Wednesday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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Bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from today, including a trio of NBA playoff games, 16 MLB games and 4 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff action...

 

7 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

The Celtics lead this series 1-0 after earning a thrilling 115-114 win at the buzzer in Game 1, although Boston failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Celtics opened as 3.5-point home favorites. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with Brooklyn. However, despite roughly three out of four bets taking the points, we've seen the line remain frozen at Boston -3.5. This signals a sharp line freeze on Boston, with oddsmakers refusing to drop the line despite heavy betting on the Nets. Boston has value as a contrarian home favorite in a "Fade the Trendy Dog" situational spot. Favorites are 14-6 ATS (70%) this postseason. We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 228 to 226. Unders are 13-7 (65%) this postseason. If the total falls, the under is 9-4 (69%). Leading 1-0, the Celtics are -225 favorites to win the series. The Nets are +180. 

 

8 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors

The 76ers lead this series 2-0 after winning both of the first two games at home. Philadelphia took the opener 131-111, covering as 5-point home favorites, and then won the second game 112-97, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Toronto. In tonight's rematch, the 76ers opened as 2-point road favorites. The public is hammering Philadelphia on the short chalk spread. However, this line has remained frozen at 2 and even fallen to 1.5 at some shops, signaling sharp reverse line movement on Toronto plus the points. The Raptors match a wiseguy system focusing on desperate teams down 2-0 coming home. These teams have performed well on the first quarter spread (Raptors are -0.5 for the first quarter). Typically these teams down 2-0 come out blazing in the first quarter. Pros have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 214.5 to 216.5. The 76ers Matisse Thybulle will miss this game due to Canada's vaccination rules. Leading 2-0, Philadelphia is -1600 to win the series. Toronto is +850.

 

9:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

The defending champion Bucks lead this series 1-0 after taking the opener 93-86, although Milwaukee failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Milwaukee opened as a 10-point home favorite. The recency-biased public just watched the Bulls cover the double-digit spread in the opener and are once again grabbing the points with Chicago. However, this line hasn't budged off Bucks -10. This indicate some wiseguy line freeze action on Milwaukee laying the points. Double digit playoff favorites are 73-55 ATS (57%) over the past 15 postseasons. The total has remained stagnant at 225, although some shops have briefly touched 224.5, signaling a slight sharp lean to the under. Leading 1-0, Milwaukee is now a -3000 favorite to win the series. Chicago is +1200. The Bucks could be worth a look to sweep the series, which carries an enticing +175 price tag. 

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