Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (5-12)

May 12, 2021 12:55 AM

Bettors have a plethora of sweats from which to choose today, including 15 MLB games, 6 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few MLB games today receiving notable sharp action today...

12:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (16-20) at New York Mets (17-13)

The Mets came from behind to earn a 3-2 walkoff win in last night's Interleague Series opener, cashing as -150 home favorites. It marked the sixth straight victory for the surging Mets. In this early afternoon rematch, the Orioles send out veteran righty Matt Harvey (3-2, 3.60 ERA) and the Mets counter with righty Taijuan Walker (2-1, 2.38 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as hefty -175 home favorites and the Orioles a + 160 road dog. Respected money has poured in on red-hot New York, steaming the Mets up from -175 to -185. Interleague teams receiving line movement in their favor have gone 33-23 (59%) this season. Teams receiving 10-cents or more of steam in a non-division game have gone 48-32 (60%). The Mets also have value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Mets are 15-10 against righties this season. The Orioles are 10-12. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping this total from 8 to 7.5. The forecast calls for low 60s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left-center. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Orioles 24-12 to the under and the Mets 17-12-1. Interleague Unders are 34-23 (60%) so far this season. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (12-21) at Chicago White Sox (20-13)

The White Sox crushed the Twins 9-3 in Monday's series opener, cashing as -115 home favorites. Chicago has now won four straight while Minnesota falls to 1-5 over their last six. In tonight's rematch, the Twins give the ball to lefty J.A. Happ (2-0, 1.91 ERA) and the White Sox send out fellow southpaw Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 3.79 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a moderate -130 home favorite and Minnesota a + 120 road dog. Pros and Joes seem to be aligned on laying the wood with the White Sox, as we've seen Chicago get bet up from -130 to -140. The big advantage here is the White Sox facing left-handed pitching. Chicago is 7-1 against lefties this season. Over the past two seasons, Chicago is now 21-1 against lefties (14-0 last season). The White Sox are 16-9 as a favorite and the Twins are 2-5 as a dog. Chicago is 10-6 at home and Minnesota is 6-10 on the road. Pros are also leaning under here, as we've seen the total fall from 8.5 to 8. 

9:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (15-20) at Arizona Diamondbacks (17-19)

The Diamondbacks have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 5-2 as -125 home favorites and then winning against last night 11-3 as -115 home favorites. The Marlins have now dropped four straight, In tonight's rematch, the Marlins have yet to announce their starting pitcher, while the Diamondbacks send out righty Zac Gallen (1-1. 3.04 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a short -115 home favorite and the Marlins a + 105 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on Arizona, forcing oddsmakers to adjust this line up from Diamondbacks -115 to -130. Teams receiving 10+  cents of steam and coming off a win have gone 46-33 (58%) this season. Arizona also has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). Arizona is 4-2 as a favorite. The Marlins are 8-12 as dogs. The Snakes are 8-5 at home and the Marlins are 7-11 on the road. 

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