Weather adds element to NASCAR handicapping this week

By Jeff Cogliandro  (Point Spread Weekly) 

NASCAR makes its way to the Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday to try out the new 2019 rules package on the third 1.5-mile track of the season. 

Based on the weekend of track activity, it is possible that this race could provide some of the closer racing and excitement that NASCAR had hoped to see with the new rules package. Happy hour was full of aggressive racing sequences as drivers moved all about the track in tight formations pushing the cars in what seemed to be a much harder manner than usual. 

Kyle Busch (plus 250) is the favorite to win the race, followed closely by Brad Keselowski at odds of 7-2. As great as Busch has been running, there is no way I can support a race win wager at such low odds. Although he is the defending race winner, in the last 4 of 5 races at Texas, he has finished 13th or worse. 

In my opinion, there are simply too many top contenders listed at 10-1 or less for one or two drivers to merit such low odds to win the race. Furthermore, the first practice session of the day on Saturday was eliminated by rain. When the cars did make it on the track for happy hour, the temperature was only 50 degrees. While the weather on Sunday is not supposed to be vastly warmer, there appears to be a decent chance of sunlight on the track. 

When combining a missed practice session, and at least a marginal weather difference, it should give us pause when considering how much emphasis to put into what we have seen this weekend. It also invites the question that perhaps some of the favorites should not be such profound favorites in their driver matchup wagers and more?

Below are the driver matchups that have made the value cut for the race. As always, stay tuned for any late developments and check current odds before wagering for the best prices.

Aric Almirola (plus 110): over Kyle Larson (-130)

Kurt Busch (plus 130): over Kyle Larson (-150)

Kurt Busch (-125): over Denny Hamlin (plus 105)

Chase Elliott (-145): over Clint Bowyer (plus 125)

Daniel Suarez (-105): over Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-115)

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