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Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (5-26)

May 26, 2021 01:26 AM

Bettors have a plethora of sweats to choose from today, including 15 MLB games, 3 NBA playoff games and 3 NHL playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth. We'll be joined by Ryan Ballengee, Benjamin Allbright and Duane Colucci.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few MLB games today receiving notable sharp action today.

2:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (26-22) at Chicago White Sox (28-19)

The White Sox have taken the first two games of this Interleague series, winning the opener 5-1 as -175 home favorites and winning again Tuesday night 8-3 as -127 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, the Cardinals send out righty John Gant (3-3. 2.04 ERA) and the White Sox counter with lefty Carlos Rodon (5-1, 1.37 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a hefty -170 home favorite and St. Louis a + 160 road dog. Sharps have pounded on the streaking White Sox to complete the sweep, as we've seen Chicago get steamed from -170 to -185. Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 71-50 (59%) this season. Home teams receiving 10+  cents of steam in a non-division game are 71-51 (58%). Interleague favorites with line moves in their favor are 31-19 (62%). The White Sox are 23-12 as a favorite this season. The Cardinals are 12-14 as a dog. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. Interleague unders 8.5 or higher are 28-20 (58%). Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with St. Louis 23-21-4 and Chicago 26-21. 

7:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (31-18) at Milwaukee Brewers (24-24)

These non-division opponents have split the first two games of the series. The Brewers won the opener 5-3 as a-110 home favorites and the Padres bounced back with a 7-1 win yesterday as + 117 road dogs. With Tuesday's win, the Padres are now 13-2 over their last 15 games. In tonight's rubber match, San Diego starts young righty Chris Paddack (2-3, 3.96 ERA) and Milwaukee taps fellow righty Adrian Houser (3-5, 4.53 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a short -125 road favorite and the Brewers a + 115 home dog. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the Padres as we've seen heavy money push San Diego up from -125 to -135. Short road favorites (-150 or less) off a win are 55-39 (59%) this season. The Padres are + 79 in run differential, tied with the Dodgers for the best in baseball. Milwaukee is -23. The Brewers are 11-13 at home. The Padres 13-8 on the road. We've also seen a slight lean to the over. The total is 8 with the over juiced to -115. The over is 2-0 so far in this series.

9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (29-19) at Arizona Diamondbacks (18-30)

This NL West showdown looks incredibly lopsided on paper. The Giants have the third best record in the NL while the Diamondbacks have the worst. Arizona has lost nine straight and are just 1-12 over their last 13 games. In tonight's series opener, San Francisco taps veteran righty Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.34 ERA) while Arizona gives the ball to righty Merrill Kelly (2-5, 5.05 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a modest -125 road favorite and the Snakes a + 115 home dog. This public sees an easy win with the far superior Giants and is rushing to the window to lay the wood with San Francisco at a relatively short price. However, if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. Despite this lopsided support we've seen the Giants fall from -125 to -117. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the home dog Snakes (+ 115 to + 107). Arizona has value as a divisional dog and a dog with a high total (9). The Snakes also fit another profitable system: a buy low dog off a loss against a sell high opponent off a win (7% ROI this season). 

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