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Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (8-25)

August 25, 2021 01:07 AM

Today bettors have 14 MLB games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Kenny White and VSiN contributor Will Hill.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today...

2:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (56-69) at Houston Astros (74-52)

After the Royals stole the series opener 7-1 as + 225 road dogs, the Astros bounced back with a 4-0 shutout of Kansas City on Tuesday night, cashing as -250 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Royals hand the ball to lefty Mike Minor (8-11, 5.34 ERA) and the Astros counter with righty Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -210 home favorite and Kansas City a + 190 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're laying the big chalk with the Astros, who have a far better record, are at home and have a glaring starting pitcher advantage. Non-division home favorites are 407-256 (61.4%) this season. Big home favorites -200 or more are 157-60 (72.4%). Houston is 61-39 as a favorite and 28-22 against lefties. Kansas City is 35-52 as a dog and 36-51 against righties. Houston will lean on their bats in this one. The Astros are hitting .268, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Royals are hitting .245, which ranks 12th. Houston is 40-25 at home while Kansas City is 24-38 on the road. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total down from 9 to 8.5. The under is 2-0 this series and 4-1-1 in the six meetings this season. 

7:07 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (73-54) at Toronto Blue Jays (65-59)

These AL playoff contenders have split the first two games of the series. The Jays took the opener 2-1 as -115 home favorites and then the White Sox secured a 5-2 win last night as + 115 road dogs. In tonight's rubber match, Chicago sends out righty Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.77 ERA) to face Toronto lefty Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.79 ERA). This line opened with the Jays listed as a -120 home favorite and the White Sox a + 110 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen the Jays fall from -120 to -115, signaling some sharp action on the White Sox at a plus money payout (+ 110 to + 105). Chicago has value as a road dog with a line move in their favor. We've also seen late season dogs with a strong winning record (.550 or better) perform well in August and September. These teams have cashed at roughly a 48% clip the past decade but have produced roughly + 60 units. Chicago also mashes lefties, going 21-13 against southpaws this season. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (79-47) at San Diego Padres (68-59)

These NL West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Dodgers are 9-1 over their last ten games while the Padres are just 2-8. Despite trailing the first place Giants by 2.5 games, the Dodgers are still -165 favorites to win the division at BetMGM. Meanwhile, San Diego has now fallen out of the second Wild Card spot and now trails the Reds by a game. Los Angeles took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 5-2 as -140 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles taps ace righty Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.11 ERA) and San Diego trots out lefty Blake Snell (6-5, 4.82 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -127 road favorite and the Padres a + 117 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand and backing Los Angeles to win again with their ace on the hill, steaming the Dodgers up from -127 to -140. Los Angeles is 78-44 as a favorite. San Diego is 8-13 as a dog. The Dodgers are 22-13 against lefties while the Padres are just 46-45 against righties. The Dodgers also have value as a favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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