Wednesday MLB Sharp Report


For an in depth breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


2:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (58-51) at Milwaukee Brewers (59-50)

The Brewers took Tuesday night's Interleague series opener 5-3, cashing as -165 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Tampa Bay starts lefty Jeffrey Springs (4-3, 2.50 ERA) and Milwaukee hands the ball to righty Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.49 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -150 home favorite and the Rays a +135 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Milwaukee, steaming the Brewers up from -150 to -160. Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Brewers also have value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the "better" team. Milwaukee is 49-38 as a favorite and 28-22 at home. Tampa Bay is 15-20 as a dog and 25-30 on the road. Milwaukee leads the season series 3-0. The total is 7.5 with the under heavily juiced to -120, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 7. 


7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (57-52) at Detroit Tigers (43-68)

The Guardians won last night's series opener 5-2, taking care of business as -200 road favorites. Cleveland has now won three straight while Detroit falls to 2-8 in their last ten. In tonight's rematch, Cleveland turns to righty Aaron Civale (2-5, 6.17 ERA) and Detroit counters with fellow righty Drew Hutchinson (1-5, 4.37 ERA). This line opened with the Guardians listed as a -150 road favorite and the Tigers a +135 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Cleveland, steaming the Guardians up from -150 to -165. Road favorites are 363-242 (60%) this season. Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Guardians are 30-17 as a favorite. The Tigers are 34-57 as a dog. Cleveland holds a big edge at the plate, hitting .251 compared to .226 for Detroit. 


8:10 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (56-54) at Kansas City Royals (45-66)

After dropping the series opener 4-2, the White Sox bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, cashing as -128 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Chicago sends out righty Johnny Cueto (4-5, 2.91 ERA) and Kansas City taps lefty Kris Bubic (2-6, 5.27 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -125 road favorite and the Royals a +115 home dog. Pros have pounced on Chicago laying the short chalk, steaming the White Sox up from -125 to -140. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 418-243 (63%). Chicago is 38-31 as a favorite and 31-25 on the road. Kansas City is 32-55 as a dog and 26-32 at home. Cueto has given up 3 runs or less in 12 straight starts. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible fall down to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. The under is 8-3 in the last 11 White Sox games and 8-3 in the last 11 Royals games at home.

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