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Wednesday NBA Finals Game 4 Sharp Report

July 14, 2021 01:17 AM

Today we have a smaller than usual slate. MLB is on full hiatus with the All Star Break but we do have Game 4 of the NBA Finals. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's NBA Finals showdown...

9 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The Suns lead the series 2-1. After losing the first two games in Phoenix, the Bucks bounced back with a dominant 120-100 win in Game 3, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This Game 4 line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has come in on the Bucks to cover, as we've seen Milwaukee tick up from -3.5 to -4. Some shops have even touched -4.5 at times, but some Suns + 4.5 buyback dropped the line back down to 4. Essentially, all liability is on the side of the Bucks. Milwaukee has value as a short playoff favorite -5 or less (35-20 ATS, 64% this postseason). Also, favorites with a line move in their direction have gone 29-23 ATS (56%). Favorites are a perfect 3-0 ATS this NBA Finals. Favorites are 30-24 ATS (56%) in the NBA Finals over the past decade. The Bucks are 6-3 ATS at home this postseason. There also appears to be some under money coming in, as the total has ticked down slightly from 221 to 220.5. Leading the series 2-1, the Suns are -275 favorites to win the NBA Title (73%). The Bucks are + 225 dogs to win the series. 

Some Prop Bets to Consider (odds via BetMGM)

Cam Johnson over 8.5 points (-135)

*Johnson scored 14-points in Game 3. He has gone over 8.5-points in two of the three NBA Finals games and has gone over 6 of his last 8 playoff games. 

Chris Paul under 4.5 rebounds (-160)

*Paul grabbed zero boards in Game 3. He has gone under 4.5-rebounds in eight straight games.

Giannis under 3.5 turnovers (-165)

*Giannis had one turnover in Game 3. He has gone under 3.5-turnovers in all three NBA Finals games and eight of his last nine playoff games.

Jae Crowder over 16.5 points plus rebounds (-130)

*Crowder finished with a combined 24 points plus rebounds in Game 1. He has gone over 16.5 points plus rebounds in two straight games and three of his last four games. 

NBA Finals MVP

Paul -165

Giannis + 240

Booker + 600

Ayton + 2500

Middleton + 4000

Holiday, Bridges, Crowder + 12500

Exact Series Outcome

Suns win 4-1 (+ 275)

Suns win 4-2 (+ 300)

Suns win 4-3 (+ 260)

Bucks win 4-2 (+ 600)

Bucks win 4-3 (+ 500)

How many games will the series last?

5 games + 275

6 games + 175

7 games + !25

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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