Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (9-15)


Today bettors have 15 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today.

1:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (61-84) at Washington Nationals (60-85)

These NL East rivals have split the first two games of the series, with Miami winning the opener 3-0 as -115 road favorites and then the Nats bouncing back with an 8-2 victory on Tuesday as -145 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Miami starts lefty Trevor Rogers (7-7, 2.73 ERA) and Washington counters with fellow southpaw Josh Rodgers (1-0, 3.65 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -110 road favorite and the Nats a + 100 home dog. Pros seem to be leaning on Miami at a short chalk price as we've seen the Marlins move from -110 to -120. The Marlins are 24-17 as a favorite this season. The Nats are 27-65 as a dog. Sharps are also leaning on the over, as the total is 8.5 with heavy over juice -120. hinting at a jump up to 9. The forecast at Nationals Park is conducive to offense: mid 80s with 10-MPH winds blowing out to center field. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 home games for the Nats. 

6:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (75-70) at Pittsburgh Pirates (53-91)

The Pirates stole last night's series opener 6-5, cashing as + 150 home dogs. The Reds have now lost three straight and fall to 4-11 over their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the lowly Pirates haven't packed it in despite their record. Pittsburgh is 5-2 over their last seven games. In tonight's rematch, Cincinnati starts righty Vladimir Gutierrez (9-6, 4.05 ERA) and Pittsburgh taps fellow righty Mitch Keller (4-11, 6.29 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a -155 road favorite and the Pirates a + 140 home dog. The public is hammering the Reds to get back on track and win tonight. However, despite this lopsided betting Cincinnati has fallen from -155 to -145. This signals some wiseguy action buying low on the Pirates as a home dog with a decent payout (+ 140 to + 130). Pittsburgh has value as a divisional dog with a high total (9) and a home dog with a line move in their favor. The over is 8-2 in the last ten matchups between these teams. Jim Wolf, the home plate ump, has historically favored overs (54%). 

7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (75-69) at New York Mets (72-74)

The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this non-division series. St. Louis won the opener 7-0 as -110 road favorites and then won again on Tuesday 7-6 as + 155 road dogs. The Cardinals have now won four straight while the Mets fall to 2-5 over their last seven. In tonight's series finale, St. Louis hands the ball to veteran lefty Jon Lester (5-6, 4.75 ERA) and New York counters with righty Tylor Megill (3-4, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -140 home favorite and the Cardinals a + 130 road dog. The public is riding the red-hot Cardinals at a plus-money payout. However, this line has moved further to the Mets (-140 to -155). This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Mets to eke out a win and avoid the sweep. Non-division home favorites are 452-288 (61.1%) this season. New York is 51-37 as a favorite. St. Louis is 33-41 as a dog. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 8 and the over is juiced up to -120, indicating a possible rise up to 8.5. The forecast calls for high 70s at Citi Field with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to dead-center, which aids the offense. 

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