If you like laying chalk in the NBA, Tuesday was the day for you. Much to the chagrin of sportsbooks, favorites rewarded public bettors by going 6-1 ATS yesterday. The only dog to cover was the Nets upsetting the Magic 108-96 as 4.5-point dogs.
Here were the six favorite covers
Spurs (-4.5) over Rockets 123-105
Suns (-9.5) over 76ers 130-117
Celtics (-4.5) over Grizzlies 122-107
Blazers (-2.5) over Mavericks 134-131
Kings (-3.5) over Pelicans 112-106
Bucks (-9) over Wizards 126-113
Thanks to their dominant showing, favorites are now 36-35-1 ATS in the bubble. Meanwhile, unders went 4-3. Many bettors cashed the Celtics-Grizzlies over, which opened at 225 and closed at 229.5. But it landed on 229, which is technically a win for the under based on the closing line. This also speaks to the importance of not betting bad numbers after they've moved too far. Imagine having the over 229.5 and losing by a half point! Even with the winning under day, overs are still the top bet in Orlando posting a 40-32-1 record.
As we wind down the 8-game regular season in the NBA bubble, we ramp up the Stanley Cup playoffs. One trend to keep in mind as we officially begin the first round of the playoffs tonight is experience. In the quarterfinal round, teams with experience perform much better than their opponents. Since 2005, teams that made the playoffs the previous season going against teams that missed the playoffs the previous season have gone 170-112 (60.3%), according to Bet Labs Sports. Knowing the grind of the playoffs and what it takes to win white knuckle hockey games has been a big edge historically.
Aside from four NHL playoff games today, we also have 4 NBA games and 14 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups taking in some sharp action from respected bettors.
For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET.
4:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (12-6) vs Los Angeles Angels (7-11)
The Angels posted their second straight win over the A's last night, shutting out Oakland 6-0. Los Angeles was the epitome of a sharp play. Even though the public grabbed the A's, the line moved from Angels -130 to -165, a classic fade the trendy dog contrarian favorite play. Today Oakland will start veteran righty Chris Bassitt (1-0, 1.08 ERA) while Los Angeles counters with 24-year-old Griffin Canning (0-2, 3.14 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a modest -120 favorite and Oakland a 110 dog. Smart money has come down quickly on the Athletics, dropping the Angels to -110 and Oakland to even money 100. The A's have value as a road divisional dog with a high total. We're also seeing some sharp action hit the under. It opened at 9.5 and has been bet down to 9. This signals pro money grabbing the hook so they cash a possible 5-4 or 6-3 game.
6:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (7-11) vs Cincinnati Reds (8-9)
The Reds took last night's series opener 6-5 in extra innings, cashing as a hefty -180 favorite. Tonight, Kansas City sends Brad Keller (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound to face Cincinnati southpaw Wade Miley (0-1, 27.00 ERA). On paper, this is a starting pitching edge to the Royals. Both have only made one previous start this season and it came against the Cubs. Keller gave up no runs over 5 innings while Miley gave up 5 runs in 1.2 innings. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -130 home favorite and the Kansas City a 120 dog. Despite a slight majority of bets laying the short price with the Reds, we've seen this line fall away from Cincinnati (-130 to -120) and toward Kansas City ( 120 to 110). This signals sharp action on the road dog Royals. Pro money also seems to be leaning over. The total opened at 9 and the juice is up to -120, signaling a possible rise to 9.5.
8 p.m. ET: Montreal Canadiens vs Philadelphia Flyers
This first-round series pits two red-hot teams playing their best hockey. The Canadiens pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the qualifying round, taking down the Penguins 3 games to 1 to win the best-of-five series. Montreal was seeded 12th while Pittsburgh was 5th. Habs goaltender Carey Price was the star of the series, posting a minuscule 1.67 GAA and stellar .947 save percentage. Meanwhile, the Flyers went a perfect 3-0 in the round robin to earn the No. 1 seed in the East. Philadelphia beat three formidable foes in the Bruins, Capitals and Lightning by a combined score of 11-3. Tonight's line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 favorite and Montreal a 130 dog. Two-thirds of bets, both pro and public, have sided with the Flyers, pushing the line up to Philadelphia -155. Some books are closer to -160. Smart money is also eyeing a low scoring game. The total opened at 5.5 with -125 juice to the under and it's now risen to -130 or -140 depending on the book.
Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states.