Watch for winds when playing totals today

December 1, 2019 04:33 AM

Welcome to the 13th Sunday of the NFL regular season. We have 12 games on the docket today, including several high profile showdowns like 49ers-Ravens and Patriots-Texans. But just as we discussed in yesterday's college football newsletter, inclement weather will once again play a prominent role when betting on totals.

So far this season, when the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 24-13 (64.9%). Since 2003, windy unders 10 MPH or more are 56% according to Bet Labs Sports.

Here are the windy under matches for today

19 MPH: Chiefs-Raiders

19 MPH: Jaguars-Buccaneers

17 MPH: Panthers-Redskins

14 MPH: Bengals-Jets

12 MPH: Giants-Packers

11 MPH: Dolphins-Eagles

Also, keep an eye out for divisional unders, which have gone 56.7% in December since 2003. 

Here are today's matches

Steelers-Browns

Broncos-Chargers

Cardinals-Rams

Colts-Titans

Chiefs-Raiders

For game-day analysis and betting updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 9 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be breaking down all the late smart money leading up to kickoff. 

For now, let's take a look at five notable games attracting big action from both Pros and Joes today.

1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (10-1) at Baltimore Ravens (9-2)

Bettors are in for a treat with two of the league's best teams going head-to-head in a possible Super Bowl preview. San Francisco is riding a two-game winning streak and just demolished the Packers 37-8 on Sunday Night Football, easily covering as a 3.5-point favorite. The 49ers are plus 169 in point differential, averaging 30.18 PPG on offense while giving up 14.82 PPG on defense. Baltimore has been even more impressive, winning seven straight, most recently crushing the Rams 45-6 as 3.5-point favorites. The Ravens are a league-best plus 184 in point differential, averaging 35.09 PPG on offense while giving up 18.36 PPG on defense. Both teams are 6-4-1 ATS. 

This non-conference heavyweight bout opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point home favorite. Two-thirds of bets, including early sharps, are backing the Ravens, which has quickly pushed this line up to 6. That's when you saw some wiseguy buyback on San Francisco at an inflated key number, keeping the line at 6 or dropping it back to 5.5. at some shops. It's hard to bet against Baltimore, but the 49ers offer great value as a road dog (67-43 ATS, 61% ATS this season) and a short road dog at plus 6 or less (45-22 ATS, 58% ATS). The total opened at 46 and has fallen to 45 despite two-thirds of bets taking the over. The weather is expected to be a factor here, with rain and 10 MPH winds. Brad Allen is the lead ref and has been profitable to the under historically (55.3%). 

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

The stakes couldn't be higher for these AFC South rivals. Both teams sit at 6-5 and look to keep pace with the 7-4 Texans while also staying in Wild Card contention. After starting the season 2-4, Tennessee has quietly rebounded and gone 4-1 behind Ryan Tannehill. The Titans have won two straight, including last week's 42-20 thumping of the Jags as 4.5-point favorites. Tennessee is plus 28 in point differential, averaging 22.27 PPG on offense and allowing 19.73 PPG on defense. The Colts are trending in the opposite direction. Indianapolis started 5-2 but has gone just 1-3 since, most recently falling to the Texans 20-17 (but covering as 3.5-point dogs). The Colts are plus 18 in point differential, averaging 22.18 PPG on offense and allowing 20.55 PPG on defense. Tennessee is 6-5 ATS while Indianapolis is 6-4-1 ATS.

This line opened with Indianapolis listed as a short 3-point home favorite. With oddsmakers typically awarding 3-point for home field advantage, this means the two teams are dead equal on a neutral field. The public is split and unsure who to take, but sharps been hammering the Titans, dropping the line all the way down to 1. Tennessee has value as a road divisional dog (20-10 ATS, 67% this season) and a short road dog plus 6 or less (45-32 ATS, 58%). 

