Week 1 college football power ratings and game spreads

Week 0 is in the books, which means that it is time to evaluate the performances of the 11 FBS teams that were in action. Before I get into my process of updating teams from a power ratings standpoint, I want to reiterate some key points from last week’s initial posting.

Power ratings are a living organism. They are always changing and adapting to different variables and they are never going to be perfect. The goal is that the lines in the market move towards the lines in your power ratings. If that is happening at a high rate, then your set of power ratings is pretty successful. If not, then there are additional adjustments that need to be made. (Read about how I make my power ratings HERE.)

Power ratings are designed to help get out in front of the market moves. The idea is that if your line on a game is -6 and the market line is -2.5, you can jump in and get a good number with the expectation that the line moves towards yours. Therefore, these are designed to really be utilized the most early in the week, which means making bets early in the week. That can be uncomfortable for some people, but the best indicator of future success is getting value relative to the closing line. That’s the practice we’re aiming for here.

Lastly, this is primarily designed to be an educational and informational tool. I’m looking for early-week bets to get good numbers, but I’m also trying to help readers look at different ways of approaching college football. Most bettors simply take whatever numbers are out there on game day. That isn’t the best strategy for success.

Now, let’s talk about the process I go through each week to update my power ratings. Before the games are even played, I figure out my lines for the following week. I want to avoid overreactions and having my numbers in place before the games are played will keep me from making too big of an adjustment.

Here is the three-step process I use to update my power ratings:

1. Compare my line with the closing line: The most efficient way to see if you had a good line on a game is to compare it with where the line closed. Millions of bets come in worldwide on these games and the closing line is going to be the best indicator of market perception and betting activity. If my line was -10 and the game closed -14, it is a sign that I need to adjust one or both of the teams. If my line was -10 and the game opened there, but closed -6, then I have to adjust.

2. Box score study: This one is really important in my mind. I go through and look at the box scores for every game. How did the game play out? What are the reasons it didn’t play to expectation? Was there a big turnover margin discrepancy? Did a team squander red-zone chances? Missed field goals? Interceptions deep in their own territory? What happened in that game that led to the final result? How much should I take that into account when adjusting a team?

This week’s shining example is Nevada vs. New Mexico State. Nevada won 23-12 and covered, but was + 5 in turnover margin and got outgained for the game. We usually see line moves against teams with misleading results and we see one here with Nevada this week.

3. Check for injuries: This is not easy in college football. Major injuries on major teams get national publicity. Injuries in small conferences do not. I crowdsource a variety of places to get this intel to make sure that I’m on top of as many of the player losses as possible.

Early in the season, I may adjust faster or slower to some teams. I put in a lot of hours putting together power ratings and preseason thoughts that I don’t want to just ignore because of a couple of data points. Other times, I’ll admit defeat on a team quickly to ensure that I’m not too far off of market, losing money on that team all the time.

Each week, I’ll post my updated 1 through 131 power ratings, the plus-minus (up/down) adjustments I made on teams (along with explanations on the biggest movers), my lines for all of the FBS vs. FBS games and then suggested bets based on my power ratings.

Here are my Week 1 Power Ratings:

Here are my Week 1 power ratings adjustments with some notes:

Up: North Texas + 1, Vanderbilt + 1.5, UNLV + 1, Northwestern + 1.5, Florida State + 1.5, FAU + 2, Southern Miss + 3

Down: Nebraska -2.5, UTEP -1, Hawaii -2, Western Kentucky -1, Utah State -1, Nevada -2, UConn -2, Liberty -4, Penn State -1.5 (update: had done this in my win total spreadsheet, but did not carry over to PR sheet)

Liberty (-4): A market correction adjustment here. I appear to have been too high on Liberty based on my line for Week 1 and my win total projection. Similarly, I moved Southern Miss (+ 3) for the same reasons and because some people I really respect went heavy on over their season win total.

Nebraska (-2.5): Scott Frost is just a bad head coach. Sure, Pat Fitzgerald is a good one, but that’s a really bad loss for Nebraska as a two-touchdown favorite. I’m not sure the Huskers can improve that much with him at the helm.

UConn (-2): UConn lost Ta’Quan Roberson to a torn ACL. He was the most promising QB on the roster and won the job, so this has to be a downgrade. It may be worth more than that, but we’ll have to wait and see.

FAU (+ 2): My line was close here, but FAU looked extremely efficient on offense with new OC Brent Dearmon. I liked the hire and I liked what I saw in Week 0.

Here are my lines for the Week 1 games (sorted by Rotation Number):

Before I mention the games on my radar, I have to clarify a few things. Early in the season, I’m looking for a bigger difference between my number and the market number to fire. Everybody is trying to figure out these teams early in the year, so there is a lot of uncertainty. If I have a bigger discrepancy, I feel more confident in that pick.

Also, the numbers within that difference are important. I’m less worried about having a game -27 and the market having it -21 because those aren’t important numbers. But if I have -8 and a game is lined -4, I get numbers like 6 and 7 that are “key numbers” and of much greater importance.

Based on my power ratings, here are some bets on my radar:

Pitt -7.5 (-11.5): My line here is -11.5, which may, admittedly, be a little high on Pitt, who is employing more of a ground-and-pound attack. I’m a little lower on WVU than the market, which is why I’m in double digits here. The line for the Backyard Brawl is rising.

Illinois + 3 (PK): The Illini have already played a game. There is no preseason. I’m also intentionally high on Illinois because I like what Bret Bielema did last season and I like the addition of Tommy DeVito. Indiana was really bad last season and I don’t see many roster upgrades. I liked this better at + 3.5 or + 4 before Illinois crushed Wyoming, but I still think they have a great chance to win outright here and + 3 is worth a bet.

BYU -12 (-16): I’d maybe look first half here since it’ll be hot and humid in Tampa with a BYU team coming in from Provo, Utah. But, I do think this line should be higher. I like Gerry Bohanon and USF and think the Bulls should be improved, but the Cougars are a really strong team that plays a very physical brand of football that USF doesn’t see in the AAC. You can even find 11 here in town or 11.5 in faraway places.

App State + 1 (-2.5): My power ratings say that the wrong team is favored here. North Carolina might be better, but the offense will take some time without Sam Howell and the defense feels suspect year in and year out. App State has an excellent running game and this will be a huge game in Boone. From a power ratings standpoint and a handicapping standpoint, I like the Mountaineers.

Middle Tennessee + 6 (+ 1.5): I’m not sure what to do with James Madison. This has been an FCS powerhouse, but the leap to FBS is significant with more scholarships and better overall talent. I’m also concerned about how much James Madison lost, specifically QB Cole Johnson. Middle Tennessee had a ton of injuries at the QB position and I’m high-ish on them entering the season.

UMass + 29 (+ 24.5): I’ve noticed that I’ve been low on Tulane in the lead-up to the season. My season win total projection is well below market, but I didn’t see much to like on the roster. That being said, I’d rather not start my season with a bet on UMass at virtually any number. I just wanted to mention it because it’s the biggest discrepancy I had, but sometimes you don’t want to just blindly trust your power ratings. There may be a proverbial glitch in the matrix ... like one that tells you to bet on UMass.

I’m open to questions and happy to do what I can to help. Hit me up on Twitter, @SkatingTripods, or aburke [at] vsin dot com via email.