Valentine's Day Sharp Action Report for College Hoops

February 14, 2021 12:24 AM

Happy Valentine's Day! While the NFL season is over, we still have a loaded Sunday board filled with 25 plus college basketball games, 10 NBA games and 2 NHL games. For extensive betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by William Hill, Amal Shah, Mike Palm and Thomas Gable.

Until then, let's discuss where money is flowing for several college hoops games today...

1 p.m. ET: Central Florida at Cincinnati

This American Conference matchup features a pair of sub .500 schools that are both playing much better as of late. Central Florida (6-10 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) has won two of their last three games, notching wins over Tulane and Tulsa. Similarly, Cincinnati (6-7 SU, 3-10 ATS) has returned from their long COVID pause and won three straight games, taking down Tulane and Temple twice. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is all over the Bearcats at home laying the short spread, yet we've seen this line remain frozen at 5.5. Some shops have even hinted at a drop to 5. This signals some liability on road dog UCF plus the points. UCF has value as a contrarian road conference dog. Ken Pom has Cincinnati winning by three points, which provides some actionable value to UCF + 5.5. Ken Pom has Cincy ranked 92nd in the country and UCF closely behind at 105.  

2 p.m. ET: Tulane at South Florida

Both of these American Conference rivals are struggling lately and desperate for a win. Tulane (8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) has dropped three of their last four while South Florida (7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) has lost two of their last three. This line opened with South Florida listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and says give me the points in what looks like a close or coin-flip game. However, we've seen this line rise further toward South Florida, with the home favorite moving from -5 to -6. South Florida has value as a contrarian home favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" situation. Ken Pom has South Florida winning by five points, which is right on the number. He has South Florida ranked much higher (117 vs 150). South Florida has a two-day rest advantage, having last played on Wednesday while Tulane played on Friday. 

4 p.m. ET: Indiana State at Evansville

This Mountain Valley Conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. Indiana State (11-8 SU, 9-8-2 ATS) is 8-2 over its last ten games. On the flip side, Evansville (8-10 SU, 11-7 ATS) is just 2-5 over its last seven. This line opened with Indiana State listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has rushed to the window to lay the points with Indiana State, pushing the line up to -3. Ken Pom has Indiana State winning the game by four points, signaling actionable value. Ken Pom has Indiana State ranked 132nd in the country and Evansville 218th. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the low total from 126.5 to 125.5. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Indiana State 13-4-1 and Evansville 10-8. Evansville is the 3rd slowest team in the country in terms of pace (61.4). Only Mount St. Mary's and Virginia are slower. 


3 p.m. ET: Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins

These East Division foes are bunched up in the middle of the standings and looking to separate from the pack. The Capitals (6-3-3) are riding a three-game losing skid, falling to the Bruins, Rangers and Flyers. Meanwhile, the Penguins (6-5-1) are coming off a win over the Islanders. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a short -115 home favorite and we've seen respected money push the line up to -120 or even -125 depending on the book. Pittsburgh has value as a home favorite (77-36, 68% this season). The Pens are 2-0 against the Caps this season. Pittsburgh is also a perfect 4-0 at home this season. The total is 6.5 with even -110 juice on both sides. Both of these teams have been big over teams, with the Caps 9-3 to the over and the Pens 8-4. The two teams scored 7 and 9 goals combined in their first two matchups earlier this season. 

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