Tuesday was a thrilling night of NBA playoffs action as underdogs went 2-0 straight up and ATS. In the early game, the Heat (+ 2) outlasted the Celtics 117-114 in overtime to take a 1-0 series lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami opened + 1.5, closed + 2 and won outright, cashing + 110 on the moneyline. Sharp money was on the under, which dropped the total from 211.5 to 209. But the over cashed in the final minute of regulation before sailing even higher in overtime.
In the late game, the public beat the sharps once again as the Nuggets (+ 7.5) shocked the Clippers 104-89 to win Game 7 and advance to the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers. Denver overcame a 3-1 series deficit for the second time this playoffs. The Nuggets were + 2000 to win the series when they were down 3-1. Two-thirds of bets were on Denver and the points last night, yet sharp money moved Los Angeles from -7 to -7.5. Sharp action was on Los Angeles nearly every game this series and the public won out on multiple occasions. Pros were, however, able to cash their Game 7 under system. The total opened at 208, closed at 207.5 and landed on 193. Historically, Game 7 unders are a profitable bet due to tired legs, defensive emphasis and the added pressure of a do-or-die game. Game 7 unders are 4-0 this playoffs.
With the Clippers being eliminated, we are now down to the Final Four in the NBA. Here are the updated Title odds at BetMGM.
Heat + 300
Celtics + 525
Nuggets + 1000
Today, we have a breather from basketball and hockey. But we still have 16 MLB games to get down on. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I will also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss a notable MLB matchup receiving smart money today.
7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (21-27) at Philadelphia Phillies (24-23)
The Phillies took last night's series opener 4-1, cashing as + 114 home dogs. Tonight, bettors are treated to a five-start pitching duel as the Mets send out ace Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) to face Phillies ace Aaron Nola (4-0, 2.47 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Philadelphia a + 120 dog. We've seen smart money rush to the window to back deGrom and the Mets as a low favorite price. This lopsided support has pushed New York from -130 to -140. Some books are inching closer to -150. Road favorites have been a profitable bet this season, cashing at roughly a 61% clip. The Mets are also a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals benefit favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team.
In yesterday's newsletter we mentioned some early NFL Week 2 action. Here is a look at early college football line movement for this upcoming Saturday
UL Lafayette-Georgia State Under 60 to 58.5
Appalachian State -3.5 to -4.5 at Marshall
Georgia Southern + 5.5 to + 2 vs Florida Atlantic
Texas State -3.5 to -6 at UL Monroe
Wake Forest-NC State Under 54.5 to 52.5