Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (5-19)

May 19, 2021 01:09 AM

Bettors have a plethora of sweats to choose from today, including 15 MLB games, two NBA play-in games and 4 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be LIVE in the VSiN studio at the South Point Hotel to co-host Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. We'll be joined by Adam Burke, Host of ATS Radio and Ryan Ballengee, Owner of Golf News Net.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action today...

6:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (26-16) at Cincinnati Reds (19-21)

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 6-3 as + 115 dogs and winning against yesterday 4-2 as + 110 dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Giants send out ace Kevin Gausman (3-0, 1.84 ERA) and the Reds counter with vetern lefty Wade Miley (4-3, 3.69 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a short -112 road favorite and Cincinnati a + 102 home dog. Pros aren't outthinking themselves on this one. They're backing the hotter, better team with the starting pitcher advantage and have steamed the Giants up from -112 to -121. Teams receiving 10-cents or more of steam in their direction are 55-38 (59%) this season. The Giants are 14-9 as a favorite this season. The Reds are 5-8 as dogs. San Francisco is + 38 in run differential. The Reds are -3. Sharps also hit the over in this one. It opened at 8 and has been bet up to 8.5. The Reds are one of the best over teams in baseball this season: 26-12-2.

7:37 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (25-18) at Toronto Blue Jays (23-17)

The Jays dominated the Red Sox 8-0 in last night's series opener, cashing as -125 home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Red Sox hand the ball to veteran righty Garrett Richards (3-2, 3.89 ERA) and the Jays send out righty Ross Stripling (0-2, 5.91 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a short -120 home favorite and Boston a + 110 road dog. Respected money has come down on the Red Sox to bounce back with a win, forcing oddsmakers to drop Boston + 110 to + 105. Some shops are inching down to even money (+ 100). The Red Sox have value as a road dog and a divisional dog with a super high total (10.5). Boston is 9-2 as a dog this season and 12-6 on the road. We've also seen some under liability. The total opened at 10.5 and the under is juiced heavily to -120. Some shops are inching down to 10. The under cashed last night and wind was a factor. The forecast calls for more of the same tonight, with heavy 20 MPH winds blowing in from left-center. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Boston 23-19-1 and Toronto 22-18.

10:10 p..m. ET: Detroit Tigers (16-26) at Seattle Mariners (21-22)

The Tigers are 2-0 so far this series. Detroit won the opener 4-1 as + 165 dogs and won again Tuesday night 5-0 behind Spencer Turnbull's no hitter, cashing as short + 104 dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Tigers start lefty Tarik Skubal (0-6, 5.73 ERA) and the Mariners give the ball to top rookie prospect Logan Gilbert (0-1, 9.00 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a modest -122 home favorite and the Tigers a + 112 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen the Mariners climb from -122 to -132. This signals some sharp action laying the wood with Seattle. The Mariners are 12-11 at home this season. The Tigers are 7-14 on the road. Detroit is -61 in run differential. Seattle is -24. We could also be looking at a lower-scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop to 8. The under is 25-17 in Tigers games this season.

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