Wednesday MACtion Sharp Report

chips

 

Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 11 NBA games, 3 NHL games, 40 College Basketball games and a trio of College Football games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for tonight's MACtion slate...

 

7 p.m. ET: Central Michigan at Ball State

These MAC rivals are trending in opposite directions. Central Michigan (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) has won two straight and is 4-1 over their last five games. The Chippewas just dismissed Kent State 54-30, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Ball State (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) has lost two of their last three games, most recently falling to Northern Illinois 30-29, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Ball State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on Central Michigan, pushing the Chippewas from a 2.5-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite. In other words, Central Michigan is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Both teams are giving up roughly the same amount of points on defense (CMU 28.7 and Ball State 27.8). The difference comes on offense, where CMU is averaging 32.8 PPG compared to Ball State's 25.6 PPG. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 62 to 59. Weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds and possibly some rain. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more and the total falls at least a half point, the under is 42-23 (65%) this season. Ball State is 7-3 to the uncer this season. CMU is 5-5. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Northern Illinois at Buffalo

At first glance, this matchup looks incredibly lopsided on paper. Northern Illinois (7-3 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) is 6-1 over their last seven games and just beat Ball State 30-29, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Buffalo (4-6 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) has dropped two straight and just fell to Miami Ohio 45-18, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Northern Illinois listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short spread with the "better" team. However, this line has fallen from 2.5 to 1.5. Some shops are even down to 1. This signals sharp reverse line movement grabbing the points with home dog Buffalo. Conference home dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 43-31 ATS (58%) this season. Buffalo is contrarian in a heavily bet game and also has value as a buy-low "Bad" ATS team against a sell-high "Good" ATS team. Pros have also gotten down hard on the under, dropping the total from 64 to 60. This is another "windy under" system match, as the forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds. 

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