Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

marlins

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben Wilson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss several MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (41-25) at Cincinnati Reds (23-44) 

The Dodgers took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 8-2 as -175 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (8-0, 2.82 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with righty Luis Castillo (2-4, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -160 road favorite and the Reds a +145 home dog. Pros seem to be thinking "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," and have steamed the Dodgers up from -160 to -175. Non-division road favorites are 129-69 (65%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous year against teams who did not are 272-147 (65%). The Dodgers are 40-25 as a favorite, 21-13 on the road and 27-17 against righties. The Reds are 17-32 as a dog, 12-21 at home and 7-12 against leftys. Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 against Cincinnati this season. The Dodgers are +120 in run differential. Cincinnati is -70. Los Angeles is 6-0 in Anderson's last six starts. 

 

6:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (30-38) at Miami Marlins (30-36) 

The Marlins hung on for a 9-8 win in Tuesday's series opener, cashing as -120 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Colorado starts righty Chad Kuhl (4-4, 3.69 ERA) and Miami taps fellow righty Pablo Lopez (4-3, 2.85 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -175 home favorite and the Rockies a +150 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have laid the chalk with the Fish, driving Miami up from -175 to -200. Miami has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a game with a very low total (7.5). The fewer amount of expected runs scored, the more likely they are to come from the "better" team. The Marlins are 16-10 as a favorite and 16-14 at home this season. Colorado is 21-31 as a dog and just 11-19 on the road. Miami's biggest edge comes on the mound, as the Marlins team ERA is 3.93 compared to the Rockies' 4.90. Miami is +14 in run differential. Colorado is -58. 

 

9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (30-39) at Oakland Athletics (23-46)

The Mariners cruised in last night's series opener, winning 8-2 as -125 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Seattle turns to righty George Kirby (1-2, 3.56 ERA) and Oakland sends out fellow righty Paul Blackburn (6-2, 2.26 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a modest -120 road favorite and the Athletics a +110 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -120 to -130. Road favorites are 236-143 (62%) this season. The Mariners also have value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Athletics are 18-36 as a dog, 15-32 against righties and only 8-26 at home, by far the worst home record in MLB. Oakland is just 3-16 over their last 19 games. The Mariners' biggest advantage comes at the plate, where Seattle is hitting .232 while Oakland sits at .210. Seattle also has a team ERA of 3.90 compared to Oakland's 4.32.

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