Tuesday was a great day for sharp line moves in the NBA. Dogs and favorites split 1-1. But that doesn't tell the whole story. In the early game, the Nuggets staved off elimination and beat the Jazz 117-107. It was a massive hit for contrarians, sportsbooks and wiseguys as two-thirds of bets backed Utah as a favorite, yet the Jazz fell from -3 to -2.5. This clear reverse line movement signaled sharp action hitting Denver plus the points. The Nuggets covered and won outright, cashing as + 120 dogs.
In the late game, the Clippers blew out the Mavericks 154-111 to take a 3-2 series lead. Spread bets were split on this game and the public didn't know who to take. They had just witnessed Luka Legend win Game 4 in dramatic fashion, but also respected Kawhi and the Clippers. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. However, despite the 50/50 ticket split, Los Angeles moved from -6 to -8. This line move was the result of both sharp action laying the points and Kristaps Porzingis being out for Dallas.
Favorites are now 21-11-1 ATS (65.6%) this postseason. Overs went 2-0 on Tuesday and are 18-16 (52.9%).
Today we have another packed slate with 3 NBA games, 3 NHL games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum.
Also, Brady Kannon and I will be filling in for Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on the Lombardi Line today. Join us from noon-1 p.m. ET as we break down the day's sharp action across the MLB, NBA and NHL.
In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable smart money today.
9 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Lakers
After dropping the series opener, the Lakers have won three straight against the Blazers to take a 3-1 series lead. Los Angeles can finish off Portland with a win tonight. This Game 5 line opened with the Lakers listed as 12.5-point favorites, the highest spread of any game this series. Previous spreads were Lakers -6.5, -7, -7.5 and -7. Both Pros and Joes have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Lakers, who are coming off a 135-115 shellacking of Portland in Game 4. With roughly two-thirds of bets backing the favorites, Los Angeles has moved from -12.5 to -13.5. Some books are even at -14. The elephant in the room here is the injury to Blazers star Damian Lillard. He was ruled out with a knee sprain. The Lillard injury has also caused the total to drop from 225.5 to 222.5.
9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Both teams will start big-name pitchers who have struggled this season, with the Rockies sending out Jon Gray (1-3, 6.23 ERA) and the Diamondbacks countering with Robbie Ray (1-3, 8.33 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a short -114 home favorite and the Rockies a + 104 road dog. Smart money has sided with the Snakes at home, pushing Arizona up to -120. Also, despite both pitchers having high ERAs, we've seen some sharp action on the under. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. One variable to monitor here is the Chase Field roof. If it's closed, that benefits the under as the ball doesn't travel as well and it is perfect conditions for the pitchers.
10:30 p.m. ET: Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars
This best-of-seven series is the most surprising of Round 2. The Avs were a -250 favorite to win the series, but have dug themselves an 0-2 hole. With Dallas leading 2-0, Colorado has flipped from a -250 series favorite to a + 250 series dog. Simply put, this is now must-win territory for the Avs. This Game 3 line opened with Colorado listed as a -125 favorite and Dallas a + 115 dog. Smart money has come down on the desperate Avs, pushing the line up to Colorado -135. Some books are closer to -140. Both of the first two games have easily gone over, with Dallas winning 5-3 and 5-2. This total is 5.5 but the juice is an even -110 on both sides. You would have expected it to be shaded to the over but it's not.
Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states.