Weather provides edge for NFL Week 12 Under bettors

Yesterday was an even split in terms of NFL dogs and favorites as both went 6-6 ATS. The story of the day was totals, not spreads. Unders had a banner day, going 8-4 (67%). As we highlighted on The Lombardi Line Sunday morning, weather provided a massive edge to unders, specifically in terms of wind. Games featuring 10 mph winds or more went 7-1 to the under. 

Redskins-Lions Under 39 - Win

Bears-Giants Under 41 - Win

Jets-Raiders Under 45 - Win

Bills-Broncos Under 37 - Win

Eagles-Seahawks Under 45.5 - Win

Patriots-Cowboys Under 44.5 - Win

Bengals-Steelers Under 37.5 - Win

Dolphins-Browns Under 45.5 - Loss

Since 2003, the under is now 461-362 (56%) in games with 10 mph winds or more according to Bet Labs Sports.

The Redskins secured the biggest win for contrarian bettors and sportsbooks. Roughly 80% of bets laid the points with the Lions, who moved from -2.5 to -4. But the 'Skins covered and won straight up 19-16. 

Sharps and squares were both able to cash the Seahawks, who defeated the Eagles 17-9. Seattle received overwhelming support (roughly 75% of bets) and enjoyed the biggest line move of the day (plus 3 to -1.5). 

Pros beat Joes in the Sunday Night game as the 49ers throttled the Packers 37-8. Roughly two thirds of bets took Aaron Rodgers and Pack (plus 3 or plus 3.5) but sharps faded the trendy dog and got down on San Francisco. We knew this because of the sharp line freeze/reverse line movement toward the contrarian favorite 49ers. 

The public secured some sweatless wins with the Giants (plus 6, lost to the Bears 19-14 but covered), Titans (-4, beat Jaguars 42-20) and Bills (-3.5, beat Broncos 20-3). 

Wiseguys and contrarians cashed with the Bucs (plus 4 to plus 3.5, upset Falcons 35-22), Bengals (plus 6.5 to plus 6, lost to the Steelers 16-10 but covered), Jets (plus 3.5, crushed Raiders 34-3), Panthers (plus 10, lost to the Saints 34-31 but covered) and Cowboys (plus 6.5 to plus 5.5, lost to the Patriots 13-9 but covered). 

Tonight we have 41 college basketball games, 11 NBA games, 9 NHL games and, of course, Monday Night Football. For an updated betting breakdown of all of Monday's action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's check out where the action is going for the final game of NFL Week 12.

8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at Los Angeles Rams (6-4)

Talk about a marquee Monday Night Football showdown. Baltimore is the hottest team in the NFL. The Ravens have won six games in a row, including last week's 41-7 rout over the Texans as 4.5-point favorites. Baltimore is 5-4-1 ATS and has a plus 145 point differential, averaging 34.1 PPG on offense while giving up 19.6 PPG on defense. The Rams (7-3 ATS) bounced back from a 17-12 loss to the Steelers two weeks ago with a 17-7 win over the Bears last Sunday night, covering as 5.5-point favorites. Los Angeles is plus 45 in point differential, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense and allowing 19.8 PPG on defense. 

This non-conference grudge match between Super Bowl contenders featured different opening lines across the market. Some shops listed this game at a pick'em while most of the market opened with the Rams listed as either 3-point or 3.5-point road favorites. Regardless of the number, the public is rushing to the window to back to streaking Ravens. However, despite eight-out-of-10 bets backing Baltimore, this line has refused to move beyond 3.5 and some shops have even fallen down to 3. Sharps have targeting the Rams getting the hook at plus 3.5. Los Angeles has unique value as a super contrarian home dog in an extremely heavily bet game.

We've also seen some smart money hit the total. It opened at 47.5. More than two-thirds of bettors are taking the over, expecting another high-scoring Lamar Jackson-led performance. However, this line has dropped to 46.5, signaling sharp action on the under. The forecast calls for 6-10 MPH winds. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has been known to be an under-friendly official (unders 54.8%). The over is 6-4 in Ravens games this season but the under is 7-3 in Rams games. Unders in primetime games (Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night) are 24-12 (67%) this season.

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