+ 1

 

UNLV

San Diego State

-5

 

Clemson

Notre Dame

+ 3

Some games to consider:

Ohio + 3 (PK) vs. Buffalo: Tuesday night MACtion has some potential, as Wednesday’s games project to be quite a bit uglier. If Ohio gets north of 3 at some shops, I’ll have a Bobcats ticket. Buffalo has been impressive this season, but Ohio has a much more explosive offense in a battle of bad defenses.

Air Force -6.5 (-12) vs. Army: This is one where you need to adjust your raw power rating for the low total and the similarities between the two teams, but I still don’t think this should be under a touchdown at a neutral site. I really don’t think Army is any good and Air Force was a team that I loved coming into the season.

Syracuse + 3.5 (-2) vs. Pitt: Pitt has a one-dimensional offense, as they can really only run the football. That’s what Pat Narduzzi seemed to want by hiring Frank Cignetti. I don’t think Syracuse is great, but they’re very well-coached defensively.

Fresno State -23 (-29) vs. Hawaii: Jake Haener means so much to this Fresno State team. I think they’re ready to put a beating on somebody with him back. He looked good last week and should look even better this week. I know Hawaii has been a riser in some people’s power ratings, but I think they’re outgunned big time here.

South Carolina -7 (-12) vs. Vanderbilt: Even with a big move down on the Gamecocks, I’m not at single digits in this game. Vandy is off of a bye, but the Commdores have scored 45 points in four SEC games and -134 in conference point differential. Also, a betting angle to think about moving forward is how teams need six wins for bowl eligibility. South Carolina plays Florida, Tennessee and Clemson, so they might want to get that win this week.

West Virginia + 6.5 (+ 1) vs. Iowa State: The problem with WVU is that they’ve allowed well over six yards per play on defense. The problem with Iowa State is that the offense stinks. This looks to be too many points for the Mountaineers.

Be sure to tune into Tuesday’s edition of the College Football Podcast with host Tim Murray and some of my musings and ramblings. Rate, review, subscribe!

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