Wednesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded menu of sweats to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Now let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The 4-seed Mavericks enter as the Cinderella, having taken down the Jazz in six games in the opening round and then upsetting the Suns in seven games in the second round. Meanwhile, the 3-seed Warriors brushed aside the Nuggets in four games in the opening round and then beat the Grizzlies in six games in the second round. 

In tonight's series opener, the Warriors opened as 5.5-point home favorites. The public is happy to lay the chalk with Golden State at home. However, despite this lopsided betting in favor of the Warriors we've seen Golden State fall from -5.5 to -5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Dallas, who is only receiving roughly one-third of bets but saw the line adjusted in their favor. Dallas is 23-18 ATS (56%) as a dog this season, including 6-4 ATS as a dog in the postseason. 

Wiseguys are also expecting a lower scoring game. The total opened at 215 and has been bet down to 214.5, indicating some liability to the under. Unders are 49-27 (65%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-13 (69%). Dallas is one of the top under teams this season, with the under going 57-36 in Mavs games. The under is 27-18 for Golden State at home. 

The Warriors are -225 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +185 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at +150. 

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