Wednesday NIT College Basketball Sharp Report

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Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 4 College Basketball postseason games, 11 NBA games and 4 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of NIT games receiving sharp action tonight...

So far, dogs are 16-10 ATS (62%) in the NIT. Overs are 15-11 (58%). Teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 18-13 ATS (58%). 

 

7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest vs Texas A&M

This is the NIT Quarterfinal. Wake Forest (25-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS) beat Towson 74-64 in the opening round, covering as 8.5-point favorites, and then took down VCU 80-74 in round two, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (25-12 SU, 20-15-1 ATS) has beaten Alcorn State 74-62, failing to cover as 18.5-point favorites, and then edged Oregon 75-60, covering as 4-point favorites.

This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 2.5-point home favorite (yes, this a true home game for the Aggies). The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. But a closer look at the spread signals liability on Texas A&M, with several shops juicing up the Aggies -2.5 to -115, signaling a possible rise to 3. Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by three points (76-73). The Aggies are 15-4 at home this season. Wake Forest is 5-5 on the road. NIT home teams are 18-8 straight up this tournament. The Aggies are -150 on the moneyline.

Both of these teams are "over teams," with Wake Forest 20-14 to the over and Texas A&M 23-13 to the over. The total has yet to budge off the opener of 146.5. Wake Forest is one of the faster paced teams in the country with an adjusted temp of 70.5. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Washington State vs BYU

This is the NIT Quarterfinal. Washington State (21-14 SU, 15-20 ATS) took down Santa Clara 63-50 in the opener, covering as 3.5-point favorites, and then upset SMU 75-63, winning outright as 2.5-point dogs. Now they face BYU (24-10 SU, 15-17 ATS), who crushed Long Beach State 93-72, covering as 11.5-point favorites and then dismissed Northern Iowa 90-71, covering as 5-point favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Pros have jumped on Washington State plus the hook, dropping the line from 3.5 to 3. Ken Pom has BYU winning by four points (73-69), which means the betting market is slightly more bullish on Washington State than the advanced analytics.

Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 143.5 to 142.5. Washington State has been one of the best under teams this season (20-13-2). The under is 2-0 in Washington State's first two NIT games. Washington State plays a slow pace with an adjusted temp of 66.3. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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