Wednesday College Basketball Sharp Report


Today March Madness continues with another pair of First Four matchups, plus the opening round of the NIT along with 12 NBA games and four NHL games. 

For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss several College Basketball games receiving big money from respected bettors today...

Best bets for every March Madness game

6:40 p.m. ET: Bryant vs Wright State

This First Four showdown features a pair of 16-seeds battling for the right to take on top-seeded Arizona in the South Region. Bryant (22-9 SU, 17-13 ATS) has won seven straight to improve to 17-1 over their last 18 games. Bryant just beat Wagner 70-43 to win the NEC championship, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Meanwhile, Wright State (21-13 SU, 15-18 ATS) has won five straight and just took down Northern Kentucky 72-71 to win the Horizon League, winning outright as a 1-point dog. This line opened with Wright State listed as a 2-point neutral court favorite. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen Wright State climb from -2 to -3.5, signaling pro money laying the short chalk. Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (79-78), with Wright State ranked 179th and Bryant 182nd. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 153 to 155.5. Some under buyback hit the under 155.5, dropping it back down to 154. The under has value as a contrarian bet at an inflated price. First Four unders are 24-14 (63%) over the past decade.

7 p.m. ET: Mississippi State vs Virginia

This is the first round of the NIT. Mississippi State (18-15 SU, 16-17 ATS) went just 1-3 over their final four games, most recently falling to Tennessee 72-59 in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 7.5-point dogs. Similarly, Virginia went just 2-3 down the stretch and just fell to North Carolina 63-43 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 4-point dogs. This line opened with Virginia listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Virginia, steaming the Cavs up to -2.5. Ken Pom has Virginia winning by one point (64-63). He has Virginia ranked 84th and Mississippi State ranked 44th. Virginia is -140 on the moneyline. Home teams are 176-74 (70%) straight up in the NIT over the past decade.

9:10 p.m. ET: Notre Dame vs Rutgers

This is the final First Four matchup of the NCAA tournament, with a pair of 11-seeds battling for the chance to play 6-seed Alabama in the West Region. Notre Dame (22-10 SU, 17-15 ATS) has lost two of their last three games, most recently falling to Virginia Tech 87-80 in the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 1-point dogs. Similarly, Rutgers (18-13 SU, 14-17 ATS) went just 2-4 over their last six games and just lost to Iowa 84-74 in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals, failing to cover as 6.5-point dogs. This line opened with Rutgers listed as a short 1-point favorite. The public is all over Rutgers, yet we've seen this line flip to Notre Dame as a 1-point favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Fighting Irish. Ken Pom has Notre Dame winning by two points (67-65), with Notre Dame ranked 50th and Rutgers 74th. Notre Dame is -115 on the moneyline. The total opened at 132. The public is hammering the over, yet the line has remained frozen, signaling sharp under liability. First Four unders are 24-14 (63%) over the past decade. These are two of the slowest tempo teams in the country, with Notre Dame 65.7 and Rutgers 64.9.

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