Wednesday MLB Sharp Report


For an in-depth breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to check out the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I will also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


12:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (55-48) at Atlanta Braves (63-41)

The Braves took cruised to a 13-1 victory over the Phillies in Tuesday night's series opener, taking care of business as -240 home favorites. In this early afternoon rematch, Philadelphia hands the ball to righty Zack Wheeler (9-5, 2.77 ERA) and Atlanta counters with fellow righty Charlie Morton (5-5, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -125 home favorite and the Phillies a +115 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with Atlanta, steaming the Braves up from -125 to -135. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 397-226 (64%). Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Braves are 55-26 as a favorite, 37-21 at home and 38-30 against righties. Atlanta holds the edge at the plate (hitting .250 versus .247) and on the mound (team ERA 3.57 vs 3.85). Atlanta has won four straight and is 7-3 since the All Star Break.


1:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (56-49) at New York Yankees (70-35)

These AL non-division foes have split the first two games of the series. The Yankees took the opener 7-2, cashing as -180 home favorites. Then the Mariners bounced back with an 8-6 win last night, cashing as +145 road dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, Seattle starts righty Luis Castillo (4-4. 2.86 ERA) and New York sends out ace righty Gerrit Cole (9-3, 3.30 ERA). Castillo is making his Mariners debut after being acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline. This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -170 home favorite and the Mariners a +155 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed the Yankees up from -170 to -180. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season are 202-108 (65%) this year. New York also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Yankees are 66-31 as a favorite, 41-14 at home and 47-27 against righties. New York will lean on their bats, hitting .246 compared to .233 for Seattle. The Yankees are 15-6 in Cole's 21 starts this season.


9:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (70-33) at San Francisco Giants (51-53)

The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this NL West showdown, winning the opener 8-2 as -135 road favorites and then winning against last night 9-5 as -160 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles starts lefty Julio Urias (10-6, 2.71 ERA) and San Francisco trots out righty Alex Cobb (3-5, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -155 road favorite and the Giants a +135 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hands, steaming the Dodgers up from -155 to -165. Road favorites are 344-222 (61%) this season. The Dodgers are 68-32 as a favorite, 35-18 on the road and 47-21 against righties. Los Angeles leads the season series 8-3. The Dodgers are hitting .259 compared to .234 for the Giants. The Dodgers are 8-0 in Urias' last 8 starts. The total is 7.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 8. The forecast calls for low 60s by the Bay with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center. 

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