Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in-depth breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

3:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (56-67) at Colorado Rockies (54-70)

The Rockies won last night's Interleague series opener 7-6, cashing as -115 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Texas hands the ball to lefty Martin Perez (9-4, 2.80 ERA) and Colorado counters with righty Jose Urena (2-4, 4.71 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a slight -120 road favorite and the Rockies a +110 home dog. Pros have jumped on Texas laying the short chalk, steaming the Rangers up from -120 to -130. Non-division road favorites are 220-140 (61%) this season. Colorado is 37-60 as a dog and just 22-27 against lefties. The Rangers hold a big edge on the mound, sporting a team ERA of 3.99 compared to 5.06 for the Rockies. Texas also has value as an Intlerleague favorite with a line move in their favor. The total is 11 with some books juicing the over to -115, signaling some over liability and a possible rise up to 11.5. 

 

3:37 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (54-69) at Oakland Athletics (45-79)

The Marlins have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 3-0 as -150 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-4 as -155 road favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Miami sends out lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-5, 3.44 ERA) and Oakland starts fellow southpaw Cole Irvin (6-11, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Athletics a +105 home dog. Pros are leaning on the Fish to complete the sweep, as we've seen several books move from Miami -115 up to -120. Non-division road favorite are 220-140 (61%) this season. The Marlins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Miami is 30-20 as a favorite. Oakland is 39-67 as a dog, 12-24 against lefties and 19-41 at home. The Marlins hold the edge at the plate, hitting .232 compared to .215 for Oakland. We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is  7 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 6.5. Luzardo has a 2.70 ERA in four August starts. Irving has a 4.50 ERA and the Athletics are 0-4 in his four August starts. 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (62-59) at Houston Astros (79-45)

The Astros cruised to a 4-2 victory in last night's series opener, taking care of business as hefty -300 home favorites. The Twins have now lost four straight to fall to 5-9 over their last 14 games.  In tonight's rematch, the Twins start righty Dylan Bundy (7-5, 4.60 ERA) while Houston taps lefty Framber Valdez (12-4, 2.72 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -200 home favorite and the Twins a +185 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better team at home with the superior starting pitcher, steaming Houston up from -200 to -220. Home favorites -200 or more are 213-86 (71%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who missed the playoffs are 470-265 (64%). Houston also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Astros are 70-33 as a favorite, 40-18 at home and 50-34 against righties. Minnesota is 17-29 as a dog and 27-31 on the road. Valdez has gone at least six innings and given up 3 earned runs or less (a quality start) in 21 straight starts. He has a 2.21 ERA in three August starts. The Astros lead the season series 4-0. 

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