Wednesday NBA Sharp Report (6-16)

June 16, 2021 12:51 AM

Bettors have another loaded slate today, including 15 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Ryan Ballengee of Golf News Net and also talk with Adam Burke of ATS Radio. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two NBA playoff games...

7:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling 103-100 win in Game4, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This Game 5 line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public expects a bounce back performance from Philadelphia and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the 76ers at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the 76ers fall from -7 to -6. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Hawks, with pros grabbing the points on a road dog riding high off a win. Teams with a line move of a full point or more in their direction are 11-8 ATS (58%) this postseason. We've also seen some under money show up. Despite the public hammering the over, the total has fallen from 224.5 to 223.5. The over/under is 2-2 this series. Unders are 10-7 (59%) so far in Round Two. One injury to keep an eye out for here is 76ers star center Joel Embiid. He is playing through pain due to a torn meniscus in his knee and it appeared to hobble him in the second half of Game 4. With the series tied 2-2, the 76ers are a -300 favorite (75% implied probability) to advance to the next round. The Hawks are a + 240 dog to win the series. 

10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. After dropping the first two games in Utah, the Clippers have roared back to win two straight in Los Angeles and even the series. The Clippers have won and covered in their past two games, most recently beating the Jazz 118-104 in Game 4, easily covering as a 5-point home favorite. Now the series shifts back to Utah. This Game 5 line opened with the Jazz listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Both Pros and Joes appear to be backing the Jazz as we've seen this line tick up slightly from -2.5 to -3. Favorites with a line move in their favor of at least a half point are 25-15 ATS (62.5%) this postseason. Home favorites are 29-19 ATS (60%), including 8-3 ATS (73%) in Round Two. Short favorites -5 or less are 26-15 ATS (63%) this postseason. The Jazz also have value as a buy-low favorite off a blowout loss of 10-point or more (roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). Sharps have also targeted the under, driving the total down from 223 to 222. The over/under is 2-2 this series. Be sure to monitor the status of Jazz point guard Mike Conley. He has yet to play in this series due to a hamstring injury and remains questionable for Game 5. With the series tied 2-2, the Jazz are a slight -140 favorite to advance to the next round. The Clippers are a + 115 dog to win the series. 

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM

Nets + 180

Suns + 375

Jazz + 450

Clippers + 550

76ers + 750

Bucks + 1000

Hawks + 5000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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