Wednesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including one NBA playoff game, one NHL playoff games and 13 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday’s betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


8:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The series is tied 2-2. The Celtics are coming off a 102-82 blowout win in Game 4, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Miami. 

This line opened with Boston listed as a short 1-point road favorite. We've seen respected money lay the point with the Celtics, pushing Boston up from -1 to -1.5. Favorites are 47-36 ATS (57%) this postseason. Favorites receiving line movement in their direction are 26-16 ATS (62%). Favorites are 57-26 (69%) straight up. Boston is -125 on the moneyline.

Miami went 29-12 at home in the regular season (best record in the Eastern Conference), including 7-1 at home in the postseason. The Heat are 19-9 ATS (68%) as a dog this season, while also going 21-12 ATS (64%) after a loss.

The total opened at a super-low 203.5. The public is rushing to the window to take the over. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged. This signals some sharp line freeze liability on the under. Unders are 52-31 (63%) this postseason.

There are several key injuries to monitor in this one, as Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are both questionable for Boston while Tyler Herro is questionable for Miami. 

Tied 2-2, Boston is a -175 favorite to win the series. Miami is a +145 dog. Boston is +230 to win the NBA Title, second best odds behind only Golden State (-140). Miami is +500. 

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CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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