Wednesday MLB Sharp Report

astros

For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

2:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (52-45) at Milwaukee Brewers (54-44)

The Brewers edged the Twins 7-6 in last night's Interleague series opener, cashing as slight -110 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Minnesota hands the ball to righty Chris Archer (2-4, 3.41 ERA) and Milwaukee starts ace righty Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.20 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -185 home favorite and the Twins a +170 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed Milwaukee up from -185 to -195. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 371-207 (64%) this season. Milwaukee also has value as an Interleague favorite with a line move in their favor. The Brewers are 44-32 as a favorite, 25-20 at home and 39-28 against righties. Burnes has a 1.42 ERA in four July starts. Milwaukee is 10-3 in the last 13 starts by Burnes. 

 

3:37 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (64-34) at Oakland Athletics (37-63)

The Athletica have shocked the Astros in the first two games of this AL West series, winning the opener 7-5 as +185 home dogs and then winning again on Tuesday night 5-3 as +140 home dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, Houston hands the ball to righty Cristian Javier (6-5, 3.13 ERA) and Oakland counters with lefty Cole Irvin (5-7, 3.08 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -175 road favorite and the Athletics a +160 home dog. Pros are banking on Houston to avoid the sweep and have steamed the Astros up from -175 to -195. Road favorites are 324-208 (61%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 190-100 (66%). Houston has correlative betting value as a hefty favorite in a low total game (7.5). The under 7.5 is being juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible drop down to 7. The Astros are 56-23 as a favorite, 34-19 on the road and 23-10 against lefties. The Athletics are 30-53 as a dog, 15-34 at home and 25-43 against righties. 

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (52-45) at Baltimore Orioles (49-48)

The Orioles have taken the first two games of this four-game AL East set, winning the opener 5-1 as +100 home dogs and then winning again last night 5-3 as +165 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Tampa Bay turns to righty Drew Rasmussen (6-3, 3.13 ERA) and Baltimore taps fellow righty Tyler Wells (7-6, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a modest -125 road favorite and the Orioles a 110 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have grabbed the Orioles at plus money, dropping Baltimore from +110 to +105. The Orioles have value as a divisional dog in a Gambler's Fallacy spot (lowly Baltimore can't possibly win again tonight!). Baltimore is the most profitable team in baseball, producing 18 units won despite being just one game above .500. Tampa Bay is just 1-4 since the All Star Break. The Orioles are 28-19 at home. Tampa Bay is 21-27 on the road.

back to news


spacer_5

Headlines

View All

Google Play
App Store
Close