Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a 10-15 minute podcast highlighting the top games and biggest line moves that bettors need to know about each day. For in-depth coverage of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Follow the Money at 6:30 a.m. ET this morning

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

2:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (61-81) at Chicago White Sox (73-69)

The White Sox won Tuesday night's Interleague series opener 4-2, cashing as -190 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Rockies hand the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland (8-9, 4.63 ERA) and the White Sox counter with ace righty Dylan Cease (14-6, 2.06 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -220 home favorite and Colorado a +200 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the White Sox up from -220 to -240. Home favorites -200 or more are 254-102 (71%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against opponents who did not are 545-302 (64%). Both teams are hitting roughly .260. The difference comes on the mound, with Chicago sporting a team ERA of 3.95 vs 5.11 for Colorado. The White Sox also have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). Cease has given up zero earned runs in two September starts. Colorado is just 43-71 as a dog, 21-47 on the road and 35-52 against righties. 

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (74-67) at Washington Nationals (49-93)

The Orioles took last night's Interleague series opener 4-3, taking care of business as -155 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Baltimore hands the ball to righty Tyler Wells (7-6, 3.91 ERA) and Washington turns to lefty Patrick Corbin (6-18, 6.30 ERA). This line opened with the Orioles listed as a -135 road favorite and the Nats a +120 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Baltimore, steaming the Orioles up from -135 to -145. Baltimore has value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. Non-division road favorites are 264-170 (61%) this season. The Orioles are receiving 69% of bets but 92% of money at DraftKings, a sharp bet discrepancy. Baltimore has the more rested bullpen, pitching 11.1 innings over the last three games compared to 16.1 innings for Washington. The Nats are just 2-10 in Corbin's last 12 starts. The Orioles are 15-7 as a favorite and 26-18 against lefties. The Nats are 41-82 as a dog, 35-56 against righties and 22-48 at home, the worst home record in MLB. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 8. When the total is 8.5 or higher in a non-division game, the under is 317-270 (54%) this season. The under is 4-1 in the last five Orioles games and 5-0 in last the five road games. The under is 4-2 in the last six Nats games at home.

 

7:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (86-56) at Boston Red Sox (69-73)

The Yankees edged the Red Sox 7-6 in last night night's series opener, cashing as -155 road favorites in extra innings. In tonight's rematch, New York starts lefty Nestor Cortes (9-4, 2.73 ERA) and Boston sends out young righty Brayan Bello (1-5, 5.79 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -135 road favorite and the Red Sox a +120 home dog. The public is all over the Yankees laying the short chalk. However, despite 80% of bets taking the Yankees we've seen New York fall from -135 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the Sox at plus money and dropping Boston from +120 to +110. The Red Sox have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a high total game (9). The Red Sox have the edge at the plate, hitting .260 compared to .239 for New York. The Yankees are just 1-4 in Cortes' last five starts. Boston is 19-11 against lefties (compared to just 50-62 against righties).

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