Today bettors have 15 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by VSiN betting analyst Adam Burke.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today...
6:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (61-77) at Cleveland Indians (68-68)
Both of these AL Central rivals are well out of playoff contention, with the Indians 8.5-games back of the second Wild Card spot and the Twins 16.5-games back. Minnesota has won both games this series, taking the opener 5-2 as -120 road favorites and then blanking the Indians 3-0 yesterday as + 115 road dogs. In tonight's third game of this four-game set, Minnesota trots out righty Joe Ryan (0-1, 5.40 ERA) and Cleveland rebuttals with fellow righty Triston McKenzie (4-5, 4.62 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as a modest -135 home favorite and the Twins a + 125 road dog. The public is hammering the Indians, who have a better record and are at home laying a short chalk price. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the Tribe dip slightly from -135 to -130. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Twins (+ 125 to + 120). Minnesota has buy-low value as a dog off a win and a road division dog with a high total. Minnesota has had Cleveland's number this season, going 9-5 in their head-to-head matchups.
6:35 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (65-75) at Pittsburgh Pirates (50-89)
The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 6-3 as + 120 home dogs and then winning again on Tuesday 3-2 as a slight -110 home favorite. In tonight's series finale, Detroit hands the ball to young righty Matt Manning (3-6, 6.29 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with veteran righty Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.23 ERA). This line opened with the Pirates listed as a -110 home favorite and the Tigers a + 100 road dog. The public says the Tigers have a better record and are due for a win after dropping the first two. But pros aren't falling victim to the Gambler's Fallacy. They're riding the hot hand and backing Pittsburgh to earn the sweep, driving the Pirates from -110 to -120. Short home favorites -130 or less are 236-172 (57.8%) this season. Non-division home favorites are 440-274 (61.6%). Pittsburgh is 6-3 as a favorite this season. Detroit is 52-66 as a dog. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise to 9.5. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5 MPH winds blowing out to left center. Detroit is 6-2 to the over in their last eight games.
7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (88-51) at Boston Red Sox (79-62)
Tampa Bay has won both games of this pivotal AL East series, taking the opener 11-10 as + 125 road dogs and then outslugging the Red Sox again 12-7 yesterday as short -105 road dogs. The Rays are now 17-4 over their last 21 games while the fading Red Sox have lost three straight. In tonight's series finale, Tampa Bay sends out lefty Shane McClanahan (9-5, 3.76 ERA) and Boston starts righty Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.73 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a short -110 home favorite and Tampa Bay a + 100 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. But pros are going back to the Tampa well, steaming the Rays from + 100 to -110. Essentially, respected money has moved the Rays from a small dog to a small favorite. Road favorites off a big win of 5-runs or more are 87-50 (63.5%) this season. The Rays are 11-7 against the Red Sox in their 18 matchups. The total is 9.5. The over is 2-0 this series. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center, which makes for ideal hitting conditions at Fenway Park. The Rays have been one of the top over teams this season, going 77-57 to the over. The over is 15-6 over the past 21 games between these teams. The over is 9-1 over the last ten head-to-head matchups at Fenway.