Wednesday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...


7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (36-27) at Washington Nationals (23-41)

The Braves have taken the first two games of this NL East series, winning the opener 9-5 as -160 road favorites and then winning again on Tuesday 10-4 as -280 road favorites. Atlanta has now won 13-straight games while Washington has now dropped three straight. In tonight's series finale, the Braves hand the ball to righty Spencer Strider (2-2, 2.35 ERA) and the Nats counter with fellow righty Erick Fedde (4-4, 4.87 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -165 road favorite and Washington a +150 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing red-hot Atlanta to sweep, steaming the Braves up from -165 to -175. Road favorites are 211-125 (63%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against opponents who did not are 258-136 (66%). The Braves are 29-15 as a favorite and 16-13 on the road. The Nats are 18-37 as a dog and just 11-21 at home. Atlanta is +38 in run differential. Washington is -96. 
4:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (36-28) at Seattle Mariners (28-34)
These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series. The Twins won the opener 3-2, cashing as short -105 road dogs. Then the Mariners bounced back with a 5-0 win last night, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Minnesota starts veteran righty Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.41 ERA) and Seattle taps lefty Marco Gonzales (3-6, 3.63 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a modest -120 road favorite and the Mariners a +100 home dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with Minnesota, steaming the Twins up from -120 to -135. Non-division road favorites are 120-60 (67%) this season. The Twins also have value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. Minnesota is 24-12 as a favorite and 12-8 against lefties. Seattle is 14-22 as a dog and 23-24 against righties. The Twins are batting .251 while the Mariners are hitting .237. Minnesota is +21 in run differential. Seattle is -9. 
10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (29-33) at Los Angeles Dodgers (37-23)
The Dodgers took last night's Freeway Series opener 2-0, cashing as hefty -210 home favorites. The Angels are now just 2-17 over their last 19 games. In tonight's rematch, the Angels send out lefty Reid Detmers (2-2, 3.83 ERA) and the Dodgers rebuttal with fellow southpaw Tyler Anderson (7-0, 3.07 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -175 home favorite and the Angels a +160 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Dodgers up from -175 to -190. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against opponents who did not are 258-136 (66%) this season. The Dodgers are 13-8 against righties, 24-15 as a favorite and 18-10 at home this season. Meanwhile, the Angels are 8-8 against lefties, 4-15 as a dog and 12-16 on the road. The Dodgers are +107 in run differential. The Angels are +7. 
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