Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (7-21)

July 21, 2021 12:38 AM

The NBA Finals are over and now baseball takes center stage until the start of football season. We have 15 MLB games today. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Ryan Ballengee, Adam Burke and Benjamin Albright. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today...

12:35 p.m. ET: New York Mets (49-43) at Cincinnati Reds (49-46)

These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series. The Mets won the opener 15-11 as + 105 road dogs. Then the Reds bounced back with a 4-3 win as -145 home favorites. In today's early afternoon rubber match, the Mets send out veteran Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.79 ERA) and the Reds counter with fellow righty Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -120 road favorite and the Reds a + 110 home dog. Pros have pounced on New York laying a short chalk price, steaming the Mets up from -120 to -135. Non-division favorites with 10-cents of steam or more are 187-113 (62.3%) this season. The Mets are 40-26 against righties this season. The Reds are 38-39 against righties. New York is 32-22 as a favorite. Cincinnati is 20-23 as a dog. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total opened at 10.5 and the over is juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 11. The over is 27-20 at Great American Ballpark this season. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (40-55) at Chicago White Sox (58-37)

The White Sox have taken two of the first three games this series, including a 9-5 come-from-behind win last night as -135 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Twins tap righty Michael Pineda (3-5, 4.11 ERA) and the White Sox trot out fellow righty Dylan Cease (7-5, 4.15 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 home favorite and Minnesota a + 120 road dog. Pros and Joes have both jumped on Chicago, driving the White Sox up near -140. Home favorites off a win have gone 323-203 (61.4%) this season. Chicago is 32-13 (71.1%) as a home favorite. Chicago is 50-22 as a favorite overall, Minnesota is 13-24 as a dog. The White Sox are 35-16 at home. The Twins are 18-30 on the road. The White Sox have owned the Twins this season, going 12-3 overall. There looks to be some liability to a higher scoring game. The total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. Minnesota has been one of the best over teams this season, going 56-34-4 to the over. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (47-48) at St. Louis Cardinals (47-48)

These NL Central rivals are about as even as it gets. Both have identical won-loss records and the two teams have split the first two games of this series. The Cardinals took the opener 8-3 as + 105 home dogs and then the Cubs rallied for six runs in the 9th to shock St. Louis 7-6 last night as + 100 road dogs. In tonight's primetime rematch, the Cubs hand the ball to ace Kyle Hnedricks (12-4, 3.65 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to veteran righty Adam Wainwright (7-6, 3.71 ERA). This line opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at around -105. Wiseguys have sided with the home team, as we've seen St. Louis move to a -115 home favorite. Short home favorites -140 or less are 230-173 (57.1%) this season. The Cardinals are 25-17 as a favorite. The Cubs are just 16-28 as a dog. St. Louis is 26-20 at home. Chicago is 19-31 on the road. Pros seem to be leaning on the under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast calls for 85 degrees with 5 MPH winds blowing in from right. The Cubs have been one of the best under teams this season, going 51-38-5 to the under. The Cardinals are 46-42-6 to the under. The under is 24-18-3 at Busch Stadium this season.

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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