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Wednesday Sharp Action Report for Raptors-Celtics, Marlins-Braves and Reds-Cubs

September 8, 2020 11:36 PM

Public bettors feasted and sportsbooks took a hit on Wednesday as popular favorites went a perfect 2-0 ATS. In the early game, the Heat eliminated the Bucks 103-94 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami was a massive public play and moved from -2.5 to -5.5 behind roughly three-quarters of bets. Early, middle and late Heat backers all cashed, handing Average Joes a big victory. 

In the late game, the Lakers took down the Rockets 112-102 to take a 2-1 series lead in the Western Conference Semifinals. Sharps were on Houston, who received less than half the tickets but moved from + 5.5 to + 4. But it was all for naught as the Lakers won by 10 and easily covered. 

The other main storyline from yesterday was the fact that unders went a perfect 2-0. Unders are now 13-3 (81%) in Round 2 and 35-23 (60%) in the playoffs. 

With Milwaukee eliminated from the playoffs, here are the updated NBA Title odds at BetMGM.

Clippers + 190

Lakers + 260

Heat + 400

Celtics + 500

Rockets + 1400

Raptors + 2500

Nuggets + 6500

In NFL news, a possibly major injury to Broncos' star pass rusher Von Miller has caused a big adjustment to the Denver-Tennessee Week 1 line. After opening at Broncos -2.5 at home, smart money has hit the Titans in recent days, dropping the line to a pick'em. With Miller possibly suffering a season-ending injury, the line flipped to Titans -2.5 last night. 

Today a new week begins with 2 NBA games, 1 NHL game and 12 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be jumping on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer a market update. You can also catch me co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics lead 3-2 and have a chance to eliminate the defending champion Raptors with a victory tonight. Boston is coming off a dominant 111-89 win in Game 5, covering as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Boston listed as a 2.5-point favorite. Sharps immediately got down on Boston -2.5, which has pushed the line to -3. The public is also backing the Celtics to the tune of two-thirds of spread bets. The Raptors will possess buy-low contrarian value in a heavily bet game. One variable to monitor here is Serge Ibaka. He is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The total is 210. The under is a perfect 5-0 this series. The Celtics are -358 favorites to win the series (78.2%). The Raptors are + 275. 

7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (19-18) at Atlanta Braves (24-18)

The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series, cashing 5-4 as a + 200 dog and 8-0 as a + 105 dog. In the final game of this three-game set, the Marlins start Pablo Lopez (3-3, 3.05 ERA) while the Braves counter with lefty trade deadline acquisition Tommy Milone (1-4, 5.30 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as -140 home favorites and the Marlins a + 130 dog. The public says the Braves are the far better team and can't possibly get swept. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Atlanta, we've seen the Braves fall from -140 to -132. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the streaking Fish (+ 130 to + 121). Miami also has value as a road divisional dog with a high total (9). 

8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (18-23) at Chicago Cubs (24-18)

The Cubs took last night's series opener 3-0, cashing as a slight + 100 dog. Tonight we are treated to a pitcher's duel between Cincinnati's Trevor Bauer (3-3, 2.05 ERA) and Chicago's Yu Darvish (7-1, 1.44 ERA). This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -140 home favorite and the Reds a + 130 road underdog. Right off the bat, the fact that the Cubs are listed as such a substantial favorite in a game with two aces going head-to-head speaks volumes about the respect for Chicago and Darvish especially. The public is split and doesn't know who to back but sharps have made up their mind. Pros have rushed to the window to lay the minus price with Chicago, which has pushed the Cubs up from -140 to -150. Also, keep an eye out for the total on this game. The wind is expected to blow straight in at 15 MPH, which would greatly benefit the under. 

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