Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (4-7)

April 6, 2021 11:57 PM

Bettors are in for a treat on Wednesday as we have a jam-packed betting menu filled with 15 MLB games, 9 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 p.m. ET to 5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

12:35 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (1-4) at Cincinnati Reds (4-1)

The Reds have taken the first two games of this three game set, winning 5-3 as -145 favorites and 14-1 as -155 favorites. In the final game of the series, the Pirates send out veteran Chad Kuhl (0-0, 3.00 ERA) while the Reds counter with ace Luis Castillo (0-1, 21.60 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a hefty -175 home favorite. Sharps like the Reds to completely the sweep and have steamed Cincinnati from -175 up to -200. Some shops are inching closer to -220. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor are 20-10 (67%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more are 8-2 (80%). The Reds are + 24 in run differential, 2nd-best in MLB behind only the Astros. The Pirates are -18. Pittsburgh is -14 as a dog this season. The Reds are 3-1 as a favorite.

4:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (1-1) at Philadelphia Phillies (4-1)

These NL East rivals have split the firsr two games of the series, with the Phillies winning the opener 5-3 as + 180 dogs and the Mets winning last night 8-4 as -127 favorites. In today's rubber game, the Mets will start lefty David Peterson (6-2, 3.44 ERA in 2020) while the Phillies counter with ace Aaron Nola (0-0, 2.70 ERA in 2021). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -140 favorite. Some books opened closer to -120. Regardless of the opener, respected money seems to be backing the Phillies at home as we've seen Philadelphia rise to -150. Teams with a line move of 10-cents or more are 20-10 (67%) this season. We've also seen some liability to the over in this one. The total is 8 and the over is juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the book.

4:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (3-2) at Miami Marlins (1-4)

The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this season, winning 4-1 as + 100 dogs and 4-2 as + 115 dogs. In today's series finale, the Cardinals give the ball to ace Jack Flaherty (0-0, 12.46 ERA) and the Marlins will send out Pablo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA). This game opened at a virtual pick'em with both sides listed at -105 odds. Respected money seems to be leaning on the Cardinals to complete the sweep as we've seen St. Louis rise from -105 to -112 or -115 depending on the shop. We might be in for another low scoring gamea as the total is 7.5 with heavy under juice (-120). Low totals have historically benefitted favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more like to come from the "better" team.

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