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Wednesday Stanley Cup Final and MLB Sharp Report (7-7)

July 7, 2021 12:10 AM

Today, we have another jam-packed betting slate, featuring 17 MLB games and 1 Stanley Cup Final playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of games today.

12:35 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (41-44) at Pittsburgh Pirates (32-53)

The Pirates have shocked the Braves in both games this series, winning the opener 11-1 as + 170 home dogs and winning again last night 2-1 as + 175 home dogs. In this early afternoon rematch, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Drew Smyly (6-3, 4.42 ERA) and the Pirates start righty Wil Crowe (1-5, 6.26 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a big -165 road favorite and Pittsburgh a + 150 home dog. Gambler's Fallacy says the Pirates stink and there's no way the Braves can get swept. However, despite the public rushing to the window to lay the big price with the Braves, we've actually seen Atlanta fall from -165 to -155. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the Pirates at another juicy plus money payout (+ 150 to + 140). Pittsburgh has value as a super contrarian home dog and a dog with a high total (9). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the higher amount of expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. The forecast calls for mid 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to left center.

4:07 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (54-33) at Los Angeles Angels (43-42)

These non-division opponents have split the first two games of the series. The Red Sox took the opener 5-4 as -125 road favorites and then the Angels bounced back with a 5-3 win on Tuesday night, cashing as + 103 home dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, Boston sends out lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (6-4, 5.42 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with fellow southpaw Andrew Heaney (4-6, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Angels a + 105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Red Sox to avenge last night's loss, as we've seen Boston creep up from -115 to -125. Non-division favorites with steam of 10-cents or more in their direction have gone 175-101 (63.4%) this season. Boston has mashed lefties this season (18-12). The Angels are .500 against southpaws (13-13). The Red Sox are 30-20 as a favorite and 27-16 on the road. The Angels are 17-22 as dogs. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. The Angels have been one of the best over teams in MLB (51-34). Angel Stadium has been the best over stadium in baseball this season (29-16). The forecast calls for low 80s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center.

8 p.m. ET: Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

This is Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Lightning lead the series 3-1 and can hoist Lord Stanley's Cup for the second time in two seasons with a win tonight. Montreal is coming off an impressive 3-2 overtime win in Game 4 to stave off elimination, cashing as + 125 home dogs. Now the series shifts back to Tampa Bay. This Game 5 line opened with the Lightning listed as a hefty -210 home favorite and the Candiens a + 190 road dog. We've seen respected money lean Tampa, pushing the Lightning up from -210 to -225. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 31-18 (63.3%) this postseason. Home favorites off a loss are 15-9 (62.5%). The Lightning in particular have been incredible bouncing back from a loss in the postseason. Over the past two playoffs, the Lightning are an amazing 15-0 (100%) coming off a loss. This speaks to the resilience and mental toughness of the team. The total is listed at 5 with the over juiced to -125. Bettors should keep an eye out for a book offering an alternate line of under 5.5 (juiced to -150). The hook is crucial for unders, that way a 3-2 game cashes instead of pushes (like what we saw in Game 4). The Lightning are 11-8-3 to the under this postseason. The Canadiens are 10-6-5 to the under. Historically, we've tended to see lower scoring games deeper into Stanley Cup final series as the weight of an elimination game leads to less chance taking and tighter games. Leading 3-1, the Lightning are -2000 favorites to win the series (95.2% chance). The Lightning are + 1200 dogs.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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