1 p.m. ET: New York Jets (4-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-11)

Don't look now, but the Jets have won three in a row, most recently crushing the Raiders 34-3 at home as 3.5-point dogs. New York is -60 in point differential, averaging 18 PPG on offense and giving up 23.45 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, the Bengals remain a complete mess. Cincinnati is the only winless team in the NFL and has the inside track at the number one overall pick in the draft. The Bengals just lost to the Steelers 16-10, pushing as 6-point dogs. Cincinnati is -135 in point differential, averaging only 14.27 PPG on offense and giving up 26.55 PPG on defense. The Jets are 5-6 ATS and the Bengals are 4-6-1 ATS. Cincinnati has abandoned rookie Ryan Finley and will start veteran Andy Dalton instead. 

This line opened with the Jets listed as 3.5-point road favorites. The Bengals are an auto-fade for the public and three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with New York. However, this line has fallen to 3, signaling sharp reverse line movement on Cincinnati. The key for wiseguys was getting Cincy plus the hook (3.5). This is the ultimate buy low, sell high spot at the Jets have never been more appealing to the public riding a winning streak while the Bengals' stock has never been lower. Cincinnati is also a dog with a low total, a valuable spot historically. The total has ticked up from 39 to 41, mostly due to the upgrade at quarterback for Cincinnati. The forecast calls for 12-14 MPH winds. 

4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at Denver Broncos (3-8)

Both of these once-proud AFC teams find themselves on the outside looking in with little to no hope of reaching of the postseason. The Chargers have lost two straight games, most recently falling to the Chiefs 24-17 in Mexico City as 5.5-point dogs. Los Angeles has a plus 6 point differential, averaging 20.36 PPG on offense while giving up 19.82 PPG on defense. Denver is also riding a two-game losing skid, falling to the Broncos 20-3 last week as 3.5-point dogs. The Broncos are -42 in point differential, averaging only 15.91 PPG on offense while giving up 19.73 PPG on defense. Los Angeles is 3-7-1 ATS and Denver is 6-5 ATS.

This line opened with the Chargers listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both backing Los Angeles which has pushed the line all the way up to 3.5. This big move was tied to the fact that the Broncos are starting rookie Drew Lock (2nd round pick out of Missouri) at quarterback. The Chargers are coming off a bye, which means they enjoy extra rest and added time to game plan. Road favorites off a bye are 68.9% ATS since 2003. The total has dipped from 38.5 to 38. The under is 8-3 in Chargers games and 7-4 in Broncos games this season. The Chargers activated safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips for this game. Stud edge rusher Von Miller is "50/50" (knee) for the Broncos according to head coach Vic Fangio. 

8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (10-1) at Houston Texans (7-4)

This Sunday Night showdown between two first-place teams is shaping up to be a classic Pros vs Joes disagreement. The Patriots are tied with the 49ers for the best record in football and are coming off a gritty 13-9 bad weather win over the Cowboys (but failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites). New England is 7-4 ATS and boasts a league-best plus 183 point differential, averaging 27.27 PPG on offense while allowing only 10.64 PPG on defense. The Texans just beat the Colts 20-17 but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. Houston is 5-6 ATS with a plus 13 point differential, averaging 24.09 PPG on offense and allowing 22.64 PPG on defense. 

The line opened with the Patriots listed as short 3.5-point road favorites. As expected, the public is pounding the Pats. However, despite three-out-of-four bets backing New England, this line has fallen down to the key number of 3. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by wiseguys pouncing on the Texans with the hook (3.5). No one ever got rich betting against the Pats (Belichick and Brady are 62% ATS together since 2003). But Houston has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Texans also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday (Nov 21) compared to the Patriots playing on Sunday (Nov 24). The total opened at 44.5. Tickets are even but the line has risen to 46.5, signaling some sharp over money. However, the under in primetime games is 24-13 this season (65%). Also, Tony Corrente will be the lead official. The under is 57% with Corrente as the head ref. The under is 8-3 in Patriots games and 7-4 in Texans games this season. 

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