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Wednesday Line Moves for UFC Fight Island 8

January 19, 2021 11:50 PM

Happy Wednesday! Today we have a loaded betting menu featuring 30-plus  college basketball games, 10 NBA games and 5 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Wednesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET to go over all of today's action.

Bettors are graced with a unique treat today as we have a rare 14-fight UFC card beginning at 9 a.m. ET on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The event is UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs Magny. VSiN's UFC betting expert Lou Finocchiaro has a list of best bets here

Let's discuss several bouts that are taking in big line movement on Wednesday.

Manon Fiorot (-190 to -205) vs Victoria Leonardo

Don't sleep in or you'll miss this women's flyweight battle as it's the first bout of the morning on the preliminary card. Fiorot (5-1) has seen 15-cents of line movement in her favor. Both Fiorot and Leonado (8-3) are 30-years-old, so they are even in terms of age. But Fiorot has an advantage when it comes to height (5'7'' vs 5'5'') and reach (66'' vs 64'').

Su Mudaerji (-435 to -500) vs Zarrukh Adashev

This Flyweight bout is on the preliminary card. Mudaerji is one of the biggest favorites on the board and has been bet up even further, steaming more than 50-cents in his favor since the opener. Mudaerji (13-4) holds several advantages over Adashev (3-2): he is younger (24 vs 28), taller (5'8'' vs 5'5'') and has a much longer reach (72'' vs 65''). We've also seen some money hit the under 1.5, pushing the juice from -115 to -125. Nearly 80% of Mudaerji's wins have come via knockout/TKO.

Ricky Simon (-330 to -500) vs Gaetano Pirrello

The Bantamweight fight is also on the preliminary card. Simon (16-3) has received the biggest line move of any fighter on Wednesday's card, a whopping 170-cent adjustment in his favor. Both fighters are 28-years-old. Pirrello (15-5-1) is one inch taller (5'7'' vs 5'6'') but Simon has a one inch reach advantage (69'' vs 68''). Pirrello is making his octagon debut and is also a late replacement, which might be a reason why big money is backing Simon.

Lerone Murphy (-300 to -325) vs Douglas Silva de Andrade

This Featherweight bout is the first on the main event card. Murphy (9-0-1) is undefeated and holds several physical advantages over Andrade (26-3). Murphy is much younger (29-years-old) while Andrade is long in the tooth (35-years-old). Younger fighters with a 5+  year age gap have historically been a profitable bet. Murphy is also taller (5'9'' vs 5'7'') and has much longer reach (73.5'' vs 68.5'').

Vinicius Moreira (+ 120 to + 100) vs Ike Villanueva

This Light Heavyweight grudge match is the third-to-last bout on the main card. It's also one of the only fights featuring substantial line movement toward the underdog. Moreira (9-4) has noticeable physical advantages over Villanueva (16-11), most notably in terms of height (6'3'' vs 6'1'') and reach (76'' vs 73''). Moreira is also five-years younger than Villanueva (31 vs 36). This fight may be quick as the total is 1.5 rounds and the juice on the under has moved from -120 to -140. Heavyweight bouts tend to lean to the under due to the sheer power of one knockout blow ending it quickly. 81% of Villanueva's wins have come via knockout/TKO while 89% of Moreira's wins have come via submission.

More Line Moves

Tom Breese (-135 to -150) vs Omari Akhmedov

Mounir Lazzez (-200 to -240) vs Warlley Alves

Dalcha Lumgiambula-Markus Perez Over 1.5 (-130 to -150)

Matt Schnell-Tyson Nam Under 2.5 (-125 to -145)

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