Wednesday NBA Finals Game 3 Sharp Report


Today bettors have a plethora of sweats to choose from including 15 MLB games and Game 3 of the NBA Finals. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET

In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is leaning for tonight's NBA Finals showdown...


9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics

This is Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 1-1. The Celtics stole the opener 120-108, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Then the Warriors bounced back with a 107-88 win in Game 2, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Boston.

This line opened with Boston listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. According to BetMGM, the Celtics are receiving 51% of bets but 55% of money, which equates to a 4% smart money discrepancy in their favor. The line hasn't budged off 3.5. The next move be will be telling. If we see the line creep up to -4 on game day that will indicate further support for Boston. If it falls to 3, that will signal some respected Warriors money plus the points. 

Regardless of the next move, the Celtics match several betting systems. Boston is 24-13 ATS (65%) off a loss this season and hasn't lost consecutive games since January. Favorites are 51-38 ATS (57%) this postseason, including 61-28 (69%) straight up. The Celtics are -155 on the moneyline. 

We could be looking at another lower scoring game in this one. The total opened at 213 and has fallen to 212.5, signaling some sharp under support. Unders are 55-34 (62%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 33-15 (69%). When the total is 210 or more, the under is 47-24 (66%). 

Tied 1-1, the Warriors are a slight -115 favorite to win the series. The Celtics are a -105 dog. 

Steph Curry is the favorite to win NBA Finals MVP at  100. Jayson Tatum has the second-best odds at  135, followed by Jaylen Brown  750. 

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