Wednesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

mavs

Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including two NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 17 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

This is Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead the series 1-0 after cruising to a 106-92 win in the opener, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Heat. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Miami fall from -9 to -8. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on Philadelphia plus the points. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from a super low opener of 206.5 to 207.5. Leading 1-0, Miami is a -650 favorite to win the series. The 76ers are a +450 dog. Philadelphia will once again be missing Joel Embiid for this game (orbital fracture). 

 

10 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead the series 1-0 after securing a 121-114 win in the opener, covering as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is once again laying the points with the Suns at home. However, this line hasn't budged off the opener of 6. This signals some sharp line freeze action on the Mavericks, with oddsmakers refusing to adjust the number toward the popular favorite for fear of handing out a better number to contrarian Mavs backers. The total hasn't moved off the opener of 216. Unders are 37-18 (67%) this postseason. Leading 1-0, the Suns are -500 favorites to win the series. Dallas is a +375 dog. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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