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Wednesday MLB Sharp Report (4-28-21)

April 28, 2021 12:41 AM

One of the early storylines of the 2021 MLB season in the winning performance of unders. Unders went 10-5 on Wednesday to improve to 177-152 (53.7%) on the season. A $100 bettor playing every MLB under would be up roughly $1,200 up to this point. When the total is 8.5 or higher the under is 103-72 (58.9%). Divisional unders have gone 83-68 (55%). The best spot overall continues to be inflated unders. If you see the total rise at least a half run (think 8.5 to 9), buying low and taking the under has resulted in a 29-13 (69%) record. Unders may not be the popular bet. We all know it's much more fun to root for hits, home runs and sweat an over. But so far this season unders have proven to be the smart contrarian play. 

Now it's on to Wednesday, where bettors have a plethora of sweats from which to choose, including 15 MLB games, 10 NBA games and 7 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action in greater depth.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few MLB games today receiving notable sharp action today.

7:07 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (8-12) at Toronto Blue Jays (11-11)

The Jays came up huge for sharps last night, beating Scherzer and the Nats 9-5 as + 105 dogs in the series opener. Tonight, the Nats hand the ball to righty Eric Fedde (1-2, 5.51 ERA) and the Jays counter with lefty Steven Matz (4-0, 2.31 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -155 home favorite and the Nats a + 140 road dog. Pros have rushed to the window to lay the chalk with the Jays, pushing Toronto up from -155 to -165. Some shops are inching closer to -170. So far this season, teams receiving 10-cents or more of steam in their favor in a non-division game have gone 49-37 (57%). We've also seen favorites with line moves in their favor in Interleague play go 14-9 (61%). The Jays are + 15 in run differential this season. The Nats are -28, which ranks worst in the National League and second-worst in MLB behind only the Tigers. The Nats have struggled against lefties this season, going just 1-4. 

7:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (11-12) at St. Louis Cardinals (12-11)

These non-division NL foes have split the first two games of this four-game series. The Phillies won the opener 2-1 as a -105 pick'em play. Then the Cardinals bounced back with a 5-2 win last night as slight -101 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, the Phillies send out righty Vince Velasquez (0-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Cardinals give the ball to 23-year-old Cuban righty Johan Oviedo (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will be making his first start of the season and sixth career start (4.60 career ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a slight -115 home favorite. The public loading up on the Cardinals at home against a Philadelphia pitcher with a high ERA. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen St. Louis drop from -115 to -107. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Phillies (+ 105 to -102). Essentially, this game is now a pick'em after opening with St. Louis as the favorite. The Phillies have value as a dog with a line move in their favor (5% ROI this season). We've also seen road dogs crush it this year, winning at a 47% clip but producing a 12% ROI with roughly + 26 units won. The Phillies are 9th in batting this season (.243). The Cardinals are 22nd (.220). 

8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (11-11) at Texas Rangers (10-14)

These AL West rivals have split the first two games of the series, with the Angels winning the opener 9-4 as -160 favorites and then the Rangers winning 6-1 on Tuesday night as + 140 home dogs. In tonight's rubber match, the Angels start veteran righty Alex Cobb (1-1, 6.28 ERA) and the Rangers send out righty Dane Dunning (1-0. 3.06 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as short -120 road favorites and the Rangers a + 110 home dog. Respected money seems to think this line is a bit low and has promptly steamed the Angels, driving the line up from -120 to -130. The Angels are 10-8 against righties this season while the Rangers are 3-10 against righties. Los Angeles will lean on their superior offense in this one. The Angels are hitting .267, second-best in MLB. The Rangers are hitting .227, which ranks 18th. We could be looking at a lower-scoring game in this one. The total is 9.5 with heavy juice to the under (-115). When the total is 8.5 or higher the under is 103-72 (59%) this season. Divisional unders are 83-68 (55%). 

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