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Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (6-9)

June 9, 2021 01:04 AM

Bettors have another loaded slate today, including 15 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be updating all the line moves and going over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving notable sharp action today.

7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (29-24) at Baltimore Orioles (22-38)

The Orioles crushed the Mets 10-3 in last night's Interleague series opener, cashing as a short -105 home dog. Baltimore has the second-worst record in MLB (trailing only the Diamondback), but the Orioles are now 5-1 in their last six games. In tonight's rematch, the Mets hand the ball to righty Taijuan Walker (4-2, 2.17 ERA) and the Orioles counter with veteran Matt Harvey (3-6, 6.62 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a hefty -150 road favorite and the Orioles a + 135 home dog. The public sees a layup with the Mets, who have a far better record and starting pitcher advantage. Plus, Gambler's Fallacy says "there's no way" the lowly Orioles can win again. However, despite a heavy majority of bets backing the road chalk, we've seen New York fall from -150 to -135. This signals some sharp reverse line movement buying low on the home dog Orioles (+ 135 to + 125). Baltimore has value as a dog off a win, a dog with a high total and an Interleague team with a line move in their favor (66-42, 61% this season). Home teams receiving ten cents of steam or more in a non-division game are 113-63 (64%). We could also be looking at another high scoring game, as the total is 9 with the over juiced up to -120. This signals a possible rise to 9.5. The forecast calls for a hot 85 degrees at Camden Yards with 5 MPH winds out to center. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (32-26) at St. Louis Cardinals (31-30)

The Tribe rolled in last night's Interleague series opener, winning 10-1 as -160 road dogs. With the loss, the Cardinals have now dropped six straight and are just 1-8 over their last nine games. In tonight's rematch, the Indians start Jean Carlos Mejia (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Cardinals send out veteran righty Adam Wainwright (3-5, 4.19 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a short -120 home favorite and Cleveland a + 110 road dog. The public is happy to fade struggling St. Louis and take the plus money with Cleveland. However, we've seen the Cardinals move slightly from -120 to -125. This signals some respected money buying low on the Cardinals to snap their losing skid. Interleague favorites with line moves in their favor are 42-24 (64%) this season. The under also appears to be taking in some sharp action. The total opened at 8.5 and has fallen to 8. The under is 12-8-1 at Busch Stadium this season. The weather is expected to be in the low 80s with winds blowing in from left center at 5-10 MPH. 

9:38 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (29-30) at Los Angeles Angels (29-32)

The Angels have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 8-3 as -150 home favorites and winning again last night 8-1 as -160 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Royals give the ball to Brad Keller (6-4, 5.50 ERA) and the Angels trot out fellow righty Griffin Canning (4-4, 5.82 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -125 home favorite and Kansas City a + 115 road dog. The public thinks the Royals are due for a win in this series, but sharp action has hit the Angels to complete the sweep, pushing Los Angeles up from -125 to -130. The total in this game is 9. The over is 2-0 this series. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season, with Kansas City 29-27 and Los Angeles 35-26. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center. The over is 23-10 at Angel Stadium this season, making it the best over stadium in MLB. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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