Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

orioles

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast highlighting the top games of the day. For a deeper dive into Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Follow The Money this morning at 7:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

6:45 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (55-79) at Philadelphia Phillies (74-61)

The Phillies eked out a 3-2 win in Tuesday night's series opener, cashing as -230 home favorites. The Marlins have now lost eight straight games. In tonight's rematch, Miami turns to lefty Trevor Rogers (4-10, 5.57 ERA) and Philadelphia sends out fellow lefty Bailey Falter (3-3, 4.08 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -165 home favorite and the Marlins a +150 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They fading the free-falling Marlins, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -175. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Marlins are 0-5 in Rogers' last five starts. On the flip side, Falter has posted a 2.45 ERA in three August starts. The Phillies are 6-1 in Falter's last seven starts. Philadelphia will lean on their bats, hitting .254 compared to .227 for Miami. Philadelphia leads the season series 9-5. We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible dip down to 7.5. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from right. The under is 12-4 in the last 16 road games for Miami. 

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (75-60) at Baltimore Orioles (72-64)

This is the final game of a four-game set. The Blue Jays took the first two games of the series, winning 7-3 as -175 road favorites and 8-4 as -130 road favorites. Then the Orioles bounced back with a 9-6 win yesterday, cashing as slight -110 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, Toronto hands the ball to righty Alek Manoah (13-7, 2.48 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (6-4, 3.22 ERA). This line opened with the Blue Jays listed as a -150 road favorite and the Orioles a 135 home dog. Despite the public laying the chalk, we've seen Toronto fall slightly from -150 to -145. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Orioles. with respected money moving Baltimore from +135 to +130. The Orioles have value as a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Baltimore leads the season series 7-5.The Orioles are 5-1 in Kremer's last six starts. Kremer has given up two earned runs or less in four straight starts. The Blue Jays are just 1-4 in Manoah's last five starts. 

 

7:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (48-88) at St. Louis Cardinals (80-56)

These two NL non-division foes have split the first two games of this four-game set. The Nats stole the opener 6-0, cashing as hefty 210 road dogs. Then the Cardinals bounced back with a 4-1 win last night, taking care of business as -250 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Washington starts righty Cory Abbott (0-2, 4.39 ERA) and St. Louis sends out lefty Jordan Montgomery (8-3, 3.15 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -290 home favorite and the Nats a +275 road dog. We've seen St. Louis creep up from -290 to -300 at some shops, signaling some respected money in their favor. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 521-291 (64%) this season. The Cardinals are 6-0 in Montgomery's six starts since being acquired from the Yankees at the trade deadline. Montgomery has given up zero earned run in 4 of his 6 starts with St. Louis. Pros are also leaning on a low scoring game, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall down to 7.5. The forecast calls for high 70s with wind blowing in from center at 5-10 MPH. The under is 4-1 in five head-to-head matchups between these teams. The under is 5-2 in the last seven Cardinals games and 10-15 in the last 15 Nats games. 

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